CPM Forum
General => General Forum Comments => Topic started by: runningonempty on August 28, 2005, 10:13:53 pm
-
Take note of the members of the pricing panel in the 18th Edition Charlton.
After considerable discussion with many members of the collecting community,at shows and various other venues,the consensus leaned towards a few of these contributors being out of touch.
For instance,the discussion would eventually come to how much did/do these pricing panel members sell when it comes to paper money?Are they some of the top sellers in the community?
Why not have a few ebay members that are the top sellers in Canadian Paper Money as members of the pricing panel? Would this not help to set more realistic and more current pricing regarding trends?
Do the old school dealers,having at one time paid $600 for a 1935 English $2.00 Unc find it difficult to see the updated Catalogue reflect a current trend to $2000 for the same note?
I recently saw the same above mentioned note sell on ebay for $2200?So is $2000 unreasonable? Where do they come up with $1500 in the current edition? Try and buy one at that price!
Several respected members of this forum have stated the current 18th Edition is so out of date and touch with reality in regards to rare uncirculated notes,that one wonders if power sellers and respected members of the ebay community would help to alleviate this imbalance?
So many questions.Outta be a conterversial subject ;)
I have left out the names of the pricing panel that imo are valid contibuors,as well as ones I feel are redundant.But that does not alter reality,or perceptions.
What say you?
-
Buy that man a beer and send me the bill.
Enjoy the thread guys, I am sitting this one out unless invited for specific comment.
Troy.
-
Some of the prices that i feel are very underpriced in the 18th edition (by series)
1954 Modified
$5 *R/C
1969-1979 Multicoloured
$1 AAX/EAX Lawson-Bouey Litho.
$10 EDX Crow-Bouey Steel engr.
1986-1991 Birds
$5 ANX, FNX Bonin-Thiessen
$10 BDH Thiessen-Crow
$10 ATX Bonin-Thiessen
$20 EVH No Back Plate No.
$50 EHX Below 0.9m
In my opinion
-
Hi All !
I see that all Dominion Specimen Notes are very undervalued.
dcollector
-
I have talked to several past and present members of the pricing panel that have felt the fustration of their opinions regarding the increasing value(s) of paper money being ignored, and relegated to the trash bin of ideas.
Several have quit or given up in total fustration.
So again,what in heavens name is guiding the decisions of this pricing panel? Has the old guard to much sway to allow the "new" upward trends to take hold in print?
At the risk of being repetitive,has anyone tried to buy a Gem Unc 54 Devils Face $5 Coyne/Towers at current book of $285?
HA! Saw one offered at a dealers in the lower mainland for $350.I stated that's quite a premium over THE NEW BOOK.His reply"Try and get one,and how do I replace it?"
No,it aint adding up.
Just to clarify,I'm not attacking the Charlton Press or it's members.A guide is a guide is a guide.
But a guide is like a map.You need it so as not to get lost. Man o man,every time I try to buy at the current unc price for rare notes,people laugh in my face.
I might as well be lost.
respectfully runningonempty.
Note to Troy:As one of ebays top,if not the top seller in Canadian Paper Money,your opinion is highly regarded here to this novice.
-
The Charlton Catalogue is out of date before it hits the stands.
I pay over catalogue on 60% of the notes I buy. Good luck getting most of the notes at catalogue.
For example:
Try to get a 1954 *N/Y for $300 (Yah Right). I'll gladly pay someone $500 for a nice Choice UNC...... Any takers ?? ;)
John
-
Before this topic shifts a little off-centre, let's try to avoid repeating over and over again (JB) which notes we think are undervalued.
Also just in case anyone was thinking of it, please do not make any personal remarks about any particular member of the pricing panel, or anyone in particular, period. We've been down that road before with opinionated comments directed at various individuals, and I will rain on the parade of everyone who tries bringing us down that road again.
On that note, back to the discussion! :D Please focus your replies to the matter addressed by runningonempty.
Troy, if I buy myself a beer, can I send you the bill? ;D
-
Sure,
All you need to do is say you agree with runningonempty and I will gladly accept the receipt :)
He has raised an ultra important topic that should not be just another discussion but instead a call to action. Australian notes are up an average of 30% year over year now because they have their act together and the market is not being artificially constrained. The visionaires there also have a global view of the market.
I received several emails and calls from domestic and international collectors and traders of Canadian Paper Money that echoed this "I received the 18th edition of the price guide but where are the current prices?". My heart sank each time and I sensed we as an industry and hobby are starting to lose some internal and international respect. No matter how hot the market is it always seems to be modest incremental 5-10% gains on certain notes (with a few exceptions), the same old comfortable year over year approach. It is time to cut the noose being held tightly around the neck of our market.
Having said that the Charlton guide is still ultra important and deserves great respect, I believe it is a very impressive piece of work, but it is a critical time for it to evolve and I believe lagging behind in this regard by 1-2 years. This can easily be forgiven by the market with a few brave steps now.
The market needs and wants what it believes is proper accounting for the evolution of Internet trading which has and still is changing the face of the earth in just about every industry known. It would also benefit if it had someone the market believed represented the "leading edge" of the overall market.
There are seemingly two "versions" of market realities that exist, the one as presented by Charlton and the one that I know, which is the same one most of you know too. There needs to be one version for complete market harmony and credibility.
The market is a monster that can come back to get you if you don't take proper care of it, feed it what it wants and needs and it will love you for it.
Troy
p.s. see what you made me go and do, I was supposed to sit this one out ;D
-
Just a little word to mention about this post. From what I have heard there are always complaints about pricing. The panel has to be careful about pricing. When notes are priced too high, the collectors cry. When they are priced too low the sellers cry. I myself are for the collectors and as far as the dealers go, they buy at a certain percentage of the catalogue value using Charlton as a guide and then sell the notes at a profit. Personally I don't see a problem with the pricing.
Tom
-
Hi Tom,
Good to hear from you.
I think some anxiety may be coming from the fact that the percentage that dealers are paying exceeds 100% on some critical issues and it is hard to reconcile that and the concept of a "new price guide" in the same thought. Collectors would also like be informed as to what is being done to account for the evolving online market.
Collectors are accustomed to an environment where dealers pay a number less than 100% on the buy side and attempt to sell it at full book or a number near that.
I would rather not single out a long list of notes that dealer buy price exceeds 18th edition book price as I would prefer to keep this more at the 30,000 foot level.
I believe there is valid reason to at least reconsider the current approach to pricing.
Troy
-
I don't want to get into this thing too deeply so I will restrict my comments to a few notes that have been specifially mentioned and current pricing in the new Charlton.
1954 C/T devils face $5 GEM uncirculated :
If the dealer decides that this note is far superior to a regular perfect uncirculated, as would be indicated by his use of "GEM", a premium of 25% over book is not unreasonable. Charlton does make reference to premiums for exceptional notes.
1991 $20 EVH NBPN UNC:
I beleive an uncirculated example was sold last winter at the Hamilton Auction for somewhere around 2500.00. The auction process attracted multiple bidders vying for what was thought, by some, to possibly be the only one of its grade. Was the hammer price wrong? Multiple bidders on a scarce item often lose control in the heat of the moment. Another example showed itself a few weeks ago in Hong Kong. On a one on one sale the realised price was 700.00 cdn. Which price is right? As a buyer of one of these notes I would think Charltons price is about right. If I had one to sell I would certainly make a big deal over the auction price realised and demand a price well in excess of Charltons'.
1935 $2 English in UNC:
Sold on eBay at 2200.00. I don't know if this particular sale materialized before or after the March 31 deadline for repricing but it is a consideration. I take it that this note was quite desirable because it attracted multiple bidders. As with many eBay auctions I expect that the item was well promoted and the owner had a good reputation. Add this to a frenzied multiple bidder situation and the I'm not a bit surprized that the realised price was 46% above Charltons' suggested price. Was the realized price right? Who knows for sure. If the new owner were to put the same note on eBay again and realize the same price we would have a better idea.
1989 BDH T/C:
I beleive one of these notes sold on eBay for 1000.00 US last fall. The owner had a high reserve on the note and and have to list a number of times before it eventually sold. He promoted the notes' value by saying it should be at least that of a 1971 EET L/B. Finally, multiple bidders, drove the price past the owners reserve. Was the realized price right? Another example showed up on eBay not long after and realized somewhere around 500.00US.
Gary
-
I think we'd all like to hear a well thought out, practical solution to the pricing panel problem. I don't think that what we currently have now is perfect, but I also haven't heard any constructive ideas for improvement.
Rick's trends seem to work for coins, in conjunction with Charlton. Trends for Paper Money seems to be slowly catching on.
As for using eBay as your sole source of information, I think that's a mistake. Basing standardized pricing on a sample of one note, from an unrealiable "medium" as eBay, seems extremely error prone. I think the panel tries to balance "blips" with a more sober process, but I don't know the details.
Of the thousands of notes and pricing, there will always be disagreement on a few and part of the reason for the "Charlton Update" section here on the CPMF is to give people a process whereby they can address those. I'm not sure we need to through the baby out with the bath water though.
-
eBay does have its own ineffiencies and unqiue pricing events, for better and for worse, like a lot of markets.
I don't believe anyone is advocating eBay be the sole source for information. Just because one agrues it is important and deserves serious recongition it should not be inferred that it is being recommended as the sole voice, that would be ridiculous.
What is truly unqiue and important about eBay is that it is the single largest available liquid market (24x7x365 at that) for Canadian Paper Money in the world and only getting bigger.
Tons of collectors of CDN Paper Money (particularly those in remote or International regions) rely on eBay as their buy channel and as their reality check.
eBay matters a whole lot; and more and more every day. Sooner or later this needs to be properly accounted for and disclosures given on how this is being done.
One way or another this is going to be addressed by the market as the market almost always gets what it wants, one way or another.
Troy.
-
Charlton does not have a legislated monopoly on the pricing of Canadian notes. They're just publishing company trying to make money by selling books to niche markets.
If enough people are dissatisfied with the Charlton pricing panel, there's nothing stopping anyone from starting up their own business and publishing a catalogue that they feels represents more realistic prices. The new catalogue would compete directly with the Charlton, and if there is enough collector interest and respect in it, will outsell the Charlton and become the new "bible" for Canadian collectors.
If somebody doesn't like the Charlton, then for heaven's sake, DON'T buy it and quit whining!
-
lol,
Now that's food for thought ;D
That is what I was eluding to when I said one way or another this is going to be addressed as the market almost always gets what it wants.
Troy
-
If somebody doesn't like the Charlton, then for heaven's sake, DON'T buy it and quit whining!
Damn! How simple! Just ignore the problem.Love it or leave it!
Rather easy solution but probably the least acceptable,certainly the cop out method, how dear ole dad would put it. ;)
Charlton,to maintain its business,a leadership position in the audience looking for guidance to current market pricing of Canadian banknotes,must adapt to ever changing attitudes,and trends in the market place.To do otherwise,is a disservice to the paper collecting community,and ulimately to themselves.
Falling from a position of top dog to one of potential bankruptcy because of a love it or leave it attitude is one I would never put forward-not to them.
Can't see them appreciating such a hazardous suggestion.
To advocate a love it or leave it mentality surely will be the death of any business not willing to change with the market place.I am sure I need not list hundreds of companies that have failed for just this very reason.
Seems to me a more reflective pricing panel of current trends would include a cross section of ebay sellers, collectors and dealers.
There are many variables to why a particular note sells so much higher than current book list prices.To single out anomalies on ebay is plain unfair,I've seen dealers sell 50% above book on a note,turn around and say they will buy back at below book price.I've tested this theory out.
In order for ANY business to survive they must adapt to the ever changing world of economics.One that has become a force to be reckoned with is the online sale of goods,specifically paper money.It must be dealt with.How is the question.
I have put forth a good starting solution.A X section of the community on a revamped Pricing Panel.
Many here have ignored the fact that past members of this panel have quit out of fustration.They were tired of being asked to contribute,then have their reco's dismissed as irrelevant.
Several I spoke with are at their wits end.All stated the situation needs resolving.
I personally know past members of this panel who refused to participate any longer.
Before I'm attacked,I LOVE THE GUIDE,for all its flaws.I just would like to see it improved.
Just as I love my country,and would NEVER betray it,I will still involve myself in trying to make it a better place,although imo it is the BEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD!
respectfully runningonempty
-
I don't think I said "ignore it". I think I said, suggest a better way, or express your individual note concerns to the someone on the pricing panel.
What I don't believe is helpful, is complaining about a few notes and implying the whole book is bad because the "system" fails sometimes.
How SHOULD it be done? That's not ignoring it, that's asking for constructive suggestions. If it was simple to improve, I'm fairly sure changes would be made quickly. Maybe the solution is painfully obvious to you, but it sure eludes me.
Try finding out how the system works and then suggest improvements, or if you know of something similar, point the panel to how that works and I'm sure they'll quickly adopt it.
I know that the one year I tried to help out on the panel it was extremely overwhilming and I had to drop out. I KNOW it's not easy so don't think it is. Just point them in the right direction.
-
That bait I will take, all of it.
I'll be the first to volunteer the answer to the question on how it should be done and I am willing to provide a compass and map on what direction to follow. I am offering to do this because it was just requested and I am completely undeterred by the challenge.
What I need is full disclosure of the current process before beginning the journey.
Just yesterday I was doing research on how we should be handling the registers and I contacted the founders of this model http://www.donckelly.com/4th_ed_promo.html which I believe is more advanced than what we are doing here in Canada.
Challenge accepted.
Troy.
-
Don't think it was a "challenge" either. Just thought we could have some constructive discussions on how to make it better instead of just complaining.
Seems to me a database to do this would require tracking every single note of every issuer/denomination/series/type/signature combination/prefix/variation with the ability to average the known sales value, with each sale adjusted for inflation tied to the date of sale, news of changes in official "printed" and "released" numbers, new highs and lows, and discovery of hordes, while all staying statistically significant in sample size. Then, of course, there's the whole mathematics around trending and forecasting which is a science they didn't teach when I was in college.
Add to the project the cost of the computers, data storage and backup, cost of programming, initial data acquisition, data entry, on-going data acquisition costs (hopefully real-time feeds from eBay, and all auctions, but I’m not sure how you’d get dealers across Canada to submit their daily sales numbers).
It would definitely be better than the current method of printing out a survey of about 75 pages, and getting a panel of 10 or so of the most knowledgeable people in the business to fill in their “take” and then working out a consensus. At least that’s how I think it’s done. I found out how little I really knew about the hobby when I got my survey, and I only got a very small sub-section that I though I knew something about.
Subscriptions could be sold for “real-time” data on-line, and quarterly updates via discs (likely DVDs as I doubt a CD could hold that much data) and annual updates via discs, PDF or (yuck) printed book. In fact, you could argue that it’s not hugely different than one of my businesses (www.phochron.com) and I certainly have the digital publishing and internet software skills down pat.
I like the “facts” based database solution, but it certainly is beyond my computer skills and my ability to finance. I’d love to work with someone like Troy and Charlton to develop such a thing (and hey, then we could take on US and World Currencies too).
-
It does not therefore follow that for the Charlton guide pricing panel to allocate proper respect and consideration to the eBay market an undertaking such as the one you described is required. What you described would of course be an extremely useful and marketable informational tool with commercial potential but it is not what is required to get to 1st base.
What they need is someone on the inside with strong credentials and experience who can give recommendations on the reality of the online market and have sufficient evidence, passion and ability to influence outcome. How he or she gathers the evidence could be in various formats, a database (similar to the one you outlined) being the magical ideal, vast current direct experience being the more practical initial contribution. For example if the panel recommends a price of $9000 on an UNC 1935 $1000 this new person might be able to provide several recent examples of the note selling at $12,000 CDN. Statistically significant on this issue? Of course it is and extremely significant at that. Perhaps if the person offered to buy all available $1000 1935's in UNC "they" (the same people that have "WANTED" beside this note in their print ads) have laying around from panel members at $10,000-$11,000 CDN a piece it might add some credibility to the opinion. Or the names of the clients still waiting for theirs at $12,000 CDN. Perhaps this person might also be able to provide insight on other issues like the private sale prices of the 1935 $500 in VF/EF at prices far above what is reported in the new guide, significant? Well yeah, it is the only one available in that grade.
A reality check is needed on many, many key issues. The notes listed above are a small sample.
The 1st step is to bring someone else inside, from that changes/improvements would be recommended and undertaken. It may be discovered that 1/2 the (perception) problems may go away with increased transparency, I am not sure yet.
I will tell you I know for certain there is an emerging credibility problem with Charlton pricing when I get emails like this in the morning from buyers of the "new" price guide, and this collector is very experienced in high end material:
From: eBay Member: xxxxxxxxxx [mailto:member@ebay.ca]
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 5:59 AM
To: troy@xxxxxxxxx
Subject: Question for item #xxxxxx - xxxxxxxxx
Hi Troy,
Greetings, have not spoke to you for awhile (since the beautiful shinplaster I purchased), but follow your auctions, glad to see you are doing very well with your banknote business.
Would like your opinion if you dont mind on the following:
A friend of mine is interesting in purchasing a $1000 1937 note, represented as UNC. He asked me what I thought a fair price was (I had no idea) as I dont recall any recent comparable sales.
Would you mind giving me your opinion on the market value of this note.
Thanks, Steve
I am game for a project that would help the industry grow greatly (including an expansion of the pricing panel) and I am willing to review ideas and ventures to contribute where I can.
I am currently studying (and now going inside) other international markets/models such as the US, UK and Australian to attempt to have a more global view/vision of where we need to go.
I am hopeful there are others doing the same because pretending there isn't an emerging problem as raised by the original poster is only going to make this worse.
We should rally around the Charlton guide to see if it is willing to evolve with the market and improve its understanding of the market it serves.
Troy
-
This thread starts with the sentence..."take note of" etc.
I'm not sure if everyone knows who is being talked about but the purchase of an 18th edition should make it more clear (since the Pricing Panel names are openly published in the first page of Charlton catalogue).
Some on this thread share their diatribe for Charlton "Pricing Panel" and some provide support.
Oh what to do what to do.....?!
Sudzee and Tom and Paul...you make "cents" to me.
;)eastguy
-
Pricing panel is always overpriced on Ebay. I am not a Charlton defender as many here know, but I must admit it puts relative good prices for PAST issue like 1935, 1937, 1954 etc...The charlton's problem is for NEW issues...I would not pay 2200$ for a 2$ English Unc 1935 when I can find it for 1400$. I know dealers that sell this bill for that price...YES IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND RARE BILLS AT CHARLTON PRICE WITHOUT BUYING BY EBAY. you want to see... looks the link below, there's a lot of dealers like that in Canada and many are not on Internet...
http://cpnum.qc.ca/PDF%20Files/C&P_Catalogue_2005_47-64.pdf
-
I understand that not everyone will grasp the concept of why it is important to allocate proper consideration to the largest liquid market of collectible Canadian Currency in the world. It doesn't mean it becomes the sole driver of valuations, it means it becomes important and should be treated as such. It has, is and will continue to change the face of our industry/hobby; more so with every day that passes. The Internet, eBay in particular are now absolutely synonymous with the term "Mass Market". Tell me an industry where the "Mass Market" isn't important, if one exists, it isn't this one.
I also could not disagree with anyone more than I disagree with you Bitburger on the topic of the problem of unreliable pricing not being applicable to "past issues" - in fact the exact opposite is true, when I know for absolute certainty with the evidence to back it up that it is. That is not to say I think any less of you, I think you are heck of a forum member and I generally agree with what you have to say.
The dealer you referenced does use eBay as a viable sales channel from time to time and I know them extremely well on an ambitious transactional level. No (not many) other B&M dealer in Canada ("like that") has a similar inventory. The dealer you referenced has them all beat by miles and miles. To further stress this point what you see is not the whole iceberg of inventory either - not even close.
The note you referenced I would probably have signed off on $1500 in UNC (Charlton Price), no one would have had any grief from me on that issue. Move up the chain to the key notes in the same series $25, $50 , $100 , $500 and $1000's and that is a different story. I know what the market will pay on ALL AVAILABLE French $25's in AU or UNC, same with the $50-$1000 in both language varieties.
My beef is with rare, key issues in strong demand and vanishing supply; I believe the pricing panel is losing touch with what this stuff is worth and will actually have to check now with those that do know if they want to know how much the market will pay. There are some very experienced people on the panel who have made gigantic contributions to the industry (in fact they built it). They also have knowledge and a historical perspective which is unmatched that will continue to serve as an essential mission critical ingredient to the market. However to improve the credibility of the Charlton guide in a rapidly evolving market a modernization of the approach is in order and I have faith this will happen before long.
The online market, with eBay at the head of it, is due it's respect and it will have it from the market one way or another. It has great relevance to valuations. When one of the largest dealers in Canada sells me a note for $1300 they haven't handled in a few years and they think is scarce and I pay them everything they wanted for it and I know it is scarce alright with 6 (now 7) examples known to exist (not reflected in the guide) and I present this note with very accurate information & disclosure to the market where hundreds of people have considered the value over 10 days and decide it's worth $5000 CDN in a no reserve contest. The dealer who sold it (you know the ones that tell you they have been in it for 25+ years and told me that when they wanted a "strong price" of $1300; but what grade is it I ask "$1300 is the grade" I am told with strength in the voice...that is over book price I might add), what do you think they think it's worth now? Answer: $5000. How can the market be sure of that #? Well I will take the other 6 at $4000 a piece (assumes identical or better grade), One I will keep for myself and the other 5 sold at $5000 each - case closed. Of the other 6 examples known none are available (to the best of my knowledge) and that's unfortunate because the 2nd place bidder is still waiting on his at the same price.
Does that make the dealer who sold it an idiot? NO, not in the least, that makes them a victim of market inefficiency and at a loss of understanding because of poor sharing of information in a rapidly changing market (fueled by the power of the Internet and it's incredible market reach and ability to attract new collectors to the industry resulting in sharp increases in DEMAND and reduced SUPPLY) and overall market inefficiency.
What about B&M dealers selling rare Bank of Toronto notes with less than a dozen examples known of each for a few hundred bucks until they saw the power of the Internet through the eyes of its leading seller, the same notes are now 4 figures or close to it. Then again less than a year ago I saw one person who believed he knew a whole lot about eBay (he had it all figured out he did) and chartered notes sell an early Bank of Toronto note (where 1/2 dozen or less copies existed) for 1/6 or 1/7 of what he now understands it is worth. Challenging the market and everything in it is a natural part of its evolution.
This is the reality of the behavior of a market economy and how the Internet is changing the status quo. I would like to see one market in harmony for valuation purposes as it will serve the industry well.
As we move towards this evolved model some resistence is anticipated and it is a healthy reaction in a well-oiled market economy.
Troy
p.s. runningonempty, regarding your post 2 below this one, as a service to you I will fill that order for an original English UNC $2 1935 at $1500 CDN as one comes into inventory. I will PM you before long when I have one or more available. I don't feel strongly enough about this note being undervalued to put it ahead of your desire to have this note at $1500.
-
I would not pay 2200$ for a 2$ English Unc 1935 when I can find it for 1400$. I know dealers that sell this bill for that price...YES IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND RARE BILLS AT CHARLTON PRICE WITHOUT BUYING BY EBAY. you want to see... looks the link below, there's a lot of dealers like that in Canada and many are not on Internet...
http://cpnum.qc.ca/PDF%20Files/C&P_Catalogue_2005_47-64.pdf
Did you physically see the note advertised and as importantly, did you buy it?
I would also disagree that there are "a lot" of dealers selling accurately graded rarer notes at book. *shrug*
-
Pricing panel is always overpriced on Ebay. I am not a Charlton defender as many here know, but I must admit it puts relative good prices for PAST issue like 1935, 1937, 1954 etc.
I will respectfully disagree.
Who is to say what are "good prices?"
I would suggest it is the market place.And part of that market place,a ever expanding part of that market place is ebay.
I would not pay 2200$ for a 2$ English Unc 1935 when I can find it for 1400$. I know dealers that sell this bill for that price...YES IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND RARE BILLS AT CHARLTON PRICE WITHOUT BUYING BY EBAY. you want to see... looks the link below, there's a lot of dealers like that in Canada and many are not on Internet...
All is not what it seems ALL the time regarding catalogues.
I did witness the $1935 english $2 sell for a buy it now price of $2200.I personally could not pull the trigger,I can't afford it :-[,but someone did.
The note looked great as I recall.So where do you draw the line?Obviously this buyer says the note is worth $2200.
Charlton says it's only $1500.
Anyone have a Original Uncirculated 1935 $2.00 note they are willing to sell at $1500? PM me immediately.It is sold!
Point is,Charlton needs a cross section of the largest and current sellers in the market place,along with the "experts" in paper money to contribute on the Pricing Panel.
I submit their are a few that have sold little,compared to leaders in the industry, the last few years still giving their input on prices?
respectfully,runningonempty
-
I also trend paper money, from 1935 to 1967. Nothing before, nothing after, it is just too large.
Catalogue prices are estimates of the retail, but just an estimate. Doesn't mean you can find one for that price, also doesn't mean one should listen to the bull and pay too much either.
The book is out of date when published, but accurate at the time of gathering the information. He tends to get increases/decreases in per centages, which may not be the way to go.
It is not possible to track every note sold, and it is also not possible to ensure that the results given are true and accurate. Notes sold privately will usually never been known. only those sold in a public auction and/or ebay have firm figures, the rest of the information comes from advertised sales. Dealers tend to keep much information as private as they should to protect the privacy of their client.
The old stuff about if note A trends for $400, I will take them all simply doesn't fit anything.
How many readers here are willing to pay $6 each for 1967 $1 no serial number notes in Unc.?
I did about 6-8 years ago to fill an order, and bought 4,500 of them. Catalogue prices were under $2.
Supply and demand set the prices, trends and catalogues only give an approximate idea.
Rick
-
Based on the grounds of a lack of evidence & transparency I dispute the claim that 'at the time of gathering the information it is accurate'. I am not as sure as you are to say the least and it is these kind of generic comments that have a bulls eye on them right now, begging to be tested. To believe this you will need to believe that the panel has an accurate accounting of the affect of increased demand from the Internet. In order for this belief to translate into an opinion with credibility it needs to come with an explananation and valid arguments as to why you think it is accurate at the time of gathering the info and why you think this process has few enough faults to qualify as being "accurate" to those of us who are at the leading edge of challenging the status quo, that may fly with some inexperienced followers who are easily suppresssed, but not now, not anymore and not here. This industry is growing up and getting smarter, call it an evolution not a revolution.
Accurate according to what market reality? What date was it exactly that the 18th edition prices were "accurate", do you mean on the 1935 $1000, $500, $100, $50, $25 french and english? What about the 1937 $1000 Bank of Canada note in UNC, what about the $1000 Devil? and what about many critical issues in the guide?
This is the crux of the issue being discussed and I am not about to let anything like this go by unchallenged. This process is healthy and should be welcome by all, expecially those on the panel.
If there is not enough support/stomach for a stress test now we can do this some other time, and some other place, but it is inevitable.
Troy.
-
I couldn't help it. For the longest time, we collectors complain about the high prices of notes the dealers charge, overnight, we collectors are now complaining the dealers are causing the charlton to lower the prices ? Isn't it good news for the collectors ? Isn't it beautiful that we could stock up good notes before prices catch up ?
This is a collectors' website, is it not, Paul ?
-
The old stuff about if note A trends for $400, I will take them all simply doesn't fit anything.
How many readers here are willing to pay $6 each for 1967 $1 no serial number notes in Unc.?
I did about 6-8 years ago to fill an order, and bought 4,500 of them. Catalogue prices were under $2.
First,I think we need to remember we are talking about scarce notes.I hardly think 1967 1's no s/n qualify as such.
Some may say a 1935 English $2 in ORIGINAL UNTAMPERED UNCIRCULATED CONDITION is not a scarce note.That is a matter of opinion.I say it is indeed scarce at $1500.Anyone that wishes to prove me wrong by selling me one,in the above stated condition,can count it sold,after the verification of such a state.
Let's take this a step further with scarce notes.
Anyone who wishes to sell the following notes at current book has a definite sale.
1).Osbourne/Towers $2 Original Unc-$950.3 please!!
2).English $25 Original Unc$11,000
3).Osborne/Towers $1000 Original Unc $8500-two please!!!
4).1935 $1000 English Original Unc $9000
5).Gordon/Towers JA Original Unc $2000.2 please.
This is a partial list of notes desired by myself and two friends.
I am not trying to turn this into a debate about which notes are under-valued,rather that scarce notes in Original Unc are almost impossible at Catalogue.
Ending this part of my response,I suggest it truly is false to say "The old stuff about if note A trends for $400, I will take them all simply doesn't fit anything." If you can't buy them at...nugh said.
I will up-date you regarding the # of responses I receive to the above offers.
Charlton Press need to revamp the Pricing Panel imo,reflecting a more accurate picture of the market place.
Having spoke with past,fustrated members of the pricing panel,their angst did not come from pricing suggestions being to high. On the contrary,these members of the community are upstanding and outstanding contributors to the daily activity of paper money transactions,whose contributions were discarded as being out of line-read too high of pricing.
This debate is certainly garnering ideas,suggestions that may be taken to heart by the panel.Lets hope it is taken in the spirit it is given.
respectfully runningonempty
-
I couldn't help it. For the longest time, we collectors complain about the high prices of notes the dealers charge, overnight, we collectors are now complaining the dealers are causing the charlton to lower the prices ? Isn't it good news for the collectors ? Isn't it beautiful that we could stock up good notes before prices catch up ?
This is a collectors' website, is it not, Paul ?
I think if you knew who I've spoken to you would retract that statement.It is the dealers on the pricing panel,some of the largest by volume,if reputation is a guide,that are trying to raise prices in the Catalogue.At least PAST pricing panel members.I will not speak to current members thoughts as I have had no recent conversations with any of them.
Now given that is a fact,it would be collectors, p/t or small dealers trying to keep the price down.
Where did anyone say dealers are trying to keep the price down?
Perhaps Paul should make this a dealers only website? ;) :) ;D
-
Give a guy an inch and he takes a mile but I can't let you get away with this one ;D
2).English $25 Original Unc $11,000
- nope, please add approx 15% on the English and at least 20% on the french to be competive in the offline and online market.
3).Osborne/Towers $1000 Original Unc $8500-two please!!!
- nope, to be competitive in a list of people waiting for this note in the online and offline market you will need add, on a good day 25%, on a bad bad for you 35%.
4).1935 $1000 English Original Unc $9000
- sorry, the market (offline and online) is paying 27.5%-30% more than that on this note.
But you know this already, that's why you want em, you little devil you!
The other 2 I would have to defer to someone else who have greater sales experience in the issues and on the current market landscape for the notes but I am of the opinion that the $2 Osborne appears to under-valued at $950, I would need to check with the market before sounding as sure I normally do before voicing an opinion with a high degree of confidence.
A pricing panel member who might see the above may think, you have to be kidding me about the prices above, no I am not. Welcome to the power and influence of the Internet which not only by definition has the online (mass) market but it has greatly impacted values in the offline market. My concern is who there understands the relationship between the two markets and what is going on in each and based on what credentials and set of current experiences? Now push that aside, assuming such a person exists, what weight are they being given to influence pricing decisions; is it 1/10 of the say, 1/5th, 1/2? What weight should the online market be allocated versus the offline market, how do we adjust for the fact that month over month and year over year the Internet is having an even greater affect? How do we get good data if we are going to attempt to modernize and account for this?
These questions are some of the key ones at the heart of the concern raised in this thread. If the panel is unable to raise or answer these questions internally then they need to bring someone inside who can, at least on an advisory level.
Troy
-
Troy,
I know this is off subject a bit but I would appreciate an explanation of the term " original uncirculated ".
Gary
-
I know this is off subject a bit but I would appreciate an explanation of the term " original uncirculated ".
Gary
As I understand it, this refers to a note that was, and remains, UNC when it was issued - i.e. it has not been pressed, washed, trimmed, etc. It is a note that is UNC as printed...not an EF note that has been doctored by an unscrupulous person so it will look uncirculated.
-
I think one thing need to be brought to everyone’s attention before this post gets too far out of hand. Many sales on the internet, mostly ebay are bought by hard core aggressive collectors, which I would include myself in that category. Many of them including myself will almost pay an unreal amount for a note to fill a void in my collection. With bidding aggressively for a certain note, it almost artificially inflates the value for that particular note.
Here is a hypothetical scenario. Say I paid $1000 for that note that books for $750, because I needed it, then I happened to upgrade that note for one from a show, dealer or online. Then I was to put that original note back up on ebay, that note may then sell for book value. This might happen because I then am taken out of the line of bidders for that note.
OR
I had bought the above mentioned note and another one shows up on ebay. I am again out of the line of bidders.
In any type of collecting, be it paper money or bottle caps, there are true collectors and then there are speculators or investors. The speculators or investors are in it for the short term investment. Many of them have not quite grasped the grading thing or the true rarity of certain notes. They rely on what the seller says in the description or the write up in the ad. As we all know that many so called uncirculated notes on ebay are now termed “Ebay Unc”. Probably an AU or sometimes at best EF. Also, I have found that many of the rare notes that I have seen on ebay or at shows have been processed. Either by washing, bleaching and or trimming notes to make them appear better than they were originally. If the uneducated buyer gets one or more of these notes, they don’t know the true real collector world grade until it is time to sell the note(s). A true hard core collector most likely receive the “Ebay Unc” note grade for him/her self and naturally send it back, where the speculator or investor probably would not. If the market becomes full of notes that were originally over graded or processed, then the sellers will whine, because the speculators or the investors are trying to sell their notes on the real market and will not get any return on their “investment”. Where the educated collector will generally come ahead a bit and show a little profit to help to build or upgrade his/her collection.
If the prices of notes rise to dramatically, the collector will eventually give up, and the investor will keep on going. This has happened before in the past in other collectables, where investors have dove in, buying up all of the high grade items, hence raising the prices up high. The true collector sees the high prices in the guides and understands that it is now impossible to finish their collection because of the high prices and bail’s. Selling their collection and then other collectors do the same, flooding the market or crashing the market and then this takes a long time to recover. This leaves the investors or speculators who caused the prices to go through the roof holding a cold poker.
Paper money as a collectable is just nicely chugging along. Prices are increasing at a nice rate where generally the collector will make enough from selling their extras or ones that have been upgraded. We don’t need to have the values artificially inflated just because some think the prices are too low. Get it going too fast and then the true collectors will bail. It is too fragile to mess with too much.
I will never forget when I was first starting to collect, after making some real stupid decisions, a very knowledgeable collector friend stressed to me…… “You have to educate yourself, don’t believe everything you hear”.
Now being done with my venting, I want to hear reasons why some here are so adamant for huge price increases. Real reasons not that the market demands it, because that is a load of bull.
Reply in simple terms, not using large words to make it sound like you are so “educated”, in 3 or 4 sentences.
Tom
-
As Tom said, this market is chugging along just fine. I have no real complaints about the Charlton catalogue. Yes there are still some under priced notes in the new bible, I have an idea what they are, & l'll buy them at catalogue price if l find them. There are also some over priced notes in the catalogue, that l wouldn't buy unless l was getting the deal of the day. I know that, & you know that !
This catalogue is a guide line as to roughly how much each note is worth, the real price comes from the buyer when he reach's for his cash in his pocket.
All in all, if you don't like the prices in the catalogue, throw the thing out & make your own prices, or even better use some white out in your new catalogue, cover up the low prices & make your own. IT'S JUST A GUIDE LINE ! :)
The new book will be out in a year, hope your investments do better for you. l'm in it for the hobby, the fun, meeting people & darn it, Canadian paper money is the most beautiful money printed in the world & lastly these crazy conversations on The Canadian Paper Money forum. 5 good reasons to enjoy this hobby.
RS_dude
-
Hi Tom,
Now that I have shaken off the most amazing outdoor event I have ever seen, a Rolling Stones concert with about 90,000 people there, let me say that I think your last post is really good one and represents precisely the right kind of resistence and challenge which is healthy for the market. I also personally appreciate you investing the time to craft the reply that you did. There are a lot of people, many of whom are advanced collectors and dealers, watching this thread carefully.
The issue is raised is not whether the price guide is a guideline (as RS_Dude said), that is understood by everyone, so let's get that off the table. The issue is also not grading, which is imperfect in every market, so lets get that off the table. This issue is not as simple as whether or not time is needed to compile info, print texts and distribute them, if this is part of the problem then that needs to be corrected with forward thinking. Everyone understands this too, so let's get that off the table.
The issue raised (as evidenced by the title of this entire thread) by someone other than me is and was the credibility of the pricing panel and how accurate the prices are as presented to us, by them, in an ever changing market. Leadership will become an even more difficult challenge as the market continues to grow internationally, the market has historically considered those on the panel very credible leaders. The market now has an increasing level of questions and concerns it is asserting. A pure and important issue to many at the heart of the hobby and industry that will no longer tolerate being swept aside, canned responses that used to work are not going to cut it anymore.
I think if I had to take this one on in the format you suggested Tom, 3 or 4 sentences, as simple talk as possible on a topic that has some complexity, it might go something like this (bear with me, its early, and I have had about 5 hours sleep):
1) Times have changed, the Internet (what I call the Mass Market) has increased demand more than any other time in the history of our hobby/industry, supply is at an all time low, yet prices reflected in the guide do not reflect an increasing year over year growth rate which correlates with the increase in demand (10% might the # used unjustiably and incorrectly every year to appreciate a rare key issue when demand for it has grown by triple to quadruple digits/%'s).
2) If all (or nearly all) available notes from a very rare, very key issue are presold at prices 20-40% above 18th edition price to advanced collectors (note these people are not idiots and have been collecting their entire life, many are "Connoisseurs") who also consider their collectables investments (like most collectors who are closet investors do too), then this is what the note is worth and should be priced as such in the guide.
3) The market is no longer "chugging along" as the train it once was, it is flying now because of the Internet and its ability to bring in a huge # of new collectors and investors; the market needs the right fuel and pilots to keep it in the air; if it doesn't receive this the entire market and those leading it are going to lose credibility as confusion worsens about which market is right, the B&M or Internet, and the failure to bring solutions and harmony to this will indeed create new publishing business opportunities and new market leadership opportunities as those who potentially drop the ball, despite all the signs being there, are pushed aside.
4) When similar markets like the USA and Australian (and other former and existing British Commwealth countries) have experienced a similar increase in demand the price guides and experts who compile the pricing have shown no unnecessary hesitation when providing prices in their guides which actually reflect what the market will pay, 30+% yearly increases on very rare key notes in very strong demand & vanishing supply has not resulted in panic, it has instead created a healthier dynamic market (in a market economy panic selling happens when prices are too far ahead of demand resulting in falling not increasing pricing; with increased prices you will get some people selling to realize gains and market attrition, sure, and so what says economics 101).
I hope this provides a framework for further constructive discussion and I apologize for not keeping this in a simple, easy to follow, step by step analysis/argument in posts prior. And if I am one of the guilty ones you were referring to I will also avoid appearing to be educated or articulate to the best of my ability as I don't want to lose focus of the issue at hand. I am willing to work with determination within the framework you requested, as long as it takes, so long as you believe the approach you suggested is in the best interest of the market and of this forum.
I'd like to see the panel address the valid concerns raised; from this good things will come.
Troy
p.s.
Gary: I agree with what was provided already as the definition of an Original UNC by Venga adding to it, for the most part, the Charlton explanation of UNC. I also do not have anything to add to the already large body of information and education the grandmasters who built this industry haven't already said on this topic.
-
Seems more and more of the finest ebay sellers are stating the obvious.The guide,in their opinion,is under-valued.
Here is a description from an active add on ebay at present:
Educated collectors realize that catalogue value for the 1937 Specimen notes does not reflect the true market value of these notes. So few of these notes ever make it onto the resale market that catalogue value is still based on the original prices realized at the 1999 Bank of Canada auction. These notes are selling on the secondary market for between 2 to 2½ times catalogue price. There are only 48 of the 1937 issue $2 specimen notes known to exist in private collections and the majority are part of complete sets that may never be broken up. This is a truly unique opportunity to own a single example of this rare note at a very reasonable Buy It Now price.
A complete set is currently being offered on eBay with a starting bid of US $12,998.00 (plus applicable tax).
Given the current Charlton states this set is $6750,someone/something is wrong,extremely wrong!
In regard to Tom's statements,a guide,or road map must get you to where you are going.Point you in the right direction,manouver you to a general location of where you want or need to be.
With the Charlton 18th giving the above price for this set,one advertised at $15k plusthe recent Torex sale of over 10k with fees,a table at Torex(this told me by a freind) showing a set for 12k,how did the pricing panel ever set a value on this SP set 100%+ what the market dictates?
Just another example to demonstrate that we must move forward.The market is advancing,expanding,and maturing rapidly.
-
how did the pricing panel ever set a value on this SP set 100%+ what the market dictates?
Correction:
Should state:how did the pricing panel set a value on this SP set 100%- or below what the market dictates.
-
Another factor that I don't think has been captured in this discussion is that dealers often have want lists from their clients. If a valued note is sold at auction and purchased by a dealer for say $3000, the dealer may then sell the note to his client for $3600 - $4000. The auction sale result was on the public record, but the subsequent private sale was not.
These days when some high profile auctions (Torex, Lyn Knight etc) are on-line, the collector himself generally bids directly rather than working through a dealer. This phenomenon is also evident on e-bay as some very knowledgable collectors buy there and it is not uncommon for regular auctions with on-line bidding and e-bay auctions where collectors buy directly for prices to be 20% and more above catalogue.
A factor in this price aberration may be that what previously was an unreported "flip" of a note from dealer to collector following an auction, is now on the public record as the collector buys more and more directly at on-line auctions.
-
Agreed, this must also be contemplated.
Troy.
-
Great points eyevet.
Of particular note and interest may be the Lyn Knight auction that just took place in Canadian Paper Money.
I suspect these were retail buyers.Look at realized prices compared to the Catalogue.
Low # 0000005 1954 $1 in "Gem Unc"-sold @ $325
Charlton price-$150.00
Sale price 100% above Catalogue!
Low #0000005 1954 $2 in "Gem Unc"-sold @ $325
Charlton price-$150.00
Sale price 100% above Catalogue!
For the sake of brevity,I only listed these examples.
Something interesting.In examining my very own feelings/thoughts,I felt these and a few other notes offered would be a great addition to my collection.But I hesitated as the bidding went well above book?Why? I know the Catalogue is out of date.Most agree with that conclusion.I realized my hesitation came from the book prices listed in Charlton.
Would I have stopped myself from attaining these notes had the 18th edition listed these notes at $300? Probably not.I surely would have gone to $375 at least.
In conclusion we can wonder how many in the collecting community hesitate and defer from buying notes that go so much higher than Catalogue! And to the detriment of all concerned,many delay purchases and aquasitions because of the out-dated prices we see in our "road map"?
The market is the market.
respectfully,runningonempty
-
I promised one of the moderators I would stay out of this, however.
Instead of beating around the bush, who are the members of the priceing panel you don't like, and who are those that you do like?
Part two, please name those you think should be on the panel for Mr. Cross's book.
Rick
-
Instead of beating around the bush, who are the members of the priceing panel you don't like, and who are those that you do like?
Part two, please name those you think should be on the panel for Mr. Cross's book.
I'm going to veto this one right now. It will no-doubt lead to a situation where inappropriate comments will be made, and then we're going to be required to enforce the forum rules, etc. Let's not, OK? ;)
-
And I second this, end this totally stupid discussion now.
Rick
-
huh? I didn't realize we could demand a thread be shut down just because someone throws a tantrum and decided they didnt like it anymore and thought it was "totally stupid".
Troy
-
I promised one of the moderators I would stay out of this, however.
Instead of beating around the bush, who are the members of the priceing panel you don't like, and who are those that you do like?
Part two, please name those you think should be on the panel for Mr. Cross's book.
I started this thread with asking all to take a look at the Pricing Panel.No where have I ever stated I did not like any of them,matter of fact,I have great respect for all of them,and what they are trying to accomplish.
That does not mean they have accomplished a stated goal,or that there isn't room for improvement.
Part two-Let the Panel decide,but they must take into account the impact of on-line transactions ,specifically the huge trend setting prices that we see on ebay and other on-line auctions.
If you insist on a name,I nominate MonetaryMan to give impact statements to the Panel on trends in scarce Canadian notes.Look at his on-line auctions.
His knowledge of the market is expanding on a constant basis,according to what I see.
Now before someone gets silly,I have never bought,sold,or met the MonetaryMan.
:)
-
And I second this, end this totally stupid discussion now.
What? Looking at the views to this thread,over 1200 of them,I'd say that is the minority opinion.
Why is this discussion stupid?Are you part of the pricing panel,currently,or in the past?
Would it be correct to assume you'd rather NOT see any evolving changes made to the Charlton Guide?Or are you just against seeing current pricing regarding scarce notes increased,as the market has dictated?
This has been a great debate,hope we can continue to identify the problem(s),clearly from past posts in this thread their are some,and help come to some constructive solutions.
respectfully,runningonempty
-
Tom
If you're going to make sense, apply logic and critical thinking to this discussion , frankly you can't be part of it. :)
-
I have had more than my say in this thread and I am going to step away as it is clear that the panel does not have sufficient representation here to answer questions and address concerns. The discussion has been excellent and an essential cross check on the status quo.
I was invited to this thread in a post and some emails I received after I said I wanted to sit this one out!
I understand this issue is important to many who have been writing me and I can assure it remains important to me as well. I am very passionate about making sure the information being fed to the market I serve is accurate and I can be very difficult to convince.
Let me come back to you in the near future with a follow up.
Always a pleasure to discuss market related issues, even when very controversial.
Troy
-
Well, less full of self, I will wade in on this again.
I concur with those more prudent than those that promote fast pace prices.
I remain less than convinced by the spewing
monologues brimming with hyperbole and bereft of substance put forward by those that want immediate market pricing.
The TSX has an old system that may be of use......
but it involves going with the "daily" market and is not a realistic system for Canadian Bank Notes. Not enough demand and nowhere near the required activity to support even basic service levels.
A "Catalogue" published online with ongoing updates is likely the future but for now puts the "collector" at significant and unacceptable risk.
Might as well cancell all paper publications...catalogues, newspapers, trash news etc
Just a "collectors" view.
;)eastguy
P.S. A two hour drive is all that we needed to get "Stoned" from here and had no reason to brag about where we were at (collectors are just that way).
-
For the record I am not advocating minute by minute pricing or a market which provides such. That was not the topic of this thread as evidenced by its subject; nor is it required to solve the issue raised. Efforts were made in this thread by me to greatly discourage this topic from being diverted in this direction after Paul's post. If this effort needs renewed energy I am happy to provide it because once again no one here, to the best of my understanding, has or is advocating or supports minute by minute pricing in any way shape or form.
Eastguy at the end of your post you felt it was necessary get personal despite past moderator warnings that this is not permitted.
If you have anything to say on a personal level you should probably contact that person directly.
Troy.
-
Before being critical of eastguy, this site has rules.
They are:
Rule #1: No commercial ads, no profanity, no advocacy of violence or law-breaking, no libel, slander, flaming, insults, harrassment or degrading other members. We will enforce this!
Such rules should be enforced.
When Bill Cross attempts to price a catalogue, he sends out a large document to several people, some of whom do not reply. As gathering information is a non-paying function, one cannot make anyone else do anything with it beyond toss it in the garbage. The pricing panel is thus limited to those that reply. The information is only as good as what is submitted.
Extremes in high prices and extremes in low prices are often blended to average down the values. Trends in no different in CCN, I have a small group of dealers that contribute information. Many of them contribute nothing.
Rick
-
Helpful piece of info Rick, that is the part about the panel, the subject of this thread. There is no confusion about what the forum rules are.
There are some of us who would like to hear more about the fine details of the pricing process and welcome further disclosure from you on it. As stated before I believe increased transparency would be very helpful in addressing some concerns raised.
This was especially helpful: "The information is only as good as what is submitted".
I have some information on the USA and Australian process (30 contributing pricing panel members who buy sell and collect daily, online and offline) that can be shared at the appropriate time.
Troy.
-
The hardest part is getting someone to contribute freely, at no compensation.
Dealers will make noise that prices are out of whack, too high or too low, but most of them contribute nothing.
I send out trends gathering information regularly, but to those that contribute nothing, it doesn't get sent again.
Public auctions are good for information, one needs to figure in the taxes and hammer fees without regard to who the buyer is. Ebay is one method of information, often with extremes of high/low over a short period of time, and unless the grade in known, much can be taken with a grain of salt.
Prices in trends attempt to reflect the market, with limited resources and often poor information. I need to round down prices when some dealers suddenly puch for higher prices as if it relects their stock or a recent purchase.
A comment from one person was that all the prices are fine makes me wonder if the person actually sells anything.
When a dealer is bidding above current trends or current book prices, it then stands to reason that that price is too low.
While paper is only a small part of the overall market, that market tends to be dominated by a handfull of large dealers, with many smaller dealers and eBay dealers taking up the slack.
If a 1937 $1 in Unc. regularly sells for $30, with highs of $40, lows of $20, then the trends would be $30. If the same note suddenly starts to sell for $35-$45, the trends would need to be increased.
If a dealer (who has a buy for these), starts to offer $50 each (and wants a limited number), trends would likely not reflect any changes unless the buy number is so high as to suck the market dry.
Some years ago, a large dealer in the west was buying Calgary Olympic sets for $500 each. The current market price was $275 per set. He made it very clear that when the order for 2000 sets was filled, he wanted no more. Trends did change for a brief period of time until the order was complete.
In the case of notes that are rare, the trends or book price merely reflect the information given. The price of a 1935 $25 note in VF or EF is how much? Perhaps the dealers and collectors who submitted prices never had one, never sold one, never seen one. Perhaps the one that contributed sold 4 of each and thus overwhelms the book price as the only major contributor. It is this sort of thing that makes it difficult to establish a base price for anything even slightly rare.
Rick
-
Rick,
Another informative post, thank you.
Given what you have said in your last 2 posts have you modified your earlier position that the prices are an accurate representation (at the time they are complied) of the overall online and offline market reality. Or are they simply the best we have to work with at present, which is not in dispute.
Furthermore do you have an appreciation and tolerance now as to why there are questions and concerns being raised by many, including some of the top collectors and dealers of Canadian paper money in the world who would like to see the process improve.
Troy
-
The prices published are an accurate representation of the prices submitted, and these prices are averaged or rounded.
One needs to know a lot more details of sales, and these details depend on the truthfullness of the contributors.
I really doubt Gatewest will reveal how many of what note sold for what price, nor could he really be expected to reveal information.
If one walks the floor at a coin show, we all know that the price written is not necessarily the price the item will be sold for. If a collector pays book price or double book price or half book price, it remains a private transaction.
The concerns expressed, so far, in this topic are mostly opinions of the writters. Few people understand the logic of attempting to compile prices on things that sell so few compared to regular commodities. It is easy to figure out the price of commonly traded notes, the rest depend on correct and proper information being compiled, with regular contributors and dated information.
The greatest contribution of the Charlton paper money books is the numbering system, then the number originally printed (which is amended each year), and finally prices. It has taken years to put the book together in order so that the public reading it can gain an appreciation of the complexity of the work.
It is too easy to slam the book, demand on line "free bee" information. This site and membership in the CPMS give updated information. The paper money market is far too small for it to afford daily, weekly, or monthly trends.
The next time I insert the paper trends into CCN, it will reflect information from the Charlton books, plus any other information of which I am aware.
Rick
-
Rick,
Regarding this from your post: "The prices published are an accurate representation of the prices submitted". Not in dispute and very glad and reassuring to hear, assuming this is true of course and I have no reason to believe it is not.
Who submits (understanding there is serious concern that the ever expanding and important online "mass market" is being under-represented), how many submit, how each person is weighted, how often they submit, and how the submissions are time adjusted for the need to compile, print and distribute the text are some of the outstanding areas then that require analysis.
Troy
-
Assuming this is a question. Who submits to the Charlton, I don't know. Only Bill would know that and it is doubtful he would divulge the information beyond the names mentioned in the book.
Who submits to trends is a private matter as well. I get information from dealers who deal in this material and from a private individual who tracks all sales on ebay (where the grade is known). I also track prices in auction where I can determine if the grade is as offered. I also hear from collectors with specific information.
Rick
-
This is now a fair exchange of ideas and concerns.
I thank RS for his support and apologize to Monetary if my comments were perceived as a personal affront.
My motive was simply to respond to a comment made about the Rolling Stones concert which was
held in this area. We don't often have the opportunity to brag as most big events are held in Upper Canada. If some Upper Canadians consider this a personal attack it is likely a symptom of Geographic jealousy........and I'm not a native of the east. I'm Canadian!
The most recent exchange on this thread appears to be more constructive, amiable and worthy of consideration. I encourage more as that's how we "collectors" learn more about our hobby.
;)eastguy
-
Some years ago, CCN had a trends panel of 6-8 major dealers (mostly coin stuff). It didn't work as some contributed, others did not.
The main difference with the paper and the book is that the paper comes out every two weeks, and mistakes can be quickly corrected. When I make one, or the young lady who puts the paper together makes one, it is pointed out rather loudly, and it does get corrected.
There is no attempt to be a comprehensive in trends as the book is. I only cover 1935 to 1967. I would like to expand it, but at the expense of other topics of interest. Some suggested shortening mint products, or dropping tokens or cameo coins, however, none of these are being comtemplated right now.
Rick
-
Depending on the qualifications and credibility of the others contributing and your desire to grow this project Rick I will partially fund, promote, support and contribute pricing to your publication, backed by empirical data. I would however expect it to become the international standard and you and your team did whatever was necessary to establish it as such.
Perhaps that could then feed info to the pricing panel of the Charlton Guide, failure of the panel to fully contemplate the data presented would then create increased reputation risk for the Charlton Guide.
The best model of this in the world for Paper Money (I am aware of) is the Green Sheet in the USA and it is a $44 annual subscripton (published monthly), I am a subscriber and it is quite comprehensive and I find it extremely useful. http://www.greysheet.com/cdn/green.asp
I really can't go any further with my last post until the information is brought forward as it relates to the issues I indicated were remaining and likely where problems exist.
Thanks
Troy.
-
I beleive Charlton is a bit ahead of you Troy. Read this paragraph taken from an online add for the new coin book. I now guess we can expect changes in papermoney 19.
The Circulating Legal Tender section; Page 1 to page 249: All the new and current information has been added, new issues from the 2004 Poppy quarter, the 2005 Saskatchewan and Alberta 25 cent coins to the one dollar 25th anniversary of Terry Fox’s Marathon of Hope. A newly found 50 cent, 1881 copper pattern, and the new 2004 Test Token set are listed and priced. Prices have undergone a complete revision on two fronts, first by giving more weight to land and virtual auction prices realized, and secondly, by removing from the pricing columns all prices that are not supported by the ICCS 2005 POPS report. It is difficult to price a coin when after nearly twenty years it has never turned up for grading.
Gary
-
A step in the right direction for coins.
I will leave it to the paper money market to decide if Charlton is ahead of me or not; after all I serve at the pleasure of the market.
The evidence I have suggests that the Charlton guide is lagging, not leading, and any steps to remedy this are extremely welcome and appreciated.
Troy.
-
Must confess to my first really detailed reading of the forum after just a quick look various other times.
These random thoughts on the "Pricing Panel" issue:
The Charlton catalogue is a "snapshop" of values collected some months BEFORE publication and used for twelve months more. Unavoidably, it cannot be current like the stock market. Necessarily a 'guide' only, not difinitive for values. I often use the comparison of the stock market where EVERY transaction is recorded each day and published but even then you have 10-20% ( or more) variations in value with many stocks in one month ! What would we say if stock market values were puiblished once a year ?
I noted the suggestion of a quarterly on-line revaluation but there is definitely the cost of that and I doubt it would be feasible - yet. The market is growing so that might work in the near future.
Unless we get into the US system of numerous grades of UNC then the Charlton has to use the most commonly understood definition and the values that go with it.
I sometimes wonder if we should not press the CPMS to establish three UNC grades. Simplistically: UNC 60 - 'commercial' unc, usualy handling, what you typically call UNC; UNC-63 a 'choice' note that has minimal handling, decent centering; the UNC-65, that "Gem" note that is utterly flawless in grade, centering and without counting creases or handling ( would eliminate 99.9% of 1935 and early 1954 issues). Then there would need to be a qualifier as to whether it is pressed or original - a serious and significant issue. Admittedly, the more complex the system the more scams and misrepresentation but we are getteing that anyway. As Charlton only uses one grade it means that better and lesser notes will sell for more or less and thus raise questions of the accuracy of Charlton. Unavoidable. The 1935 $2 English someone referred to as selling for $2,000 - was that a fluke ? Would it stand up to being graded by 2 or 3 knowledgeable graders ? One sale is not a market and that ius true of eBay, dealers lists or auctions.
EBay is a factor in the market but difficult to quantify. Most of us have had more disappointments on eBay that anywhere else so caution is needed here, BUT IT IS A FACTOR.
Given that the Charlton values are collected well before publication it raises the question of whether it should, to some degree, anticipate future prices and go that extra 10% or more that we all knoiw will be effectively the price in a few months. I raised this idea with the Editor once but it was not accepted. He may well be right. In all things, the market finds itself.
Lastly, for those who collect world notes, you know how outdated the Pick values are for better notes. Same problem. But if Charlton or Pick used anticipatory pricing all they do is instantly inflate prices and then they get out of date in 3 months anyway !
One could write a book the size of Charlton's on this issue. Just some thoughts.
Don
-
Welcome Godfather,
Thank you for stepping into a loaded thread and providing some greatly appreciated insight and experience.
May I ask how long ago you presented the idea of time adjusting the price submissions? Perhaps it is time to press the issue again to assist the market in providing prices that are more accurate by the time they reach the streets as the market is not as forgiving these days as it is growing exponentially. It doesnt serve the market well to have a guide with a 2006 date stamp on the cover reflecting prices of the fall of 2004 (with some exceptions). Does the panel recommend we add a % above the price shown in the guide to estimate market prices by the time the guide hits the streets, if so is 10% a good rule of thumb? If so why 10% and not some other number given that demand is at an all time high and supply at an all time low? (thanks to the Internet).
Other than the above, some of the outstanding concerns are:
Who submits, how many submit, how each person is weighted and how often they submit.
Glad to hear the online market and eBay are a factor, can you shed some light on what weighting is assigned to market prices coming from this market, as just mentioned who is/are the expert(s) representing the submissions coming from this market (the ever growing Mass Market)? One of the beautiful things about selling online is sales activity is transparent and the market can easily determine who is active and who is not and whether or not their level of activity is enough to warrant a leadership position in pricing the market for an increasingly educated collector and dealer base. I believe it is inevitable that online prices will be the single largest driver of valuations in many industries and ours is no exception, in fact we might already be there, if not we are getting very close.
Has the panel contemplated ways to make the pricing process more transparent to the market it serves (perhaps by including an accurate summary of the process in the guide itself) if so what was the result?
The market is perhaps more forgiving of Pick given that they price every country in the world and attempt to do essentially all notes. They also don't position their text as being annual and as such the market is forgiving of the fact it is not up to date.
Greatly appreciate your time as we work through this discussion and identify potential improvements as we are on the horizon of yet another essential text to our industry, a greatly anticipated updated and current Chartered Guide. There is a mountain of important sales data to be considered from the online market as it relates to the current market reality on chartered notes (rare ones in particular). In fact it is the online market driving much of the B&M activity.
As you say some dealers haven't had much luck selling online as you say, the result of this failure is that they are then followers and not leaders in the online market segment and probably should not be speaking on its behalf. Of course it is never too late for the dealers you spoke of to take another run at the online market segment as it is a huge growing market, but 1st mover advantage is gone and the challenges still great. A small share of the growing online market is better than no share at all however.
To be highly successful online requires a different skill set than traditional B&M sellers are used to, this challenge has been greatly misunderstood and/or under-estimated by most who came in under-prepared; some ran away at the 1st or 2nd failure. Many thought and still think it is all about the "notes", the notes are but a part of the recipe for online sales success. Without the essential and unique online business ingredients failure is almost certain.
To maintain a decent market share in the overall market there is however a world of information available to them if they have the will and patience to reach out and expand their horizons.
Not to sound like a broken record but the Internet is the largest instant/liquid market available and growing faster than all other available sales channels, by far.
Thank you once again for investing some time with us here.
Troy
-
Could we lock this tread and move on ? It is painfully obvious to most that it is not going anywhere.
I don't mean to degrade the quality of the debate (although they can be much much shorter and to the point), we learned a lot. It is time to move on.
I find that many of the discussions tend to drag on longer than need.
Don
-
Good lord,
You have to be kidding, just when one of the greats of the industry makes his 1st post and starts to discuss some key issues.
Shaking my head wondering why someone who is tired of reading a thread topic continues to do so. Those of us who are still interested may want to have further discussion and we promise to "keep it down".
Troy.
-
Is that the 2nd or 3rd request to lock this thread? ::)
Yet,it has more 'views' than any thread I've seen in sometime.
Why would you read something that has become irrelevent-at least to you?
I've taken an attitude to view responses from those more schooled than I,fantastic discussion.
When I have something WORTH contributing,I will,until then,trap shut.
Perhaps I'm setting an example others may wish to follow? ;D
-
I sometimes wonder if we should not press the CPMS to establish three UNC grades. Simplistically: UNC 60 - 'commercial' unc, usualy handling, what you typically call UNC; UNC-63 a 'choice' note that has minimal handling, decent centering; the UNC-65, that "Gem" note that is utterly flawless in grade, centering and without counting creases or handling ( would eliminate 99.9% of 1935 and early 1954 issues). Then there would need to be a qualifier as to whether it is pressed or original - a serious and significant issue. Admittedly, the more complex the system the more scams and misrepresentation but we are getteing that anyway. As Charlton only uses one grade it means that better and lesser notes will sell for more or less and thus raise questions of the accuracy of Charlton.
Don
Fist off, is "old" synonymous with "senile"? Now that I've greeted you with the respect you deserve I, as you know agree with you in respect to a 3 level Unc category. Not a 977 level Unc category, just a 3 level.
I think realistically that that could be a doable option to press Charlton on, provided a consensus could be reached in regards to defining the standards. A man of your stature would of course have enormous influence in this.
I would propose the following due to the realities of the market.
Commercial Unc or Unc 60 could be in fact pressed. :o
Lets face it, 90% of the 37 issues and earlier are pressed. There is of course an enormous difference betweeen pressed and processed. Not to mention the fact that a lot of people weren't and still aren't aware that the 54 series, particularly the DF issues are supposed to be wavey. Charlton would do well to expand the information on notes.
Definitions could be stated. As in "If the note still smells like money but is flat as a pancake, it's a Commercial Unc. If, on the other hand the smell makes your eyes water and it curls into a perfect "U" when held under a halogen lamp-No, that's not an Unc at all"
I'd be inclined to call the next level Original Unc. Nice, unsullied and perhaps an actual light counting crease. I'm pro light counting creases.
The last level would of course be the Gem. In this category Charlton could be very exacting. Essentially the note would have to be perfect in as much as paper money can be. I would even go so far as to suggest on particularly rare notes in this category Charlton does the old "PWA" if need be to avoid the pricing issue altogether.
Would this stop the rampant over-grading? Probably not but it might slow it down. If one was to couple the above with tighter spreads in the lower grades, particularly AU to Unc as real Uncs are, for the most part ,simply not available in many of the series' it may slow down the tendency to over-grade by dealers and collectors alike plus make the collector more inclined to approach buying notes in a more serious fashion. As in actually looking at both sides of the note. That's usually the investor/collector that does that but in the end when they find out they've been screwed, the industry as a whole takes a hit. I could really care less about the "speculators". If they're gullible enough to believe the garbage posted on ebay and many other places by many they deserve what they get but we do lose a lot of genuine people to over-grading. They simply take their losses and move on. That is bad for everyone, both dealers and collectors alike-a line which is diminishing rapidly as the global market and the hobby continues to expand.
I think Charlton could do a lot in the above areas without a major expenditure. A broader explanation in the grades would do wonders on it's own.
As an aside I think it's better to be 10% low rather than 10% high or in your case-35% high.
In the end, the truly rare notes are going to sell at the price both parties agree on. 20% over cat or double cat, it makes no difference.
-
Don's remarks may have been in response to a read of the USA note grading thread (in this forum) before his post where, in response to a request for it, I laid out the world according to Friedberg.
The Friedbergs are using what is already considered a highly credible methodology. As indicated was likely going to happen in the other thread (as of yesterday) I have already started to introduce to the CDN market, very slowly, the Friedberg grading model focussing on explaining the 3 levels of UNC initially. Whether or not Charlton follows and does something similar will be up to those who put the guide together.
As far as the guide is concerned the matter of what I call broken or untested pricing logic on many critical issues is not comforted by the last posters comments, not even close. Anyone who saw what happened last night saw what happened when some more of the current pricing logic was stress tested in a no reserve auction on a note where only one existed in private hands. Approx 550% over 18th edition prices, and my concern isn't as much that it sold this far over book, a concern is who is representing this data and ensuring it is properly factored for next issue? What about all the other online sales of notes where only a couple or less than a handful of examples exist and the pricing in the market in no way shape form resembles the pricing according to Charlton?
The market needs and deserves an improved approach. Once there is an acknowledgement that this is the case, and desire to take action, good things will come. There is an old saying that goes "the things you resist, persist".
Unless I am invited back into this thread or someone tries to dismiss or undermine the validity of the concerns raised or incorrectly interprets them I am going to give the market time to reflect on what has been said to this point.
Thanks guys.
Troy.
-
The Charlton book has a method of obtaining prices from a group of people. It is hardly 100% perfect (but what is) in prices, but then what prices would you like to see?
The attempt is a cross-reference of contributors, including some of the largest sellers of paper.
If you have a better method, what is it?
Rick
-
The Charlton book has a method of obtaining prices from a group of people. It is hardly 100% perfect (but what is) in prices, but then what prices would you like to see?
The attempt is a cross-reference of contributors, including some of the largest sellers of paper.
If you have a better method, what is it?
Rick
Hello Rick,
I cannot possibly respond to this with the attention it deserves without registering another "personal attack" warning and a bunch of anal whining in respect to the party your comment is directed towards. Unfortunately some people seem incapable of understanding there are others with as much if not more knowledge of a particular subject. Now that that is out of the way I can move on :)
You have throughout this thread brought up valid points in respect to both the logistical difficulty and pragmatic issues regarding pricing in what is actually a very very small market though some apparently think it's huge. As the Trends editor you are probably in one of the best positions to comment on how small the market for both Canadian Coins and Paper truly is compared to other countries-which you have done.
To me the pricing methodology of Charlton could be enhanced by monitoring and factoring in major auction sales and Ebay sales. Of course the amount of qualification in respect to Ebay sales, unless sold by one of the major auctioneers would require a serious vetting process. For this vetting process, I at this time have no answer.
There is a saying that ebay is the "dumb selling to the dumber". In many ways this represents the current selling of Canadian paper money on ebay in spades. It used to be the same in coins but finally everyone wised up and started only buying ICCS, PCGS and to a lesser extent NGC with prices reflected for the 3rd party graders reputation on grading Canadian Coins.
However, if Charlton was to have a person monitor ebay sales and final prices realized in both major live and on-line auctions they would I believe arrive at prices that more accurately reflect the market.
I'm thinking some young kid that can do part time work at minimum wage. Say a University graduate who majored in Computer programming and is currently working at Radio Shack ;D
This cost could possibly be offset by Charlton increasing the price of the catalogue by a buck or two. It's the only game in town and we're all going to buy it anyhow.
The purpose of this would be to have a more hands on "feel" for the market as opposed to relying solely on the major contributors plus it would allow an averaging of note sales independently from dealers contributions. This would also pick up "aberrations" in the marketplace and discount them. As in someone is dipping into the wine and gets "bid happy" on-line and buys a 1967 $1 NSN for 240.00. Okay, that's exteme but you get my point.
I think that might be a start.
Wayne.
P.S. Hey, at least I offered up a starting point.
-
Rick,
Thanks for your post, it was received in good faith. Just when I try to pull away I am called upon again, seems like you folks can't get enough. (Smiles).
This reply is yours:
Step 1:
Full admission that the concerns raised thus far are valid and that we have come a long way from your earlier position that this thread is "totally stupid".
Step 2:
An answer to your question.
My answer will be considerably different than the last posters. Much of the extensive discussion thus far has already been on how to remedy the situation.
If you are interested or any and all members of the panel want to hear my answer (as you do) in greater detail I would suggest we move this beyond this thread and set up a meeting as this discussion has already reached a point where face to face would serve it far better.
At the meeting it would be helpful if the existing online and offline market experts on the panel were present to accelerate the sharing of ideas process. I believe we all want the market to have the best available information to work with, that is certainly my goal.
I can set up a conference room at Torex and we can meet there and conference in anyone who can't make it by telephone.
There are a couple others not on the panel but associated with the guide that I would like to see there and I would be willing to cover their travel expenses, as I hope is becoming clear by now I am dedicated to the cause and impossible to discourage.
Troy
-
If you are interested or any and all members of the panel want to hear my answer (as you do) in greater detail I would suggest we move this beyond this thread and set up a meeting as this discussion has already reached a point where face to face would serve it far better.
What a great starting point imvho!
Your offer to pay the travelling costs of certain participants is most generous Troy.
Finally,if your offer/suggestion is acted upon,this would seem to indicate a real step forward in resolving this most important topic. And as an aside,the market may interpret this bold initiative as forward thinking!
What a concept!
[Edited typo on "initiative" as per author's direction. There is an edit function, please use it instead of double-posting. --BWJM]
-
If you are interested or any and all members of the panel want to hear my answer (as you do) in greater detail I would suggest we move this beyond this thread and set up a meeting as this discussion has already reached a point where face to face would serve it far better.
At the meeting it would be helpful if the existing online and offline market experts on the panel were present to accelerate the sharing of ideas process. I believe we all want the market to have the best available information to work with, that is certainly my goal.
I can set up a conference room at Torex and we can meet there and conference in anyone who can't make it by telephone.
There are a couple others not on the panel but associated with the guide that I would like to see there and I would be willing to cover their travel expenses, as I hope is becoming clear by now I am dedicated to the cause and impossible to discourage.
Troy:
Might we have an up-date on your most generous and forward thinking offer.
Has this moved forward? Do we see progress in the foreseeable future towards a meeting to address what must be of concern to so many.
-
Good evening and thanks for the follow up.
All went quiet after my last post which raised the price of poker.
You should probably draw your own conclusions as to why that is.
Troy.
-
I don't see how you raised the price of poker anywhere, just talked the subject to death.
Sorry that the new catalogue doesn't comply with vague requests for increases in prices.
Rick
-
You were called out for face to face discussions (as so was the panel) as you seem to position yourself as their defender and voice. The purpose to was hear the voice of the Internet's leading and most active seller of Canadian Paper Money (and one of its top buyers if not the top at present) and a sharing of ideas on how best to capture market information and report it to the market we all serve. This is in the face of growing concern that the online market is not being taken into consideration properly and does not have the right representation on the panel. This concern is shared by many and the evidence is in hand.
The online market and its resulting data (on very rare key issue notes - after all the concern was always stated within the context of this narrow focus) will have it's say and will be accounted for properly, let's just hope not at the cost of the credibility of the entire pricing infrastructure we currently have in place. It would be a better event for the market I believe and those who serve it to bring the 2 worlds together in harmony.
What you saw here was a large part of the market asking as nicely as it could to be listened to and acknowledged. Next time it is extremely doubtful it will be as delicate. This issue is not going away and will not cool down until it is addressed. About a year ago (or slightly more) there was laughter on the street about the online market being as good or important as the B&M market, well from where I am sitting that online market is having a few chuckles of it's own now.
Incidentially I have now ordered more than 100 copies in the last 60 days of the text I seek to improve. I believe I have earned the right to ask questions and raise concerns on several different levels.
Troy
-
I guess so, Troy.
Should this not be addressed to Mr. Cross, along with a request that you be included in the next panel? As you are not pleased with the catalogue, perhaps you could write your own.
Rick
-
Actually Rick it was addressed to you as you are the one sticking your neck out consistently on this, throwing the odd tantrum here and there along the way.
Yes I will "write my own" or possibly an electronic version if necessary with the help of several well known people in the industry, I owe the market and all those who use the Internet as their primary buy channel. I believe the online market needs a champion to ensure it gets the respect it deserves.
I intend to deliver by ensuring they have a voice of proper weighting. I could care a less about personally profiting from such an undertaking of creating a price guide which gives them and the data they create proper respect.
At the end of the day what matters to me is that when someone pays $5000 in a competitive auction for a note where only one exists I can look them in eye and tell them I am doing what I can to ensure the price guide reflects the purchase price, not some other version of reality.
I will walk through a sea of people calling this concern and concerns like it "totally stupid" until the concerns are acknowledged as being fully valid. What is to be done about it is a matter for the best minds in the industry to get together face to face to discuss.
Troy
-
Troy, besides called me names in this site, and little remarks to others you don't like or don't like their viewpoint.
Write your own book, good luck to you.
I am not a defender of Mr. Cross's methods of obtaining prices, he can well defend himself. I am also not a contributor to the catalogues, either coins or notes.
Your motivation for grossly increased prices is based on what? Do you have an inside track of all the sales of all the note sellers in Canada?
Why do you thing others might contribute to you setting prices on notes? Ebay sales are higher now than a year ago, but still only a small portion of the overall sales of notes. No one knows what the total is, all we have in rough guesses.
Ebay sales are weighed in the trends that I do, I report on prices, not where I would like them to be.
Rick
-
I believe I am in the best position to speak to the online market and yes I have an inside track as to what is happening in the online market if that isn't somehow already obvious to you.
I have also reread my post, please point out where you were called a "name". If what you mean is when you called this thread "totally stupid" for everyone to see and I then just described your remark as a "tantrum", I apologize, I shouldn't have described your comment in this way; much the same way you should have apologized when you jumped back into this thread after slamming it and leaving.
The fact you are reporting online trends is not comforting to me, particularly after reading what you have had to say in this thread. I have also seen the prices in the trends and have a list of corrections I can send you if you like starting with the 1935 & 1937 $1000. These corrections come from a large sample of data generated in the online and offline world.
My world includes eBay and the online market, it does not exclude the others. I kind of like the B&M market myself, it has been a wonderful place to buy notes wholesale over the last year.
The mission is not to report inflated prices, the mission is to accurately report what is actually happening.
If there is nothing else I will leave it at that.
Troy.
-
The remark left answered the information left by the previous person, your friend. Remember, the "formal complaint" stuff a while ago.
The pricing panel in the Charlton consists of the following. Louis Chevrier, Harry Eineshauer, Mike Findlay, Nick Gerbinski, Ian Laing, Peter McDonald, Andrew McCaig, Charles Moore, Don Olmstead, and Gilles Pomerleau. All are well known, several of them sell items on eBay.
The editor is Robert Graham, the assistant is Lub Wojtiw.
Some of the contributors include Dick Dunn, Gary Fedora, Brent Mackie and Paul Wallis; All from this group are regulars on this site.
The question asked before. As Troy is not among the names in the book, and neither is mine, who should be on the pricing panel? Then the question, who should (either in the book or in the new electronic version of the book being contemplated) be the contributors, editor or pricing panel.
The part mentioned before, Charlton's has difficulty getting contributors to the paper book or coin book. How can these people be motivated to give information.
Rick
-
Can someone please define what B&M market stands for? Thanks.
-
Bricks and Mortar - a classic abbreviation I believe that was exceptionally well used during the high tech emergence of the internet :D
-
Good evening and thanks for the follow up.
All went quiet after my last post which raised the price of poker.
You should probably draw your own conclusions as to why that is.
Troy.
Either you scared everyone off or people simply got tired of your self aggrandizement and seeming inability to understand that others have a fairly good grasp of the market-be it on-line or B&M. Some actually know how to accurately grade a note as well.
It's probably the former.
-
Either you scared everyone off or people simply got tired of your self aggrandizement and seeming inability to understand that others have a fairly good grasp of the market-be it on-line or B&M. Some actually know how to accurately grade a note as well.
It's probably the former.
Good God man, what have you done? :o Oh well; at least the forum will be lively for the next couple of days...but I'm kind of feeling both hot AND cold right now, because I dread what may will be coming :-X
-
There is always a better way to do everything and if the process and memebership of the Charlton pricing panel can be improved, great. Overall, I think Bob Graham does an outstanding job. It is more timely and accurate than the other catalogues produced for other world notes and better than most single-country catalogues like those for Italy or Britain.
The endless references to the EBay or on-line 'world' as if it is beating down the walls of the rest of the market is really a bit much. We all know that eBay is a factor in sales and will be a factor and will likely grow. But it is characterized by different standards and most knowledgeable collectors I know are very careful and very wary of eBay after being burned with overgraded notes and refund problems - problems I have personally experienced that far exceed the similar problems I encounter with mail orders.
As with auctions, single sales are not the new catalogue price. Dealer lists, auctions and show sales are necessarily known to be unreliable comparisons - how do you know that UNC that sold at TOREX was really UNC or a pressed AU ? How do you know that UNC I sold was not a pressed AU ?
eBay sales really are harder to integrate into pricing as we all know they are more fickle and fluid, less reliable. What if one took a major eBay sellers results and used them as a partial basis for pricing and that eBay seller was a more conservative grader than the average market ? Then cat prices would be factored lower. Conversly, if the grading was too loose the factor would be to increase cat prices when they should not be.
There are not 'two worlds', there are several : auctions, shows, mail order, eBay, private sales, etc. No one really knows who is biggest because there are no idpendent records. Some collectors are bigger players than some dealers.
Troy - one must always be wary of someone offering to be champion of a field that they are making money from. There would be little credibility in me saying I should dominate pricing. It would be self-serving and transparently corrupt.
Anyone can publish a book of prices but it would simply be seen as a self-serving attempt to justify their own prices based on their own grading. Unless judiciously averaged in with many other sources, there is no credibility. There could be a published eBay sales results but based on my experience, and many others, it would be suspect and regarded as a eBay thing, ie. who know what the notes really were graded like. Some eBayers don't grade the notes so there is really NO BASIS for charting those sale as who know what the heck the grade was ??!!
At a minimum eBay sellers could, if they think their sales amount to a useful data base, sumbit the results to Bob Graham each spring. They can be given fair weight - like any other source, none of which are singularly reliable unto themselves.
Enough for now...
OleDon
-
Hear Hear, OleDon!
eBay sales should probably NOT be factored into catalogue prices, or if they are, they should be weighted as a very small percentage of overall sales. Prices should be set by the experts in the field, not by someone who is selling the 1954 $50 note they found wedged in their Grandma's dresser drawer, who has absolutely NO IDEA how to grade a note or how common/uncommon a note may be.
I also have been burned on eBay. I bought a supposedly UNC note from a seller with a 100% positive feedback rating, where the note was most obviously pressed, probably was an EF! Luckily it was a low-priced asterisk note, so I didn't even mind that much.
I have also bought on eBay from a supposedly reputable seller in the Prairies, where, from all appearances, the grading was according to the CPMS standards published in Charlton's. No mention was made that CCGS grading was being used. Imagine my surprise when I received a note described as UNC that had prominent creases, and was cut so far off centre that part of the design was missing!
-
I am on the road this evening on a lousy PC in a hotel lobby so I will reply tomorrow night but post a brief reply to Don below, anything else that requires a reply or action of some other kind will be addressed shortly.
I am starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel "At a minimum eBay sellers could, if they think their sales amount to a useful data base, sumbit the results to Bob Graham each spring. They can be given fair weight - like any other source, none of which are singularly reliable unto themselves"
If eBay produces the sale of a note where only 1, 2 or a few are known to exist the expectation is that this data is captured and reported. Same theme on notes which are simply known as rare, in this case the sale will need to be weighted with other sales.
It has taken a lot of energy to get to this point, let's build on it and get a reporting process in place and get on with it. Disclosure needs to be given as to how the process will work and what exactly will happen with the data.
I can recommend a few online online sellers who the panel may want to consider as contributors from the online market segment.
Troy
-
Just a quick point. If you look in the 17th edition of the catalogue the pricing for the 1969 $20 *WA is quite specific ... one listing price for a VF note and one for an UNC note these representing the two known notes. I beleive the VF note was an e-bay sale which the committee did add to the catalogue disproving the allegation that e-bay sales are ignored. In the 18th edition, these two notes show a generous appreciation to reflect their rarity.
Similarly now that a known sale of a G/R test note occurred on e-bay, I would expect that this will find it's way into the catalogue. My question .... is this debate trying to fix something that is not really broken?
Don's issue of grading is very significant. There are certain e-bay sellers that I can trust the grading on, but for the most part the bulk of notes I have bought on e-bay are overgraded. A case in point: The *V/V that I bought a few months ago from a well known e-bay seller was graded as AU-UNC. If there was no vetting of this process this sale might have affected the catalogue price for *V/V notes. I had the note graded by a third party and it was EF+ and I negotiated a price reduction with the seller..... but this part of the transaction was not on the public record.
-
eyevet-
Examples speak louder than words. Well spoken.
OleDon...should I be YoungDon or at least MiddleAgeDon ???
-
I believe two of the G/R test note have now been sold on ebay eyevet. Both in signifigantly different grades so I'd suspect you will be proven correct.
-
My question .... is this debate trying to fix something that is not really broken?
These are important issues that need to be dealt with before the entire paper money business and yes, the very hobby itself spiral uncontrollably downwards into an unredeemable miasma that could lead to the collapse of the economies of both Canada and the United States and then what?
The silver bullion hoarders will be proven correct? You perhaps can live with that but I, my good Sir/M'am, find that both unacceptable and onerous.
God save the Queen.
-
It is completely original, not pressed, with fresh paper and near perfect corners. The note is virtually uncirculated, except that it has three significant vertical folds.
As requested in the original thread, the above quote has been copied here. It is the text of an eBay auction description.
OleDon requested that it be copied here, and he will be offering comments at his next convenience.
-
I can see once again an attempt to deflect this topic into a discussion on grading. Grading is absolutely imperfect particularly in the case where a seller has an opportunity to sell an item sight unseen. You have international sellers with different grading standards, you have novices trying to grade and you have experienced dealers simply over grading to attempt to boost prices and you have educated differences of opinion, even between experts and grading firms.
It is buyer beware as always and naturally deal with those who have exceptional reputations and superb no risk refund policies. I have bought hundreds of over-graded notes sight unseen from some of Canada's largest B&M dealers and I will leave it at that. I have also stood in front of many mid-sized dealers face to face and hear them pitch the condition of a note and when I pick it up and have a close look I wonder if they just pitched me the same note I am looking at. One of my favorite things to do at a show is instantly spot the handful of dealers who up the price and grade as I express early interest in a piece and continue to make my rounds of the room. No one is a perfect grading machine, me included, any dealer who tells you that clients haven't returned a note because they were unhappy with it is either a liar or telling their version of the truth. What dealer can do is strive for increased disclosure, fewer mistakes and numbers like 4 returns for every 1000 notes sold which would put them light years ahead of the industry average and just about every other industry which requires buyers to pay for product prior to possession.
My experience has been essentially almost 100% of the dealers who mock eBay is due to their failure to capture market share and in fact lose market share because of their inability to succeed in the online marketplace. I expect the envy is only going to get worse as the online market outpaces the growth of every other sales channel by a million miles on a go forward basis and all they are left with is table scraps eventually because of their failure to modernize. I can tell you this I will be singing about the viability of the online market for many years to come and will doing everything I can to continue to develop it and using it as a tool to continue to attract international collectors to Canadian Paper.
The concern that needs to be addressed to a conclusion is one of proper representation of the online market on the pricing panel and data capture of eBay and online produced sales results on rare notes, such as the case where 1 or 2 or a less than a handful may exist and the guide 1) fails to report them as even being "rare" and 2) has a price which reflects a version of reality not based on market results off by triple digit percentiles in many cases.
If you want to get back to talking about a process which will remedy this I would be delighted to work this to a successful conclusion.
Don you mentioned at a minimum Internet Sellers could report results to Bob Graham, let's talk about what this process would look like end to end in far greater detail including what the panel will do with the info and let's also talk about what can be done at a "maximum reasonable basis" as well as the minimum is a good place to start but more will be required to address the concerns raised.
If you would like to talk about the Australian and USA models I would be delighted, we dont need to spend any time on the weaker non-annual models of the two countries you mentioned as it is mutually agreed what we have now is better than what they are working with save except the fact the British Duggleby 6th edition guide is being beat up on by the Banknote Yearbook (2005 4th edition) and by Rotographic's 14th ed of Collectors' Banknotes - Treasury and Bank of England which are now taking market share and reputation away from an increasingly obsolete Duggleby 2002 guide, which was the undisputed champion.
My position of funding a venture to build a team of industry pros who would be compensated for creating an alternate pricing model (which has perhaps a 30% weighting <weighting would increase as the net continues to gain market share year over year> of online trends produced by a cross section of the most active online sellers. If the net produces the only sale of a rare note than that's the new price in the guide; afterall the guide is supposed to report market results right?) is and remains it will be done only if necessary (it's the last thing I want to take on at present) as having such a guide which seeks to capture the data is better than having nothing in place at all. I would prefer not to have to undertake this as the Charlton Guide is an excellent body of work to build on and some changes can evolve it to where it needs to go and not be left eventually obsolete with the growth of the Internet sales channel.
Don we can here and now work through your initial suggestion of reporting to Bob as a place to start for all to see or if you prefer to do this in private over dinner at Torex. It doesn't matter to me where and how as long as this matter is taken seriously and we can all agree on what is in the market's best interest. Any further ideas on what additional steps could be taken to address the concerns raised would be appreciated and received in good faith.
Troy.
P.S.
Re the new CPMS newsletter: does anyone else find it statistically interesting that 5 of the 8 known historical sales of the 1912 $10 Bank of Toronto note and 4 of 7 of the 1914 $50 were eBay sales? The sales data is also more current. The answer I would like to get to is the pricing panel finds it very interesting and important and will treat it as such.
-
Simple amazing.Just plain amazing.As many stray off topic,make personal attacks,write in a condescending manner,I made the original post with a mind to positive change.That was all.
No disresopect to Charlton,as one here alleged.
Why are so many resisting change?Why so much venom?
I can list at least 6 B&M Dealers that have ripped me off,with over grading,hype,over-priced,notes.
Yet I had to wade thru comments like this,from open minded community members?Highly doubt it
must admit, after just wading through the misery of the Pricing Panel thread for the last 20 minutes,
there would certainly be a full-time position available for hallway monitor / the grading police for such things...
I don't see how you raised the price of poker anywhere, just talked the subject to death.
I also have been burned on eBay. I bought a supposedly UNC note from a seller with a 100% positive feedback rating, where the note was most obviously pressed, probably was an EF! Luckily it was a low-priced asterisk note, so I didn't even mind that much.
This is about solututions,which only OleDon and Troy seem to be willing to put forth.Personally,I don't have the knowledge or experience to offer credible solutions.
May I put it that most here don't as well. :)
Good thing you all weren't around when they decided to give women the vote.Change you know,progress,making things better,and adapting to new business models.
-
The Charlton book has a method of obtaining prices from a group of people. It is hardly 100% perfect (but what is) in prices, but then what prices would you like to see?
The attempt is a cross-reference of contributors, including some of the largest sellers of paper.
If you have a better method, what is it?
Rick
I have gone through each of the posts on all 4 pages of this thread, and it seems that Rick's question remains at the crux of this discussion and also remains unanswered: "If you have a better method, what is it?".
I have heard (particularly from MonetaryMan and runningonempty) about "WHAT" is wrong...but little or nothing about "HOW" to fix it? OK - maybe eBay sales should be factored into the pricing, and rarer notes are not priced realistically...so HOW, practically, should Charlton's resolve its deficiencies in these areas? What, specifically, should Charlton's do differently when setting the prices for their 19th edition??
According to runningonempty, the bulk of the members of this forum will apparently be unable to formulate solutions as to HOW Charlton's could resolve its pricing inefficiencies. So, if MonetaryMan ("MM") or OleDon ("OD") DO have answers as to HOW the prices should be determined for Charlton's 19th edition, then the conclusion of this discussion should be very, very simple:
1) MM and OD should (as paid consultants of course) put forth their solutions to Charlton's, so that the 19th and future editions will be more realistic in the pricing, or
2) MM and/or OD should start their own catalogue or "trends" publications. If Charlton's cannot adapt its catalogue to compete, then, according to the "survival of the fittest" theory, Charlton's will naturally go out of business and the superior new publication(s) will thrive.
I am not a slave to Charlton's! I know, as do many others, that they are behind the times, both in their prices and in the delivery format of the information (hard-copy vs. online, but that's another matter). However I am strictly a collector of paper money and not a dealer. Paper money is only a hobby for me rather than a source of income. Since I don't make a living by trading in paper money, I probably could not come up with a "better" pricing method than that used by Charlton's pricing panel, since I don't know the ins and outs of buying and selling paper money day in and day out.
I am all for progress and making things better. I'm not being flippant here: If anyone can put out a better catalogue/pricing guide than Charlton's, then please, by all means, LET'S HAVE IT! Let's stop nagging about WHAT is wrong...one of you entrepreneurs out there - start up a new and improved, more relevant publication that takes care of all of Charlton's short-comings. Price it reasonably (say about $30), and I will buy a copy every year (or two), and I will relegate my Charlton's catalogues to the trash can!!
-
I believe we were finally in the midst of discussing the resolution and steps to get there immediately prior to your post.
I have also invited the Don and the panel for meetings and further discusson here to put different remedies forward.
My world includes Charlton unless it turns it's back on the concerns.
The ball is in their court now.
Troy
-
Good grief...nearly 100 posts under this thread and we're only in the MIDST of getting to a resolution?
Troy, I'm glad to hear that you have invited the pricing panel to "round-table" discussions...hopefully they will play that ball in their court so that they can hear the ideas you and others have to improve their publication! I too shall remain loyal to Charlton's only so long as they are the best-available alternative. If a superior publication comes along, naturally collectors will - some quickly, and some slowly - gravitate toward it.
-
venga50
According to runningonempty, the bulk of the members of this forum will apparently be unable to formulate solutions as to HOW Charlton's could resolve its pricing inefficiencies.
My statement relating to this comment was an observation,NOT A conclusion.I also offered that I'm not qualified,nor experienced enough to submit credible alternatives.Honesty,although not always self-serving,does the mind and soul good.
If you have read all 100 posts,and I assume you have by your statement"Good grief...nearly 100 posts under this thread and we're only in the MIDST of getting to a resolution
,you do understand how many who have posted here were,at least at the start of this conversation,resistant to change.
I think we've come a long way.Please re-read the first post I made here,I'm the first to buy the Charlton when available.
Like you,if a better guide materializes,that reflects what I see in the market place,they too shall have my support.
I can't see not buying the Charlton Paper Edition,no matter how many enter the market.It is irreplaceable imo.
Hopefully,it will be made more current in a timely fashion,as well as updated sooner,how ever the powers that be decide.
This is what this thread is about-solutions,to make something better that is a great tool.
Man o man some people sure have been defensive ;D
-
As promised,an up-date to the following.
Let's take this a step further with scarce notes.
Anyone who wishes to sell the following notes at current book has a definite sale.
1).Osbourne/Towers $2 Original Unc-$950.3 please!!
2).English $25 Original Unc$11,000
3).Osborne/Towers $1000 Original Unc $8500-two please!!!
4).1935 $1000 English Original Unc $9000
5).Gordon/Towers JA Original Unc $2000.2 please.
This is a partial list of notes desired by myself and two friends.
I am not trying to turn this into a debate about which notes are under-valued,rather that scarce notes in Original Unc are almost impossible at Catalogue.
Ending this part of my response,I suggest it truly is false to say "The old stuff about if note A trends for $400, I will take them all simply doesn't fit anything." If you can't buy them at...nugh said.
I will up-date you regarding the # of responses I receive to the above offers.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Give a guy an inch and he takes a mile but I can't let you get away with this one
2).English $25 Original Unc $11,000
- nope, please add approx 15% on the English and at least 20% on the french to be competive in the offline and online market.
3).Osborne/Towers $1000 Original Unc $8500-two please!!!
- nope, to be competitive in a list of people waiting for this note in the online and offline market you will need add, on a good day 25%, on a bad bad for you 35%.
4).1935 $1000 English Original Unc $9000
- sorry, the market (offline and online) is paying 27.5%-30% more than that on this note.
But you know this already, that's why you want em, you little devil you!
The other 2 I would have to defer to someone else who have greater sales experience in the issues and on the current market landscape for the notes but I am of the opinion that the $2 Osborne appears to under-valued at $950, I would need to check with the market before sounding as sure I normally do before voicing an opinion with a high degree of confidence.
With over 3500 views to this thread,and over 500 members to this site,not 1, zero,nada.offers to sell any of the above notes,at either book,or Troy's suggested current market trends.
I think that's very telling.
-
What is really telling is such notes hardly exist, and are seldom traded. The catalogue is an estimate on the price should that note in that condition be offered for sale, it is not an offer to sell them.
There is no registry of the number of certain notes in certain grades that exist, nor does one claimed to be in a particular grade mean that it is in the grade.
All we have to go on in the cat. price, and auction material and their selling price. No one knows how many exist, so the rest is educated guess work.
With coins, we can go to the ICCS population report and get an idea. There is no equivalent in paper.
For example, how many 1909 Bank of Hamilton $100 notes exist? What grades exist? What is the value of these notes in VF, EF, AU and Unc?
Rick
-
Rick,
How do you describe the published information as found in this months CPMS newsletter and the others before it where a summary of notes known, grades known and ownership details of many key issue notes are known.
I ask this question with good intentions of discovery of your point of view, not as sarcasm.
I have also traded several examples of some of the notes listed by runningonempty in the last few months (some of which were sourced through Ted Bailey and Mel Steinberg) and have the sales data/serial#'s available.
Troy
-
The information of the CPMS is first class, however, the grades are "as traded". There is no 3rd party to have verified them.
This information is basically priceless if one considers the sources. The grades are really unknown, and many private treaty sales may not have the prices (or grades) published anywhere.
This is similar to problems in doing trends for coins, except population reports are published, the grade is known, and the price is sometimes on public record.
Without showing sarcasm, written without predjudice, expressing my opinion based on many years in the numismatic industry.
Rick
-
So when you said this "No one knows how many exist, so the rest is educated guess work" you meant no one knows for certain how many exist in a certain grade, please confirm. Also do you agree that even grading firms will disagree with one another so I question the whole notion of certainty myself. We even have dealers and top collectors here with different opinions on what is meant by GEM UNC.
I was glad to see you recognize the work registry done in the CPMS newsletters, some of us rely on it as a basis to reason out population info.
Troy
-
No one knows how many exist, so the rest is educated guess work.
This is what I said, the rest is your statement.
I took many years before joining the CPMS, and told Dick Dunn I would only join if I got a radar number, which is did (1221). Fits well with my CNA number (11111).
There is no definition accepted for Choice, Gem, original, pristine or select Uncirculated notes. Such terms are in the fingers of the person typing them, and usually extra adverbs and adjectives are added to increase the asking price or adding to the perceived value of a particular note.
Neither Charlton nor trends uses the terms outlined above.
I am not sure how this particular "pricing panel" got so far off track. It will be much better when Troy gets his prices on line to correct the catalogues.
Rick ;D
-
No Charlton does not use those terms nor does the trends however there has been discussion on this forum about rolling out a 3 level UNC system and many buyers of Canadian currency do use those terms, particularly USA based buyers. One dealer presented his definition of a GEM UNC note and market premium associated with it and I have provided mine which comes from the most widely used and respected system in the USA.
Continued attempts will fail to personalize the desire for the online market and many of its top buyers to have their sales data captured and reported on rare key issue notes; some of us moved well past that and understand that the prices are those decided by a large group of online auction buyers who use the Internet almost exclusively as their buy channel, the prices are their own. Until now they have had lousy representation which I seek to improve on their behalf. I understand that the online market has not been as important in the past or been so vocal so the years gone by are water under the bridge, there is serious concern looking forward however as the web is now producing more and more very important market data to be factored alongside all the other market data.
Here is where we are:
What will the process will look like for online sellers to submit appropriate data to Bob Graham for consideration? This question is for Don O or any other member of the panel that wants to jump in. This question is in response to Don O's suggestion that this could be done at a minimum to address some of the concerns raised in this thread.
I for one like the suggestion and think it represents the road to market harmony and a Charlton Guide with improved credibility.
Troy
-
No question the electronic market is important, and is growing in importance.
How do we determine who is qualified to submit prices to Mr. Graham, and has Mr. Graham accepted this task?
Rick
-
Now that's a post destined to get the job done so we can move on to even bigger and better things one day.
Thank you for that and there are many online buyers will also thank you for that.
The answers will be coming shortly, I am confident.
As for me I am taking the rest of the night off.
Troy
-
Evening gentlemen...
With respect to the CPMS lists of known notes they are a very helpful aid and base. But it would be unwise to use them as more. Remember, they only represent the notes that were reported to Bob & Harry plus auctions and dealer lists. Some notes have shown up twice in different grades - naturally, it was a higher grade the second time ! I understand there is a move afoot to publish these lists and that is excellent. It is critical, however, that new collectors know, like us old bags, that there are doubtless more notes of every type that are simply unreported. Some collectors are very secretive. It is a start and a great start but not difinitive so collectors ought to be wary of any use of those lists as being implied definitives in order to sell notes as " one of 5 known" etc. Many notes show up and not all get recorded - this very week I bought a Metroploitan Bank $10 of 1902, Moore signature. The catalogue says " no known issued notes" but that is not super-surprising. I have bought totally unlisted charters over the years. The lists are a work-in-progress and I am certain that neither Harry or Bob, nor the CPMS that publishes them, would suggest otherwise. I am sure they would all be aghast that anyone might infer greater certainty than the simple reporting they provide.
As to eBay sales as a catalogue pricing base there are extreme difficulties but need to be addressed. We all know that an eBay sale might not be concluded; the item might be returned, thus no real sale; often there are no grades even 'suggested'; we have no real knowledge of the grade of the note. Auctions and dealer lists have similar reliability issues but the Editor and others have a better sense of the certainty and reliability of other sales. How to consider eBay AND factor it is the challenge. That is Bob's challenge !!
OleDon
-
Hi Don,
The registers are being used only in the context you mentioned by those that I know; what you said is well known to most of us. They do however represent the best available information we have and there is an increasing number of traders reporting notes to them to improve the data.
The comment about an eBay sale potentially not concluding is not a concern I share above any other market or sales channel with less than 0.8% of my sales falling into this category, unfortuntely I don't have the other sellers 'sale not completed' %. I recognize the online market is larger than me.
I do understand the issue that some notes may not be graded, however that is a less of an issue where only a few are known and close to a non issue if the note is the only one known. The important thing is to get the sales data captured and reflected in the guide on a go forward basis.
Now that we have established that eBay results need to be factored (it was clear they were not being factored before <at least not properly> even though it was suggested they were) I am definitely prepared to settle down and let everyone reflect on this for a few weeks to think about what comes next.
In the meantime it would be good to decide who inside the panel is going to make sure all this data is properly represented and not lost in process or lack thereof. As you can appreciate given the history of this discussion, and several attempts by others to silence it, there is not a high degree of confidence at present that this will take care of itself.
I would like to see this through end to end so at the end of the day collectors who expressed concerns like the one who started this entire thread can breathe a sigh of relief. It is this large and rapidly growing group of collectors who seek evolutionary steps that I serve and represent and will continue to serve and represent. Some of us who deal are also hardcore collectors so the passion runs deep on this entire matter on several different levels.
If I put on strictly my collectors hat the questions that have been asked to date are elementary and do not represent the full scope of concerns that exist, especially on the horizon of the upcoming 5th edition of the chartered note guide. I am hoping the right pricing panel is in place (ie. they are prepared to take on the new challenges before them), everyone then contributes, little or no blanket formulas are applied, online sales are factored of rare key issue chartered. Given that the guide is produced 2 or 3 times a decade a suggestion about how to factor prices year over year (as a simple baseline method in between new versions of the guide) may be useful.
There has also been a huge amount of ABNC Chartered Specimen wholesaler sales activity that should be captured. I have a lot of data as it relates to many Nova Scotia/ NS Jamaica/Halifax issue notes, Bank of Toronto & Bank of Montreal.
Obviously as you well know Chuck is going to have some important current data of his own coming from Torex.
The expectations are high as everyone knows the chartered market is on fire and the guide long overdue and essentially currently obsolete.
The fact that it is so highly anticipated creates an even greater responsibility to not disappoint. The anticipation itself is evidence of market health.
Troy