Good to be back...and need your advice!

News: Welcome to the Canadian Paper Money Forum.

Hi everyone.

I've been a member of the forums for some time (years) however this is my first post in a long time.  That doesn't mean the hobby ever left me, it's just cyclical you know, and what can I say, I'm nearing the peak again!  :-)

I'm back because I am in need of advice.

I'm considering the purchase of two notes.  Given the limited resources I have, I'd like to only purchase just one.  Both are superb notes worthy of any collection.

Before I tell you what the two notes are you should know that although I do collect for the love of the hobby, the investment piece of the hobby is important to me too.  I don't want to invest in a note that will likely lose value over time, but gain value.  So what I'm trying to say is, I'd like to pick the note that is likely
a) fairly valued at the price the dealer wants for the note and
b) likely to appreciate over time
and finally c) likely to appreciate at a rate greater than the appreciation rate of the "typical" note.  Don't get me wrong, I know the market.  Paper money has its ups AND downs...but even an out-performer in a down market would be preferred.

Okay, on to the notes:

#1 - BC-52bA Crow-Bouey $100 AJX
#2 - BC-45bA $1 1967 Prefix *L/O

I've examined both notes very closely and although not graded by a 3rd party, I can say with reasonable confidence that #1 (the $100) is UNC and #2 (the $1) is at least UNC with a case to be made for ChoiceUNC (it's a real beauty, good centering, contrast, colour, etc).

The dealer wants $300 for the $100 note and $190 for the $1 note.  I'd say there is some leeway on the $1 but not on the $100.

Advice, opinions on whether the notes are fairly priced in the market currently, and any comments welcome.

And Mr. Dealer if you're out there, well feel free to comment too!  ;-)

Good to be back.

koremore

Welcom back.

If I had to choose from one of the two notes to put into my collection, I would go with the *L/O notes. The AJX is very popular with the L-B sig, but selling them with C-B is tougher.

Over the past few years in auction *L/O notes in UNC have sold in the $120 range.

This is only an opinion, so please do your research to make the choice that is best for you and your collection.

If it’s just a toss up and your goal is for a note to appreciate in value take a look at past numbers, If you look at the

#1 - BC-52bA Crow-Bouey $100 AJX

This notes historical average price in Unc is $345 and currently books at $300 which on a valuation basis allows margin for error. It also hasn’t booked under $300 since 1996, it’s been a slow persistent painful decline for this one. And another consideration is the lack of interest in the high denomination notes.

#2 - BC-45bA $1 1967 Prefix *L/O

This notes historical average price in Unc is $130 and currently books at $150, not as appealing sickly on a valuation basis. At best this note peaked in 2007 at $300, that works out to just a good of a market performance as U.S Banks but with such a massive drop this makes it less risky, but not riskless.

FWIW,
MG

Here is my opinion/advice on the two notes you wish to obtain which you would prefer to be:

a) fairly valued at the price the dealer wants for the note and
b) likely to appreciate over time
and finally c) likely to appreciate at a rate greater than the appreciation rate of the "typical" note.

First you want to pay a price that is "fairly valued at the price the dealer wants for the note" which could easily translate into you paying a much higher price for the note & therefore requiring you to hold onto the note for 5-10 years before you break even or see appreciation of the two notes you're interested in. Don't forget that most dealers will pay you the absolute lowest price he/she can for any of your notes (even your most prized notes!) and sell them for the absolute highest possible price he/she can get. That is what they do in order to make it worth their time.

The second problem (if you wish for criteria c)) is that you're focussing on two difficult notes.  It is true that high grade replacements generally appreciate more then your "typical note" BUT one of your choices is a high denomination ($100) and the other *L/O $1.00 from the rather less popular 1967 series. 

One hundred dollar notes have become rather difficult to sell because a) they have high listing fees online b) less long-term collectors collect them and c) you frequently see almost all the series crop up or turn up in hordes from people's safety deposit boxes.  Higher denominations, if collected at all, should be collected only in high grades (unless they have spectacular errors, numbers, rare signatures, etc). 

From my own experience, I started collecting back in the 70's and I could not afford higher denominations until I went back into it later (but avoided them) and then decided to splurge on a few about ten years ago.  I only bought a few but regretted it because they were so very hard to sell and I only broke even when I sold them (the notes being high grade replacements or mid-higher graded Devils/1937).  I also bought a few 67 replacements which have stayed the same or might even fetch lower prices then what I paid for them in the current market (forget BV).     

The *L/O would definitely be the note to consider because it is a lower denomination and will be easier to sell down the road.  The 1967 really haven't appreciated like some other series so you would be wise to try to get as much of that "leeway" you possibly can if you truly want to break even or make a profit in 5 years time.