Macklem-Carney $5 HAE-HAL

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It has been over 1 year since the $5 polymer Frontiers series notes have been issued.  Paper $5 notes of the Journey series have never been officially withdrawn and some continue to circulate, though it is clear that they are being gradually replaced by the new polymer notes in circulation, meaning paper notes are becoming less numerous and less frequently encountered.

Reports of Journey $5 notes are tailing off, so I think it is an appropriate time to look at the data for Macklem-Carney $5 notes, prefixes HAE-HAL.

Macklem-Carney $5 notes have been reported in small numbers compared to the earlier Jenkins-Carney notes.  Numbering practices for Macklem-Carney $5 notes are the same as before, meaning sheets of 45/on are skip-numbered by 8,000, creating reams of 360,000 notes (except in the range 9720000-9989999 where the skip interval is 6,000).

The small number of notes recorded in the SNDB points to the possibility that notes of prefixes HAE-HAL were never fully issued.  One way to examine the data is to look for the biggest gaps in numbering.  The biggest gap found was between the highest recorded HAK note (HAK 8907849) and the lowest HAL note (HAL 0854218).  This represents a gap of 1,946,368 notes.

Since most reams of Macklem-Carney notes are 360,000 notes in size, any gap of 720,000 notes or more represents "missing reams" according to the data.  At least one recorded note is needed per ream as evidence to show that a ream existed and was at least partially issued.  Here is a list of the biggest gaps found:
GAP           from              to
1,946,368   HAK 8907849   HAL 0854218   
1,750,278   HAJ 2108885   HAJ 3859164
1,566,259   HAJ 4516090   HAJ 6082350   
1,324,145   HAH 8376559   HAH 9700705
1,295,430   HAF 2349117   HAF 3644548   
1,097,749   HAJ 8709842   HAJ 9807592
1,076,722   HAL 1935522   HAL 3012245   
1,075,937   HAJ 6933923   HAJ 8009861
  994,856    HAK 0719803   HAK 1714660   
  985,143    HAH 5284864   HAH 6270008
  935,456    HAF 1413660   HAF 2349117   
  920,146    HAH 6666511   HAH 7586658
  912,489    HAK 5346301   HAK 6258791   
  889,404    HAK 3810392   HAK 4699797
  735,492    HAH 3784804   HAH 4520297 

From this list, it is clear that prefixes HAH, HAJ, and HAK had the most large gaps in recorded numbers.  I found 12 missing reams for both HAJ and HAK, and 10 missing reams for HAH.  Prefixes HAF and HAL had 7 missing reams each.  Prefix HAG had only 1 missing ream, and this corroborates the data that HAG is the most common prefix of the group.  Prefix HAK is also seen to be one of the more common prefixes, but the fact that it tied for the most missing reams (12 reams representing 4,320,000 notes out of a possible total of 10,000,000) points to the fact that most of the notes recorded tend to be clustered.  A look at the data shows that more than half of the 127 HAK notes recorded have serial numbers under 0720000, meaning the first 2 reams of this prefix have more notes in the database than the next 26 reams combined.  Even prefix HAL, thought to be the scarcest prefix, has a better spread of data, meaning the numbers recorded are not as clustered.  The apparent rarity of prefix HAL may be due to most of the data of this prefix being recorded early, meaning the prefix was circulated the earliest and slipped through circulation without much attention or interest.  So even if more HAL notes got out, fewer were saved.

I will attempt to update the CPM Wiki with data collected from the SNDB soon.

Thanks for the great article very interesting read

More detailed information about serial number ranges for each Macklem-Carney prefix is now available in the CPM Wiki at this address:

http://wiki.cdnpapermoney.com/index.php?title=Mega-Sequences_BC-67c_2011_$5_Macklem-Carney

Each prefix is given its own chart.  Serial number ranges (i.e., reams) where no notes have been recorded in the SNDB are labelled as "Unknown".  Without any notes known in a serial number range, there is no way to say if any notes in that range were ever issued.  They may have been printed and never issued.

This is fantastic analysis. Thank you for sharing it.

Would it be appropriate to come to the conclusion that the gaps recorded are most likely ranges where notes were never printed?

Unless such large numbers were put into circulation in areas which are not covered by those entering into the SNDB , those selling on e-bay, dealers selling these notes i.e. in short anywhere such notes can be publicly examined, it is hard to fathom that they would not be reported.

Would it be appropriate to come to the conclusion that the gaps recorded are most likely ranges where notes were never printed?

It is impossible to make definitive conclusions based on a lack of evidence (i.e., data).

There are three possibilities where gaps occur:
1) The notes were never printed;
2) The notes were printed but never issued;
3) The notes were printed and issued but none were recorded.

In the case of 2011 Journey $5 notes, it is hard to fathom that the gaps are the result of unprinted notes.  For this possibility to be realistic, I tend to look for abnormal numbering practices, like skip-numbering that is unusual and/or reams starting and ending at unusual places in the numbering.  I have found no such abnormalities.  CBN, which printed prefixes HAE-HAL, made it a habit to number every prefix in the same way, and there is no evidence that they did anything different for these prefixes.

Unless such large numbers were put into circulation in areas which are not covered by those entering into the SNDB , those selling on e-bay, dealers selling these notes i.e. in short anywhere such notes can be publicly examined, it is hard to fathom that they would not be reported.

I agree.  However, given that there are 8,000 sheets (360,000 notes or 360 "bricks") per ream, it is possible for some reams to be released only partially, meaning a few bricks out of 360 made it into circulation while the remainder remained "in the safe".  And even among the bricks that get issued, meaning put into the distribution system, not all  bricks are opened and put into use.  So there are many ways notes can be intended to circulate but never end up in circulation, thus ending up back at the Bank of Canada for destruction.  It is possible that only a small percentage of notes "in circulation" are accessible at any time.  What that percentage is at any given time is anyone's guess.