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Topic: The Pricing Panel  (Read 40285 times)
TheMonetaryMan
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« Reply #60 on: September 08, 2005, 09:24:57 pm »

Depending on the qualifications and credibility of the others contributing and your desire to grow this project Rick I will partially fund, promote, support and contribute pricing to your publication, backed by empirical data. I would however expect it to become the international standard and you and your team did whatever was necessary to establish it as such.

Perhaps that could then feed info to the pricing panel of the Charlton Guide, failure of the panel to fully contemplate the data presented would then create increased reputation risk for the Charlton Guide.

The best model of this in the world for Paper Money (I am aware of) is the Green Sheet in the USA and it is a $44 annual subscripton (published monthly), I am a subscriber and it is quite comprehensive and I find it extremely useful. http://www.greysheet.com/cdn/green.asp

I really can't go any further with my last post until the information is brought forward as it relates to the issues I indicated were remaining and likely where problems exist.

Thanks
Troy.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2005, 09:33:55 pm by TheMonetaryMan »
sudzee
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« Reply #61 on: September 09, 2005, 04:17:51 pm »

I beleive Charlton is a bit ahead of you Troy. Read this paragraph taken from an online add for the new coin book. I now guess we can expect changes in papermoney 19.

The Circulating Legal Tender section; Page 1 to page 249: All the new and current information has been added, new issues from the 2004 Poppy quarter, the 2005 Saskatchewan and Alberta 25 cent coins to the one dollar 25th anniversary of Terry Fox’s Marathon of Hope. A newly found 50 cent, 1881 copper pattern, and the new 2004 Test Token set are listed and priced. Prices have undergone a complete revision on two fronts, first by giving more weight to land and virtual auction prices realized, and secondly, by removing from the pricing columns all prices that are not supported by the ICCS 2005 POPS report. It is difficult to price a coin when after nearly twenty years it has never turned up for grading.

Gary

TheMonetaryMan
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« Reply #62 on: September 09, 2005, 04:47:07 pm »

A step in the right direction for coins.

I will leave it to the paper money market to decide if Charlton is ahead of me or not; after all I serve at the pleasure of the market.

The evidence I have suggests that the Charlton guide is lagging, not leading, and any steps to remedy this are extremely welcome and appreciated.

Troy.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2005, 04:51:01 pm by TheMonetaryMan »
OleDon
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« Reply #63 on: September 18, 2005, 02:46:16 pm »

Must confess to my first really detailed reading of the forum after just a quick look various other times.
These random thoughts on the "Pricing Panel" issue:

The Charlton catalogue is a "snapshop" of values collected some months BEFORE publication and used for twelve months more. Unavoidably, it cannot be current like the stock market. Necessarily a 'guide' only, not difinitive for values. I often use the comparison of the stock market where EVERY transaction is recorded each day and published but even then you have 10-20% ( or more) variations in value with many stocks in one month ! What would we say if stock market values were puiblished once a year ?

I noted the suggestion of a quarterly on-line revaluation but there is definitely the cost of that and I doubt it would be feasible - yet. The market is growing so that might work in the near future.

Unless we get into the US system of numerous grades of UNC then the Charlton has to use the most commonly understood definition and the values that go with it.

I sometimes wonder if we should not press the CPMS to establish three UNC grades. Simplistically: UNC 60 - 'commercial' unc, usualy handling, what you typically call UNC; UNC-63 a 'choice' note that has minimal handling, decent centering; the UNC-65, that "Gem" note that is utterly flawless in grade, centering and without counting creases or handling ( would eliminate 99.9% of 1935 and early 1954 issues). Then there would need to be a qualifier as to whether it is pressed or original - a serious and significant issue. Admittedly, the more complex the system the more scams and misrepresentation but we are getteing that anyway. As Charlton only uses one grade it means that better and lesser notes will sell for more or less and thus raise questions of the accuracy of Charlton. Unavoidable. The 1935 $2 English someone referred to as selling for $2,000 - was that a fluke ? Would it stand up to being graded by 2 or 3 knowledgeable graders ? One sale is not a market and that ius true of eBay, dealers lists or auctions.

EBay is a factor in the market but difficult to quantify. Most of us have had more disappointments on eBay that anywhere else so caution is needed here, BUT IT IS A FACTOR.

Given that the Charlton values are collected well before publication it raises the question of whether it should, to some degree, anticipate future prices and go that extra 10% or more that we all knoiw will be effectively the price in a few months. I raised this idea with the Editor once but it was not accepted. He may well be right. In all things, the market finds itself.

Lastly, for those who collect world notes, you know how outdated the Pick values are for better notes. Same problem. But if Charlton or Pick used anticipatory pricing all they do is instantly inflate prices and then they get out of date in 3 months anyway !

One could write a book the size of Charlton's on this issue. Just some thoughts.

Don
TheMonetaryMan
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« Reply #64 on: September 18, 2005, 03:06:37 pm »

Welcome Godfather,

Thank you for stepping into a loaded thread and providing some greatly appreciated insight and experience.

May I ask how long ago you presented the idea of time adjusting the price submissions?  Perhaps it is time to press the issue again to assist the market in providing prices that are more accurate by the time they reach the streets as the market is not as forgiving these days as it is growing exponentially. It doesnt serve the market well to have a guide with a 2006 date stamp on the cover reflecting prices of the fall of 2004 (with some exceptions).  Does the panel recommend we add a % above the price shown in the guide to estimate market prices by the time the guide hits the streets, if so is 10% a good rule of thumb?  If so why 10% and not some other number given that demand is at an all time high and supply at an all time low? (thanks to the Internet).

Other than the above, some of the outstanding concerns are:

Who submits, how many submit, how each person is weighted and how often they submit.

Glad to hear the online market and eBay are a factor, can you shed some light on what weighting is assigned to market prices coming from this market, as just mentioned who is/are the expert(s) representing the submissions coming from this market (the ever growing Mass Market)? One of the beautiful things about selling online is sales activity is transparent and the market can easily determine who is active and who is not and whether or not their level of activity is enough to warrant a leadership position in pricing the market for an increasingly educated collector and dealer base. I believe it is inevitable that online prices will be the single largest driver of valuations in many industries and ours is no exception, in fact we might already be there, if not we are getting very close.

Has the panel contemplated ways to make the pricing process more transparent to the market it serves (perhaps by including an accurate summary of the process in the guide itself) if so what was the result?

The market is perhaps more forgiving of Pick given that they price every country in the world and attempt to do essentially all notes. They also don't position their text as being annual and as such the market is forgiving of the fact it is not up to date.

Greatly appreciate your time as we work through this discussion and identify potential improvements as we are on the horizon of yet another essential text to our industry, a greatly anticipated updated and current Chartered Guide. There is a mountain of important sales data to be considered from the online market as it relates to the current market reality on chartered notes (rare ones in particular). In fact it is the online market driving much of the B&M activity.

As you say some dealers haven't had much luck selling online as you say, the result of this failure is that they are then followers and not leaders in the online market segment and probably should not be speaking on its behalf. Of course it is never too late for the dealers you spoke of to take another run at the online market segment as it is a huge growing market, but 1st mover advantage is gone and the challenges still great. A small share of the growing online market is better than no share at all however.

To be highly successful online requires a different skill set than traditional B&M sellers are used to, this challenge has been greatly misunderstood and/or under-estimated by most who came in under-prepared; some ran away at the 1st or 2nd failure.  Many thought and still think it is all about the "notes", the notes are but a part of the recipe for online sales success. Without the essential and unique online business ingredients failure is almost certain.

To maintain a decent market share in the overall market there is however a world of information available to them if they have the will and patience to reach out and expand their horizons.

Not to sound like a broken record but the Internet is the largest instant/liquid market available and growing faster than all other available sales channels, by far.

Thank you once again for investing some time with us here.

Troy
« Last Edit: September 19, 2005, 01:36:07 am by TheMonetaryMan »
Don_D
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« Reply #65 on: September 18, 2005, 08:49:41 pm »

Could we lock this tread and move on ?  It is painfully obvious to most that it is not going anywhere.  
    I don't mean to degrade the quality of the debate (although they can be much much shorter and to the point), we learned a lot.  It is time to move on.  
    I find that many of the discussions tend to drag on longer than need.

Don
TheMonetaryMan
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« Reply #66 on: September 18, 2005, 08:57:09 pm »

Good lord,

You have to be kidding, just when one of the greats of the industry makes his 1st post and starts to discuss some key issues.

Shaking my head wondering why someone who is tired of reading a thread topic continues to do so. Those of us who are still interested may want to have further discussion and we promise to "keep it down".

Troy.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2005, 09:01:08 pm by TheMonetaryMan »
runningonempty
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« Reply #67 on: September 18, 2005, 09:44:27 pm »

Is that the 2nd or 3rd request to lock this thread? ::)
Yet,it has more 'views' than any thread I've seen in sometime.
Why would you read something that has become irrelevent-at least to you?

I've taken an attitude to view responses from those more schooled than I,fantastic discussion.

When I have something WORTH contributing,I will,until then,trap shut.
Perhaps I'm setting an example others may wish to follow? ;D
Travsy
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« Reply #68 on: September 20, 2005, 05:58:31 am »

Quote

I sometimes wonder if we should not press the CPMS to establish three UNC grades. Simplistically: UNC 60 - 'commercial' unc, usualy handling, what you typically call UNC; UNC-63 a 'choice' note that has minimal handling, decent centering; the UNC-65, that "Gem" note that is utterly flawless in grade, centering and without counting creases or handling ( would eliminate 99.9% of 1935 and early 1954 issues). Then there would need to be a qualifier as to whether it is pressed or original - a serious and significant issue. Admittedly, the more complex the system the more scams and misrepresentation but we are getteing that anyway. As Charlton only uses one grade it means that better and lesser notes will sell for more or less and thus raise questions of the accuracy of Charlton.
Don


Fist off, is "old" synonymous with "senile"? Now that I've greeted you with the respect you deserve I, as you know agree with you in respect to a 3 level Unc category. Not a 977 level Unc category, just a 3 level.
I think realistically that that could be a doable option to press Charlton on, provided a consensus could be reached in regards to defining the standards. A man of your stature would of course have enormous influence in this.
I would propose the following due to the realities of the market.

Commercial Unc or Unc 60 could be in fact pressed. :o
Lets face it, 90% of the 37 issues and earlier are pressed. There is of course an enormous difference betweeen pressed and processed. Not to mention the fact that a lot of people weren't and still aren't aware that the 54 series, particularly the DF issues are supposed to be wavey. Charlton would do well to expand the information on notes.
Definitions  could be stated. As in "If the note still smells like money but is flat as a pancake, it's a Commercial Unc. If, on the other hand the smell makes your eyes water and it curls into a perfect "U" when held under a halogen lamp-No, that's not an Unc at all"

I'd be inclined to call the next level Original Unc. Nice, unsullied and perhaps an actual light counting crease. I'm pro light counting creases.

The last level would of course be the Gem. In this category Charlton could be very exacting. Essentially the note would have to be perfect in as much as paper money can be. I would even go so far as to suggest on particularly rare notes in this category Charlton does the  old "PWA" if need be to avoid the pricing issue altogether.

Would this stop the rampant over-grading? Probably not but it might slow it down. If one was to couple the above with tighter spreads in the lower grades, particularly AU to Unc as real Uncs are, for the most part ,simply not available in many of the series' it may slow down the tendency to over-grade by dealers and collectors alike plus make the collector more inclined to approach buying notes in a more serious fashion. As in actually looking at both sides of the note. That's usually the investor/collector that does that but in the end when they find out they've been screwed, the industry as a whole takes a hit. I could really care less about the "speculators". If they're gullible enough to believe the garbage posted on ebay and many other places by many they deserve what they get but we do lose a lot of genuine people to over-grading. They simply take their losses and move on. That is bad for everyone, both dealers and collectors alike-a line which is diminishing rapidly as the global market and the hobby continues to expand.

I think Charlton could do a lot in the above areas without a major expenditure. A broader explanation in the grades would do wonders on it's own.
As an aside I think it's better to be 10% low rather than 10% high or in your case-35% high.
In the end, the truly rare notes are going to sell at the price both parties agree on. 20% over cat or double cat, it makes no difference.








TheMonetaryMan
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« Reply #69 on: September 20, 2005, 10:19:04 am »

Don's remarks may have been in response to a read of the USA note grading thread (in this forum) before his post where, in response to a request for it, I laid out the world according to Friedberg.

The Friedbergs are using what is already considered a highly credible methodology. As indicated was likely going to happen in the other thread (as of yesterday) I have already started to introduce to the CDN market, very slowly, the Friedberg grading model focussing on explaining the 3 levels of UNC initially. Whether or not Charlton follows and does something similar will be up to those who put the guide together.

As far as the guide is concerned the matter of what I call broken or untested pricing logic on many critical issues is not comforted by the last posters comments, not even close. Anyone who saw what happened last night saw what happened when some more of the current pricing  logic was stress tested in a no reserve auction on a note where only one existed in private hands. Approx 550% over 18th edition prices, and my concern isn't as much that it sold this far over book, a concern is who is representing this data and ensuring it is properly factored for next issue? What about all the other online sales of notes where only a couple or less than a handful of examples exist and the pricing in the market in no way shape form resembles the pricing according to Charlton?

The market needs and deserves an improved approach. Once there is an acknowledgement that this is the case, and desire to take action, good things will come. There is an old saying that goes "the things you resist, persist".

Unless I am invited back into this thread or someone tries to dismiss or undermine the validity of the concerns raised or incorrectly interprets them I am going to give the market time to reflect on what has been said to this point.

Thanks guys.

Troy.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2005, 11:16:17 am by TheMonetaryMan »
rscoins
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« Reply #70 on: September 20, 2005, 02:42:49 pm »

The Charlton book has a method of obtaining prices from a group of people. It is hardly 100% perfect (but what is) in prices, but then what prices would you like to see?
The attempt is a cross-reference of contributors, including some of the largest sellers of paper.

If you have a better method, what is it?

Rick
Travsy
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« Reply #71 on: September 20, 2005, 04:10:26 pm »

Quote
The Charlton book has a method of obtaining prices from a group of people. It is hardly 100% perfect (but what is) in prices, but then what prices would you like to see?
The attempt is a cross-reference of contributors, including some of the largest sellers of paper.

If you have a better method, what is it?

Rick


Hello Rick,

I cannot possibly respond to this with the attention it deserves without registering another "personal attack" warning and a bunch of anal whining in respect to the party your comment is directed towards. Unfortunately some people seem incapable of understanding there are others with as much if not more knowledge of a particular subject. Now that that is out of the way I can move on :)

You have throughout this thread brought up valid points in respect to both the logistical difficulty and pragmatic issues regarding pricing in what is actually a very very small market though some apparently think it's huge. As the Trends editor you are probably in one of the best positions to comment on how small the market for both Canadian Coins and Paper truly is compared to other countries-which you have done.

To me the pricing methodology of Charlton could be enhanced by monitoring and factoring in major auction sales and Ebay sales. Of course the amount of qualification in respect to Ebay sales, unless sold by one of the major auctioneers would require a serious vetting process.  For this vetting process, I at this time have no answer.
There is a saying that ebay is the "dumb selling to the dumber". In many ways this represents the current selling of Canadian paper money on ebay in spades. It used to be the same in coins but finally everyone wised up and started only buying ICCS, PCGS and to a lesser extent NGC with prices reflected for the 3rd party graders reputation on grading Canadian Coins.
However, if Charlton was to have a person monitor ebay sales and final prices realized in both major live and on-line auctions they would I believe arrive at prices that more accurately reflect the market.
I'm thinking some young kid that can do part time work at minimum wage. Say a University graduate who majored in Computer programming and is currently working at Radio Shack  ;D
This cost could possibly be offset by Charlton increasing the price of the catalogue by a buck or two. It's the only game in town and we're all going to buy it anyhow.
The purpose of this would be to have a more hands on "feel" for the market as opposed to relying solely on the major contributors plus it would allow an averaging of note sales independently from dealers contributions. This would also pick up "aberrations" in the marketplace and discount them.  As in someone is dipping into the wine and gets "bid happy" on-line and buys a 1967 $1 NSN for 240.00. Okay, that's exteme but you get my point.
I think that might be a start.

Wayne.

P.S. Hey, at least I offered up a starting point.



« Last Edit: September 20, 2005, 04:12:27 pm by Travsy »
TheMonetaryMan
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« Reply #72 on: September 20, 2005, 04:10:43 pm »

Rick,

Thanks for your post, it was received in good faith. Just when I try to pull away I am called upon again, seems like you folks can't get enough. (Smiles).

This reply is yours:

Step 1:

Full admission that the concerns raised thus far are valid and that we have come a long way from your earlier position that this thread is "totally stupid".

Step 2:

An answer to your question.

My answer will be considerably different than the last posters.  Much of the extensive discussion thus far has already been on how to remedy the situation.

If you are interested or any and all members of the panel want to hear my answer (as you do) in greater detail I would suggest we move this beyond this thread and set up a meeting as this discussion has already reached a point where face to face would serve it far better.

At the meeting it would be helpful if the existing online and offline market experts on the panel were present to accelerate the sharing of ideas process. I believe we all want the market to have the best available information to work with, that is certainly my goal.

I can set up a conference room at Torex and we can meet there and conference in anyone who can't make it by telephone.

There are a couple others not on the panel but associated with the guide that I would like to see there and I would be willing to cover their travel expenses, as I hope is becoming clear by now I am dedicated to the cause and impossible to discourage.

Troy
« Last Edit: September 20, 2005, 05:46:41 pm by TheMonetaryMan »
runningonempty
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« Reply #73 on: September 20, 2005, 11:37:40 pm »

Quote
If you are interested or any and all members of the panel want to hear my answer (as you do) in greater detail I would suggest we move this beyond this thread and set up a meeting as this discussion has already reached a point where face to face would serve it far better.


What a great starting point imvho!
Your offer to pay the travelling costs of certain participants is most generous Troy.

Finally,if your offer/suggestion is acted upon,this would seem to indicate a real step forward in resolving  this most important topic. And as an aside,the market may interpret this bold initiative as forward thinking!

What a concept!

[Edited typo on "initiative" as per author's direction. There is an edit function, please use it instead of double-posting. --BWJM]
« Last Edit: September 21, 2005, 12:01:14 am by BWJM »
runningonempty
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« Reply #74 on: September 27, 2005, 11:59:49 pm »

Quote
If you are interested or any and all members of the panel want to hear my answer (as you do) in greater detail I would suggest we move this beyond this thread and set up a meeting as this discussion has already reached a point where face to face would serve it far better.
 
At the meeting it would be helpful if the existing online and offline market experts on the panel were present to accelerate the sharing of ideas process. I believe we all want the market to have the best available information to work with, that is certainly my goal.
 
I can set up a conference room at Torex and we can meet there and conference in anyone who can't make it by telephone.
 
There are a couple others not on the panel but associated with the guide that I would like to see there and I would be willing to cover their travel expenses, as I hope is becoming clear by now I am dedicated to the cause and impossible to discourage.


Troy:

Might we have an up-date on your most generous and forward thinking offer.
Has this moved forward? Do we see progress in the foreseeable future towards a meeting to address what must be of concern to so many.
 

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