CPM Forum
Special => Insert & Replacement Notes => Topic started by: friedsquid on June 10, 2007, 08:40:30 pm
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Not knowing much about inserts and somewhat confused, how does one decide on a price for an insert that is recently found and no range(s) have been determined.
For example; a $5, $10, or $20 insert sheet replacement would go for about how much? And a SNR of the same denomination would go for about how much? I know it is hard to determine how many will remain or be found in an UNC condition, but in general ,what prices are we looking at for these types of notes? Any ideas or feedback is appreciated and once again, thanks in advance.
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what confuses me is no one ever heard of SNR's until a couple of weeks ago and know there is 20 on the market
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Atleast I am not the only confused one ???
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SNR's (R is for "replacement" :) ) may have been around for a while, but since the rise of collector knowledge on how they are inserted, we have been able to set some sort of gauge for aproximate scarcity.
It "seems likely" that there will be less SNR's found that sheet replacements for any given range, simply by the frequency of finds and the concentration within bricks.
Now that we can determine a difference, different ranges are now commanding different style premiums- because we know that there is a different process, and we believe that thenumbers are alot less (based on what has been found from what I understand).
As replacements have always been, the initial pricing has always been tricky. Some have shot through the roof, and some have gone down in value. We don't know which ones will do what though.
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No one knows for sure Calamari mon, I try to email da prediction lady Missy Jane Dixon (National Equirer) and she not know what is an insert, at best she is 50% anyway. Actress Shirley Maclean say she is god, but say she don know me and tells me to consult my inner something, so I think she is just pretending to be god because she don know insert from banana in da ground.
The best thing I do is wait for more info, give it a year or two.
Bob Marley lives because reggae lives...Dei Gratia
PD
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No one knows for sure Calamari mon, I try to email da prediction lady Missy Jane Dixon (National Equirer) and she not know what is an insert, at best she is 50% anyway. Actress Shirley Maclean say she is god, but say she don know me and tells me to consult my inner something, so I think she is just pretending to be god because she don know insert from banana in da ground.
The best thing I do is wait for more info, give it a year or two.
Bob Marley lives because reggae lives...Dei Gratia
PD
Me nuh sho dat calamari is de same as squid, Punkys Dad mon. De calamari is hoctopus, ain it?
An dat Shirley McLean gyal is bonkers, mon. She doan nuh know da troof from da lie. She too fass and facety!
Now me gwan to go n git some jerk chicken, mon.
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Doesn`t a "SNR" come from a sheet "So for me there should be no difference in the price". Only because someone says that they only found a SNR in a brick, IS that good enough reason to ask for more money for a SNR . ???
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This has to be made clear.
All notes are printed in sheets of some size.
Sheet replacements are "inserted" when an entire sheet is removed.
Single Note Replacements (SNRs) are "inserted" to replace single notes that have been found unfit to release for whatever reason. Because it is only a single position being replaced, the "estimated scarcity" could be seen to be approximately 40x as rare as a range of notes that is inserted in full sheets.
Based on the information obtained by many dedicated searchers, the characteristics of SNRs point to a single brick (or two or three...) consecutively that are used to replace any defective note, regardless of what position it lies in on its sheet.
They appear more randomly, and often much more infrequently. With sheet replacements, you can predict where replacements will be found in every brick in the ream- just from one brick.
With SNRs you cannot. It is different every time.
Hope this helps.
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So lets say that a SNR is inserted into a brick and 1000 notes are used up as replacements. Now more are needed to be replaced because of damaged notes where does the next one(s) come from? the same prefix and next consecutive 1000? and so on
Then just increasing that range of inserts?
Say only 100 of the SNR are used where does the rest of the brick of notes that were to be used for replacements end up if not used? Shoved into another prefix?
So are a specific serial numbers printed specifically designed to be used as a replacement notes and nothing else?
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Me nuh sho dat calamari is de same as squid, Punkys Dad mon. De calamari is hoctopus, ain it?
Gud Mornin Punky's Dad mon. All is irie. Sumody tell mi sey yuh dida talk bout mi? Ya No See It?
I is Friedsquid mon or da Calamari is fine. No octopus tho,
I say to him galang bout yuh business. No time to argu. Remember ..
“the higher the monkey climbs the more him expose”
More time.
FRIEDSQUID
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THE FULL MEAL DEAL IN REGARDS TO REPLACEMENT NOTES IN THE JOURNEY SERIES
What we have seen is that eventually they do use up all the notes and then the grab another "Random Brick" to be used SOLELY for Replacements. Again there have been a few times they did set 2 or 3 bricks in sequence aside.... This is still a Far Cry from a total of 40 Bricks set aside that are used in replacing sheets (40 Notes per sheet and 1000 sheets... This is an entire ream.... Thus our typical Sheet Replacement range = 40,000 Notes).
Here is how it this all works (Sheet vs Single Note Replacements)....
Preliminary Details:
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We have a Brick (ABC 3321000 - 3321999) being used for Single Note Replacements (SNR).
We have Ream (ABC 3325000 - 3365000) being used for Sheet Replacements.
You get a Brick from the bank (For this example we will say AOM 5432000 - 5432999)
DEFINITIONS:
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1 Sheet of notes = 40 Notes
1 Ream of notes = 1000 Sheets (40,000 Notes)
1 Brick of Notes = 1000 Notes (A Ream when cut will yield 40 Bricks in Sequence)
So lets say in these examples the brick (AOM 5432000) the 206 and 207 Notes have been replaced (From Damage or whatever).
Example #1: Sheet Replacements
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So according to this IF THEY WERE SHEET REPLACEMENTS (Same Front & Back Plate Numbers) then the 206 and 207 Notes will be missing from EVERY SINGLE BRICK IN THE REAM and have replacements placed (Where the 206 and 207 Notes were in each brick).
This is because both sheets of notes... the 206 sheet and the 207 sheet were COMPLETELY REMOVED BEFORE THE NOTES WERE CUT and 2 ENTIRE SHEETS of replacement notes were put in their place THEN the notes were cut into individual bricks.
So each replacement (206 and 207 will increase in serial number by 1000 for each brick in sequence). So this means you would get the following:
Our example Brick AOM 5432000 will have lets say ABC 3325000 & ABC 3325001 in place of the AOM 206 and 207 Bricks. What this means is the NEXT brick in the ream (AOM 5433000) will have ABC 3326000 and ABC 3326001 in place of the 206 and 207 Notes.... And so on for the entire ream of AOM Notes. This is the first 2 sheets of notes in the ream of Sheet Replacements being used. Then in next ream of AOM Notes may have one or two more sheets used in different positions until all 1000 sheets are eventually used up.
With Single Note replacements this is VERY different....
Example #2: Single Note Replacements (SNR's)
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So lets go all the way back to our original Brick we got from the bank with a different scenario (SNR's)...
We have our AOM 5432000 and the 206 and 207 Notes are missing again. This time we have ABC 3321000 and ABC 3321001 (From our Designated Range of Single Note Replacements) in their place and the Front and back plate numbers do not match.
So what this means is that the ENTIRE REAM of AOM Notes were cut into bricks KNOWING there is only a couple defective notes in a couple sheets. So instead of wasting an ENTIRE sheets of notes (When only 1 or 2 notes are faulty) they leave them and cut the bricks up.
Then they go through the bricks (By Computer) and find the faulty notes in each brick and pulled them out and placed notes from the ABC 3321000 Brick in order....
So Our brick got the very first 2 notes in the brick of replacements. BUT the next brick (AOM 5433000) has NO missing notes as none were faulty but lets say AOM 5449000 had notes 555 and 556 faulty and that was it... So you might find in place of those pair of notes from our Brick of Replacement Notes ABC 3321002 and ABC 3321003. So they are the VERY NEXT notes in sequence yet they have been placed just over 28,000 notes later in the ream and are replacing notes from different sheets in the same ream as well.
So then lets say they do a great job of printing notes and the next 2 notes have have been mis-printed are AOM 7661444 and 7661445. So they will be replaced with the NEXT 2 notes from our replacement brick IN SEQUENCE.... So the 444 and 445 notes have in their place ABC 3321004 and ABC 3321005. So now the next 2 notes have been used about 2.218 Million notes later.
These notes are REPLACING SINGLE FAULTY NOTES AS REQUIRED. This is a matter of efficiency. Why waste an entire sheet of notes when only 1 or 2 notes are bad. Just replace the notes that are faulty.
We will find that this will be the case as time goes on. British American International is a MUCH better printer then CBN because they are 6 years more advanced in technology and have refined the printing technology to the point that very few replacements are required anymore.
This means Replacements are going to be harder and harder to come by.... This has already been seen with the Single Notes replacements found.
It is a known fact that Brick Searchers account for AT MOST 10% of the bricks searched that are released. Lets take the situation then that EVERY Brick Searcher finds a brick with a particular SNR Range that have been Inserted. So this means even though a SNR Range is 1000 Notes there would be AT MOST 100 Notes found. Unfortunately this is NOT The case. USUALLY Of the 1000 Note Range there is only about 15 - 20 Notes ever found. THAT'S IT!!!!! :o
So Lets Contrast that with a Sheet Replacement Range.... 40,000 Notes (Brick Searchers find at most 10% so that is about 4000 Notes that could be found with lets say in reality about 3000 that could be discovered.
So we are dealing with 20 vs 3000 Possible Notes (150X More Notes in this example).
This is why Single Note Replacement's carry a higher premium then a standard Sheet Replacement Note. It all reflects Scarcity of the notes and the difficulty acquiring them.
As Gary has also mentioned there is a SECOND Type of Single Note Replacement that is much more scarce then regular SNR Notes. These notes are Inserted by the Canadian Bank Note Company. From what we have learned, there have been times that one printer will hire the other to help with the workload of packaging notes for delivery. What has happened is that a number of UNCUT reams were shipped to CBN from BAI to be cut and packaged.
What CBN usually does is Strap 1000 Notes together into a single brick VS BAI Who will bundle the notes in groups of 100 Notes in white paper bands and then wrap the bundles in Bricks of 1000 with another large white paper band.
So we have seen a few bricks of the new $5 and $10 Notes arrive strapped by hard plastic bound in 1000 notes bunches. And in these bricks there have been usually 2 Single Note Replacements found (One in the first half and one in the second half of the brick). They appear to be Quality Control Notes pulled (Typically seen with 2002 $5 Notes). These replacement notes were usually found between the 000 - 001 and 500 - 501 Notes.
It is believed that BAI Sent with the reams a few bricks (Or possibly bundles) of notes for CBN to use to replace notes as required while they packaged notes.
This is why we see TWO DISTINCT DIFFERENT TYPES OF SINGLE NOTE REPLACEMENTS.
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So we are dealing with 20 vs 3000 Possible Notes
So assuming that these fiqures are somewhat accurate, is not 20 possible finds (in UNC or AU) scarce enough to make these notes even more costly than what they are currently being sold for?
Being new to this, what percentage of forum members actually base their collections on SNR, sheet replacements or both. No idea how to do a poll on this site, but I personally would be interested to know!
FRIEDSQUID
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Yes, you are correct....
Of the few that are found, there is a chance not all found are in UNC Condition.
The Current prices are VERY low for SNR Replacements.
If you look in the Charlton with the 1954 and Multi-Color Series.... Take a look at the current value of the Replacement Notes that have very limited numbers....This should give you an idea where SNR Replacement will be headed someday.
Just because there are different SNR's available right now does not mean they will always be available. a Year from now good luck finding ANY of the notes that are being offered right now as the few that were available will disappear into collections for a very long time.
We must all remember that Prices also reflect Supply and Demand as well. When there is demand for notes that there is no supply on prices can rise very quickly. Even look at the current prices of the SNR's and then look at the prices of HPA Inserts???
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Dis means...er...this means that there will be a renewed effort in serching through circulated notes in hopes of finding such elusive SNRs considering statistically that the bulk of those notes will be circulating out there. I'm content or lucky to just have an insert of each prefix regardless of ranges but, IT will be interesting to see how Charleton will price these SNRs for now the market determines such bank account depleting prices.
"Ya deep fry octopoo, squidy, monkey, whadever...dis still taste like chicken mon."
Dei Gratia 8) All is irie! ;)
PD
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THE FULL MEAL DEAL IN REGARDS TO REPLACEMENT NOTES IN THE JOURNEY SERIES
What we have seen is that eventually they do use up all the notes and then the grab another "Random Brick" to be used SOLELY for Replacements. Again there have been a few times they did set 2 or 3 bricks in sequence aside....
A superb dissertation X-Saviour! I have never been very interested in modern issues myself and I know little about them. I prefer the older (simpler!) issues. I would therefore be interested to know whether the observations/conclusions in your article are based on circumstantial evidence (in conjunction with some deductive reasoning/speculation) or whether they are based on absolute known facts.
Many thanks, and keep up the good work!
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I have found replacement note errors (such that they should have been pulled).
It was in HOU. And it was fresh out of a virgin brick.
So it is possible to have a replacement error.
Secondly, I have not the inofrmation to comment on bird series ranges.
Others with more seniority/ experience may be able to explain the details of the range conclusions.
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I also have had a few HOU Replacement errors (Misaligned-digit)
The funniest thing I ever saw was a QCIN Note from a brick of HOU, the note was badly smeered and it was placed back into the bricks after..... :o ???
Makes you wonder if they even look at the notes they pull out! ???
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The last digit was shifted up probably about 40-50%. Last digit of the left side serial number I believe.
Looks like X-S found a couple too.
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Either it's not an insert or the sheet was inserted on a Monday Cool
Based on what I know, what I have learned doing bricks and LENGTHY Discussions with Gilles and Gary....
I am going with the Monday/Friday Theory!!!
I have gotten Bricks where there was a run of lets say 12 Inserts and the middle 4 were different Inserts (As it is thought the replacement sheets were replaced becuse they were defective). ???
I have seen this on 2 different occasions and talked with a few individuals who have seen the same thing.... So Yes... It IS possible!
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Is it possible and has it happened where a note is thought to be a SNR and then down the road it becomes part of a larger range?
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I have gotten Bricks where there was a run of lets say 12 Inserts and the middle 4 were different Inserts
So the 4 different inserts were they sheet replacements inserts or SNR inserts?
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They were all sheet Inserts....
If I remember correctly there were about 4 AOK 2.127xxx and then 4 AOK 1.967xxx and then 4 AOK 2.127xxx and all the AOK 2.12 were in sequence (Meaning the gap in the middle witht he AOK 1.96 lined up with the 4 missing AOK 2.12 Notes).
So Originally it looked like 12 In Sequence AOK 2.12 but then they pulled the 4 middle sheets and placed AOK 1.96 Sheets in their place.
I do not remember the details of the other occasion this happened.
Is it possible and has it happened where a note is thought to be a SNR and then down the road it becomes part of a larger range?
No, This has not happened to my knowledge. Some of the SNR's came out of Sheet ranges...
The reason is that SNR's have been around for about a year now but it has taken time to determine WHAT was going on and why they were different. Initially Gilles decided to include them as part of sheet ranges until further research could be done. This was a safety measure... If you look at the lists there are a few ranges of SNR in the HNN Prefix... :o
What we must all remember is that it takes time to research and also wait for Independent people to come forward to verify a claim before a preliminary range can be determined.
The reason there has been a greater understanding of SNR's and about the printers sharing the workload (And has been for almost 20 years!!!) is because of an individual (Whom I am not at liberty to disclose) has revealed this information. This individual is from the other side of the fence on these matters and was directly involved. Consider this part of our "Tid-bit of information" we have been yearning for. ;)
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Is it possible and has it happened where a note is thought to be a SNR and then down the road it becomes part of a larger range?
To straighten this out -- X_S, a small correction-- Suppose I find SNR 1234xxx range. It gets confirmed with findings. Therfore 1000 note range.
And then next week I find 1235xxx, and again it gets confiremd by other findings.
The range has been expanded into 2000.
Some new finds WILL bridge gaps between ranges, perhaps creating ranges of 3000 or 4000, maybe even more (of course we do not know for sure). Thus ranges can be absorbed into larger ranges. (Provided they are all SNR ranges).
The point to remember though, is that the relative numbers being found is still quite small.
There is a case with the $20s somewhere where a small SNR range is adjacent to the sheet range. They are listed as separate entries, due to the different nature of the note placement.
Some of the SNRs came from sheet ranges
This is a contradiction. X_S, please PM me with details.
However, I do acknowledge that BoC can throw us for a loop every now and again.
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Is it possible and has it happened where a note is thought to be a SNR and then down the road it becomes part of a larger range?
I am sorry... I must have been half asleep when I typed that! It was not what I wanted to say.... :-[
What I meant to say is originally a few of the SNR Ranges were grouped into one huge range with sheet Inserts until there were SEVERAL confirmations that the notes in the Suspected SNR range were SNR Notes.
I agree with Huds.... There will always be slight shifts in ranges and/or expansion as new finds are made. It seems to take about a year to a year and a half for ranges to really settle down.
The point to remember though, is that the relative numbers being found is still quite small.
This is a VERY Important point to remember. This goes back to my first post.... Even if a range is 2000 - 3000 notes it is likely that only 10 - 15 notes might have been found in the additional extension of the range.
Some of the SNRs came from sheet ranges
Sorry again... This is not what I was aiming to say.... The first part of the post covers this. (I should not type when I am tired!!! ;))
I am just stating what people have noticed... A few of the SNR Ranges were ORIGINALLY part of a very large Sheet range until further proof was discovered to be 100% Sure that they were ALL SNR Notes in the suspected range.
I spoke to Gilles in great depth about this before and he is a VERY Cautious man. He will not publish anything until he is 110% Sure it is correct. He decided to place the few SNR Finds over the last year or so into the appropriate sheet ranges until he could say with certainty the the SNR's are their own range. A perfect axample of this was an AOK range I believe.
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There is a case with the $20s somewhere where a small SNR range is adjacent to the sheet range. They are listed as separate entries, due to the different nature of the note placement.
The question I have is that I found a $20 ALK prefix SNR(1K) in the range (9922000-9923000) and also found a $20 ALK prefix sheet replacement in the range 80 K (9840000-9920000). Is there a chance that this range could be combined or is that highly unlikely? If this is the case, or can be possible when notes are first being found, you could be paying big bucks for a SNR that turns out to be a sheet replacement? Or am I not understanding this stiil ???
FRIEDSQUID
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Hey Fried Squid,
Good question.
No...They will not become Sheet Replacements. Due to the nature of how SNR Replacements are found it can be determined RIGHT AWAY that they are SNR's
BUT....
SNR's have the 1/40th chance of being mistaken as Sheet Inserts (As it has happened where a few SNR's are found in the same plate numbers as the bricks they are in.... But as another discovery is made and those notes match the plates of the other Possible SNR find it starts to become clear.... This is why some of the ranges take more time to confirm then others.
So if anything (And it also has happened) you might have bought a Sheet Insert and will later be discovered it was actually an SNR. This can happen with the few individuals who sell notes immediately after finding them without waiting to see what happens with them. Again this happened with a couple AOK SNR Ranges as the Huge Sheet Range got split up after more discoveries were made. :)
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Sigh: I sold SNR's as sheet replacements to some lucky people....
Well, win some, lose some. :P
At least I have some happy buyers :)
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Yes, And I was on the receiving end of this... I only found out recently when I went over all my Replacements and realized I had a couple SNR's that I had bought as Sheet Replacements... :o
Makes ya feel all warm and fuzzy! 8)
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A superb dissertation X-Saviour! I have never been very interested in modern issues myself and I know little about them. I prefer the older (simpler!) issues. I would therefore be interested to know whether the observations/conclusions in your article are based on circumstantial evidence (in conjunction with some deductive reasoning/speculation) or whether they are based on absolute known facts.
Many thanks, and keep up the good work!
Ottawa, sorry about the delay in responding to your question. We are basing this information on some known facts AND a process of Logic (Hudson's article was able to prove this based on Logic built on Logic).
I am writing a detailed article that is also very easy to read outlining Journey Series Notes and specifically 2006 $5 Notes including Sheet and Single Note Replacements. It will be very informative. ;)