Question for those that received Gilles November Newsletter

News: Welcome to the Canadian Paper Money Forum.

I just received Gilles current newsletter, and as always appreciate what it has to offer.  I have one concern that I was wondering if anyone can shed some light on by emailing or sending me a pm since I assume posting it would not be a thing some members would want to happen.
The statement was made

"The market for paper money has been down in the last 6-9 months........
A number of reasons can explain that.......some guys who were in just to make a fast buck and now,have left or are leaving.........."

Does this have to do with any particular items like replacements (inserts)...or am I just paranoid"

Any information, not projecture is appreciated.

FRIEDSQUID

I have not been in this hobby long enough to try and answer this question but I keep wondering if the time of year reflects on the buying and selling aspects of the hobby. Does the interest rise in the winter when people have more time to spend indoors and on the computer searching and bidding. I know a couple people that all but shut there collection off from May til October due to the fact the summer keeps them so busy they don't have time. Is this a yearly occurance for this slow time or is the last few months tottaly off the cuf and is just singled out to this year specific?? Personally I would expect the prices to go on the rise very soon for a couple of reasons. First would be that the summer is over and people have more time. Second is that the Christmas season is just around the corner and there is always extra cash it seems at this time of year and as well as people buying for gifts.. Again due to the very short time I have been collecting I have not had the chance to see the demand float up and down for past years.         


          Jeff

And is it too late to send them a card?

It is never to late to send a card, and I am more than happy to accept cards (with cash included inside) so that I could purchase a beautiful, thoughtful, and deserving gift.  EMT's, certified cheques, money orders, bank drafts, and even US dollars accepted.

You're leaving us??!

No. I am just accepting cards with cash so that the real person(s) leaving will have to contact me if they want their cards and gift

Lol... maybe because I am not buying thousands of radars anymore lol....   

Huds, you could simply flooding the radar market but that shouldn't effect other areas thought I find myself racking up such a bill that I can't buy much else for the next few weeks. Meanwhile Raven is overwhelmed with the sudden bounty of evil notes. Though she is very touched by the attention after an unexpected debacle around a misguided posting that wroght a sudden rebuke, And thats why she's not talkative lately. Such an emotional lady and I thought I had thinking problems. I digress, so for confidential reasons I won't delve into this any further.
Well back to the orignal issue, Lately I notice winning bids on things I had no business winning. Less buyers perhaps? Or are they all busy paying for fixing, patching, and renovating thier homes like I am?  Banks 1 vs Consumer -1.

Debt coming up to me earballs mon,
PD

Debt coming up to me earballs mon,

Do like I do, get to higher ground and debt can build up even more.
Got to go and buy more tar for the roof

I know da bank already dos dat by sending me mor credit cards and say "Hey mon, you pay yo bills very good, you qualify to have mor debt, tank you for yo business mon." 
If I stack all my cards and stand on dem, I can have mor debt up to my earballs again.

Another thread posed the question: "are eBay sales down?"

Yes they are. The numbers have dropped below a 1000 sales in any given week (most of the time).

It is true that the volume of sales goes in high and low cycles.  I do believe that the high Can dollar (and weak US economy) has curbed American (and perhaps international) appetite for Canadian paper.  I think less international interest means less speculation, and less inflated prices for the rarer notes.  The common notes just keep dropping as everyone and their cousin Larry puts regular notes up for sale.  When the US economy is this weak -- it makes a lot of people nervous and less willing to invest in things like Cdn paper.

I have sold some replacements recently and received less than what I paid for them.  With eBay fees-- and even realizing small profit on other notes-- it really hurts to receive less than what was paid for a note a few years ago.  It means I just break even.  I'm sure I'm not the only one.  Naturally, this discourages one from selling more stuff (what's the point of selling if one is just going to break even?)  I noticed I did worse on older notes than newer notes!  That was a real surprise.

Sometimes when eBay sales volumes drop...this presents opportunity to sell rarer notes since one doesn't see certain notes come up that often, and there's less chaffe to sift through.  I have not read the newsletter yet, but I do believe that statement to be true.

Friedsquid: IMO you are probably ok with most replacements however I've noticed many prefixes have gone soft.  I think this is partly due to the arrival of these so called SNR.  Collectors are naturally paying close attention to what replacements are the tough small ranges.  SNR's and small ranges are still being snapped up and see high demand. They seem to be clobbering the more common large range replacements.  Radars also seem to be plentiful (and soft) yet many of the higher grades retain their value (or are on the increase).

A very good posting, walk, I enjoyed it.

- Thanks R_P

I always find your postings entertaining and enlightening.  I was about to respond to the post on "Hoarding of rare notes" and you took the words right out my keyboard! Thanks (saves me from typing!) Its good to note that not every collector is forthcoming with info -- and that this reluctance to divulge is not always motivated by profit. I don't believe the concept of "hoarding" is typically applied to any single collector even though we do read about one particular "hoard" of coins/notes being discovered.  When in the context of this recent post-- I suspect many collectors have been holding onto lost prefixes and other scarce notes simply waiting to see what the market will bear.  As you inferred -- it is unlikely that the trickle of notes that reach market will ever drastically alter the current Charlton projections (which traditionally lag far behind demand).

I had no trouble finding a buyer for my Bank of Montreal 1914 $5 note in EF at 75% over book

I don't think this is so very surprising since we just don't see that many higher grade Chartered notes reach market.  This is especially true if we compare the availability of rare chartered notes to the availability of rare BOC notes.  I guess I was wrong in snubbing my nose at these scarce pieces!

75% over book.  Maybe I should have held out for more?? 

- I think most would agree that you did very well!  The only time I can ever come close to that is on the very rare occassions that I've been able to snap up the odd change-over --incorrectly listed as a regular prefix.  My own personal finds are exceptionally unrewarding.