Hoarding

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I've been putting away many notes (all UNC pulled from bricks of bills) away in my bank safety deposit box in hopes of them increasing in value (hopefully by alot ), and was wondering if anyone has been doing the same? I have also put away many special notes including several bundles of confirmed inserts and some change over year notes. In addition, I have put away many notes from different prefixes (knowing that these notes will increase the least and in some cases almost nothing). I'm trying to figure out how many notes are being put away (especially inserts) by fellow collectors. In my opinion due to the changeover to inserts far less of these notes are being kept, since there are very little "brick hunters". Any views on this topic of hoarding and any brick hunters in the audience?

 thanks for your feedback

oli

I`m not a brick hunter but  i`m try to make my collection big and better. In one sence if you don`t collect the newest notes before they go up in value you will have to pay top dollar later, and then all you want to do is kick your self  for not at least collecting a few of them when you had the chance. The only thing is to hoard the right ones.



 harwil4u2

The "right ones" is exactly right. And actually, there are quite a number of serious brick searchers accross the country.   8-)
Anyway, think of it this way, with opportunity cost.  
Suppose you put away a $100 for 3 years, and you then want to sell it, and the book value says $125 (because it is common).  Then you have to take the time and sell it, and incurr costs, and who knows if you will get the top book price. Second, in those 3 years, you have forgone compound interest, or lets say 3% (very conservative).  What that means is that in 3 years, your $100 of 2006 has risen to
103
106.90
109.27 in 2009 dollars.  So if you sell it for actually $125 in 2009, and then you subtract 109.27, your only profit was $15.73.
The question:  was it worth the hassle?

The answer?
If you are collecting because you enjoy collecting, then of course it is!
If you are trying to make money, there are some much better ways to spend the time on.  More scarce notes, or rare older ones etc... there are a ton of things that would be better.

As said- it is all about WHICH ones. Being here on this forum really wil help put you "in the know" in many areas - alot earlier than those who wait until the catalogue is out.  I still find though that the catalogue is irreplaceable. I keep it with me wherever I go.  I do alot of reading in it at red lights actually, whilst I am on the road.  

But I digress- the message- make sure you are saving the right ones.  8-)

I like your math. You cannot deduct what you could have made had you spend the money in a different fashion than you did.  Accounting types might also agree with what I said.

Anyway, is it a good idea to hoard certain notes (or coins)? As we cannot determine at the start what will be scarce and what will increase in value, if you get lucky, yes it is a good way to tuck away some scarce notes in the future.

Many collections are really hoards. They often contain rolls of 1960's cents, bundles of 1967 no serial number notes. Often no reason, but the hoarder thought it was a neat thing to do and tuck some away.

At some stage, as this is expensive to do, notes that are duds should be spent.

I wish I knew for sure what was going up. I would say little, and tuck it away.

Rick

Suppose you put away a $100 for 3 years, and you then want to sell it, and the book value says $125 (because it is common).  Then you have to take the time and sell it, and incurr costs, and who knows if you will get the top book price. Second, in those 3 years, you have forgone compound interest, or lets say 3% (very conservative).  What that means is that in 3 years, your $100 of 2006 has risen to
103
106.90
109.27 in 2009 dollars.  So if you sell it for actually $125 in 2009, and then you subtract 109.27, your only profit was $15.73.

You are right, but you forgot to factor in inflation!

A hoard of 30 UNC 1954 Beattie-Rasminsky $1000 notes would have cost $30,000 to stash away in 1970, and would be worth $60,000 now.  But 30,000 1970 dollars is still a lot more than 60,000 2006 dollars.  In 1970, $30,000 would have bought a house in Vancouver, which would be worth about $600,000 today!

IMO if you are going to hoard something for the purpose of return on investment, it's better to concentrate on specialty notes (radars, etc).  The collector value of regular notes will go up over time, but not likely surpassing the inflation rate.

I agree with all the points made, especially Hudson's interesting and well thought out calculations. But you must also consider the point made by rscoins, where the duds should be spent. Now if you combine both of these methods you will be set, both with a fun hobby / nice collection and with an investment. As for the whole inflation thing, the part where the duds should be spent will cover that up (since the common notes are balanced with the inflation rates). Though if the right ones are saved, year and signature changeovers, inserts as well as short prefixes you should make a tight little profit. In addition, as an investor, it is important to have other avenues of revenue. These ranging from mutual funds to stocks to fixed incomes, etc (Excluding GIC since they return about 1.5-3.5% therefore barely covering inflation).

In conclusion, it is best to enjoy yourself through collecting notes, spend the duds, keeping the studs, investing in other avenues (if appropriate) and sell off the surpluses for a little extra pocket cash