2003 $10 Jenkins-Dodge, BER (BC-63c)

News: Registration is free here at the CPMF!

Firstly, I would like to state that this post is not intended to undermine any Trading Post listing for notes.

Has the inevitable occurred and a hoard of UNC 2003 $10 Jenkins-Dodge, BER (BC-63c) notes come onto
the market ?  Less than a month ago there was significant chatter about the one UNC note that was being
offered privately and at shows with an asking price of $4000+.  Now within the last week five (5) UNC
notes have shown up on the trading post.

Based on the sequential serial numbers of these notes (BER 6129491-493 and BER 6129921-922) and the
small gap between them, can we assume that a brick, or at least several bundles of UNC notes exist ?

Has the "Holy Grail" of Journey notes now become an urban legend ?

This posting is only intended to evoke thought and discussion about the valuation of modern paper money
when insufficient time has passed to really gauge the "true" scarcity of a bank note.

Scarcity is defined as the condition of human wants and needs exceeding the availability of an item.

In regards to the BER (and others), has it been normal practise for catalogue prices to actually drop in the next issue from current prices when hoards of notes are found and available for less or do they tend to try to keep cat prices a little lower than market selling prices when they possibly can.  Since I have not been in this hobby long enough (nor studied price tends) are there any opinions on this?.  The current cat price of an AUNC BER is 1K. Could we actually see that drop if a few bundles slowly appeared on the market?

I`ve been waiting on the down fall because here in Calgary there's been a steady flow of BER`s showing up a least once a month for a few months at my local dears, who say buy now or pay much more later (I still don`t have one in unc  ).

I`ve been saying for awhile wait they have a few now and more will be on the way and sure enough here they come. They might become like the 1948 silver dollar scarce but available.


Harwil4u2

Just obtained, at the Edmonton show, BER6129085.
Does this mean there is a whole brick out there?
JWS

Based on John's purchase in Edmonton of BER 6129085 there does indeed appear to be a whole brick
of these notes.  Based on a print run of 8.6M notes it was inevitable that a large number of UNC notes
still existed out there.

With new information surfacing about the sudden availability of these "rare" notes in UNC, I would be
hard pressed to pay the existing asking price(s).  It would not be unexpected for the price of this note
to drop in the next Charlton catalogue if many more UNC notes show up on the market.  The existing
catalogue pricing is based on the small number of notes known to exist (see Wiki registry) but sudden
availability of UNC notes seems to cast doubt on the true scarcity of this note.

From the information so far, it is pretty obvious there in an Unc brick of
BER 6129xxx out there! If that is the case, Unc BER 2003 should be worth less than $100 each.

I would have to agree.  I have made some inquiries with collectors I know in Alberta and it appears
that a number of these UNC 2003 BERs are starting to surface out West.  My advice to any Journey
collectors who are looking for this note to fill a hole in their collection is to wait.  Based on the evidence
that is surfacing it is almost guaranteed that the price for 2003 BER will be revised downwards in the
next catalogue.  When that happens the market price for the notes will drop accordingly.

With all the antics we have seen on eBay in the past few days, I start to wonder if the BER notes could be modified BEP?  I'm not saying that the notes that forum members have purchased are frauds, I'm just speculating.  I don't have a crime lab like Arthur...just my 40 year eyes.  

Anyway, I will wait for a bit before I make the BER purchase.

I just spoke with a collector who was at the Edmonton Show and he said he saw UNC 2003 BERs at at least
three dealer tables (sudzee, C & P, Andy McKaig).

I think I am going to hold onto all my 2004 BERs now.  With only 1.4M printed they could be worth more than
the 2003 BER in the near future.

It looks like the Registry is showing some 6130s also.

b

Insert Quote 
With all the antics we have seen on eBay in the past few days, I start to wonder if the BER notes could be modified BEP?

A frightening thought.

I just spoke with a collector who was at the Edmonton Show and he said he saw UNC 2003 BERs at at least
three dealer tables (sudzee, C & P, Andy McKaig).

-- and likely asking a prince's ransom for them -- I'm sure!

This coincides to where several others have been found. They're out there but I would be surprised if there was a brick (more like a bundle or 2).  Currently-- they seem overpriced and I think they'll come down in book.  It may take some time though as I'm sure some dealers have invested too much for their stock!  Even if there is a brick - that is about the same # as the so-called SNR (single note replacement) and I know I (and a 100 collectors like me) would go for a 2003 BER (rare prefix- rare year) over a SNR any day!

As was reported on the CPMS newsletter (which I still haven't received) the market is soft  and that is when the really rare (or apparently rare) notes come up for sale.  It may be a good time to buy too.

BEL are now looking like the truly scarce ones to find.

While this may seem rather silly with such rare notes -- it is likely that the number-- what range it falls in-- (as well as condition) will play an important role in determining its selling price. 


Buyer beware and good luck!

I think I am going to hold onto all my 2004 BERs now.  With only 1.4M printed

A wise move as they'll move up with their famous cousins no doubt!

UNC BEP's are probably scarcer but they won't get the fanfare a 2004 BER (or BET) will get.