Can someone help me catch up a bit please

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I've been away from posting at this forum and collecting for 2-3 years due to death, divorce and all around hysteria . I've just been reviewing a spreadsheet listing of my notes as they are in SDB and I had them values listed from the 2008 book. I recently picked up the 09 and 10 books to have a look at whats been going on. I collect mostly Dominion, 35,37 and Devil Face. I noticed there were some decent value increases from 08 to 09 and then pretty much flat from 09 to 10. The flat spell in 09 to 10 doesn't surprise me as the recession was in full swing

With 11 book due out in a few months I'm seeking some general opinion what is happening right now in the market in my area of collecting. Are the prices in the 10 book still largely accurate or....... I'm well aware common notes and mid-low grade stuff doesn't usually go for book and quite frankly a lot of stuff doesn't. Unless you have a 37 thousand ( which I do ) then you might even get more. The economy seems to be back on track ( in Canada anyways ) the stock market is nearing record high again and real estate is rocking. There is a lot of money floating around out there

I would have to respectful disagreed in regards to the real estate market rocking. I see on a daily basis peoples balance sheets and they are mostly in terrible shape. It's no secret that Canadians have never held so much debt in our countries history and even surpassing the indebtedness levels of Americans before their market collapsed. Mortgage rates jumped a good 9% this week alone. Further more the recent changes implemented by the government regarding amortizations no longer going beyond 30 years is very negative for the market further compound with home owners now being capped at a 85% (LTV) loan to value when wanting to refinance their property to pay off debts and free up cash flow. I also believe the bond market is currently experiencing a “bubble” after a 30-year bull run and inflation is a huge risk. The biggest misconception in regards to buying real estate is the generally excepted opinion that the best time to buy is when rates are low, unfortunately this is the absolute worst time to buy and many may in the near future realize why. If you buy when rates are high you will pay less then if you buy when rates are low. The problem is the extra balance on your mortgage that will still be waiting for you when rates move up which is a double negative. My opinion is that Canadians believe we are different then the rest of the world when it comes to real estate values but I'm very skeptical. What I'm leading to is that the average person will see an increasing squeeze on their disposable income due to higher interest costs which are inevitable. If you happen to follow Mark Carney you will be well aware that he has been cautioning Canadians not to expect or count on low rates in the future to service their debts. If people continue seeing their disposable cash shrink this will continue to have a negative impact on bank note values overall.

I have spent a considerable amount of time analyzing catalogue values and market values and I believe the prices listed in the last 2 catalogues to be grossly over optimistic and increasingly disconnected from the true realities of the market. The other big negative regarding the collecting community is the disproportionate amount of “Older Collectors” to “Younger Collectors” If the hobby doesn't attract a large amount of “Younger Collectors” in the next decade the market could be seriously damaged when supply overwhelms demand.

But again, what do I know.
MG

I would have to respectful disagreed in regards to the real estate market rocking. I see on a daily basis peoples balance sheets and they are mostly in terrible shape

I would agree with this statement 100%...I have been involved in real estate transactions since 1980 and if you consider the real estate market rocking I would love to know where you live...there are always those small pockets in some areas that seem to thrive no matter how poor the market is, but the reality is that house prices are not going upwards at this time. As mortgage guy mentioned financing is tougher to get, amortization periods have been shortened, and personal debt is growing....it is not as easy as it use to be for the average Joe to get into a home as it use to be...once it was sign your name here...don't worry...and now checking into financial background is so deep in cases that once eligible buyers are treated as welfare cases....anyways I know this is a papermoney forum...so I will just 

Yes, I also concur with mortgageguy's thoughts. 

Thanks for your response MGuy. Judging from your handle I'd say your likely involved with the real estate market. I may be living in my own world. I'm middle aged and owned my own home for 20 years and have been very dilligent paying down my debt on it and not accumulating other debt....Squid......I live in the east Greater Toronto Area and am mildly in tune with whats happening in Central Toronto. During the recession the RE market dropped about 15% in my area and has recovered about 10% of that drop based on todays values. There is very little for sale in my neighbourhood and what there is, is being priced like the remaining 5% will be made up soon...but RE is more volatile than previous history for sure. The condo market is driving the bus. But I can see that collapsing in the next 12-24 months as thousands of units come on board. As for the 9% jump in rates.... 9% of not much is not much. It's not like rates are 10% and they jumped a full point. Your talking a third of a point. My first mort was 12.5% so to me things still seem like a crazy bargain. Perhaps Toronto is an anomoly. I recently read an article about a house in the Yonge Lawrence area that was listed at 995,000, got 100 viewings and sold for 1.162M. And it was nothing special. Could be an isolated case............. Thanks for your opinions those that ave posted. I hope for more input. MG your comments were pretty bearish, but they were your honest opinions and I appreciate them. I'm somewhat more bullish about the future but I do hear you. Soaring food costs, energy prices could lead to inflation and increased rates.. so we will see

My first mortgage was 19%

The Vancouver market sees multiple bids on many properties currently.The condo market is the driving force at the moment.

Paper money will help you with a down payment in 2 years or less!

Welcome back Buxvet,

When I started work in Milton 8 years ago there were almost no houses along Derry.  Now you wouldn't even recognize this city.  Ditto for Burlington along Dundas (highway 5).  Maybe real estate is slowing but I still see them slapping up new condos, houses & commercial buildings in a matter of weeks, so that I don't even recognize where I am half the time in the GTA (& that ain't due to Alzheimer's- yet!) 

I believe Canada's economy has proven to be far more resilient then most would expect, esp considering what's happened in the US. 

the stock market is nearing record high again and real estate is rocking. There is a lot of money floating around out there

I hear what you're saying but I also have to agree with MG in that the book does seem to be overly optimistic.  And yet you see a majority of "buy it now" and high 1st bid listings on the on-line auction sites as if sellers don't really care whether their notes sell or not.  I think what's happened is that everyone is being more cautious as to what type of note they buy.  Most collectors will only part money if they think everyone else will want that note and it's a good investment, rather than to just collect a certain variety of note.  I believe the prefix hunters, any type of radar seeker, and others who randomly expand their collections- are few & far between.  Collectors are hunkering down and becoming specialists. 

While the market does seem ponderously slow, I have to agree with 2-invallarta, that we will probably see things pick up strongly (barring no new natural disasters in one of G-5 economies).  You've always collected the most "desirable" notes (like the "37 Ozzies") so I'm sure you'll have no trouble with a down-payment on a new downtown condo if you sell some of these in the next 2 yrs! LOL     After all, there are still plenty of specialists out there who will want the higher grade difficult note to find.

Anyway- back to reality- I also happen to agree with MG in that we need to see an influx of new collectors of paper money.  Perhaps our upcoming switch to polymer will entice some new blood into the fold?  We'll see...

Anyway- again welcome back!

If you want good financial advice, you have to pay for it.  Even then, it's not a guaranteed success.  But the stuff you get for free... make sure you get a big grain of salt to go with it.

If you want good financial advice, you have to pay for it.  Even then, it's not a guaranteed success.  But the stuff you get for free... make sure you get a big grain of salt to go with it.

I don't want to generalize but I disagree to a point when you say "If you want good financial advice, you have to pay for it"....In most cases , you still have to pay for bad financial advice...
I think it funny when I talk to so many people that are financial advisors that can't even manage their own personal financial affairs...In many cases I would let Dear Abby make my financial decisions than trust some of these so called "Financial advisors"
I always believed that it is easy to give advice when it is not your own money you are dealing with....and either way...win or lose ....most financial advisors make some dough either way...
I think people should start to learn what works for them and try to do some research before they jump head first into anything...anyways I know 

Thanks for the welcome backs twoin, walkto.
I've missed being involved and the discussions at the forums and collecting in general
I must say I was pretty surprised that give the landscape that there was
not a big retrenchment in the 2010 book prices, but maybe thats why people
say they seem overly optimistic.

You know my penchant for the " Ozzies " As far as the 37's go thats what I collected mostly. I could never understand why the 50 dollar Osbourne has not done better as they are largely non-existent in any grade but I have put two nice ones away hoping that it will come around, but I digress

I've collected off and on since the mid-80's and have done so because " it's fun " And you can have a hobby that has the possibility to be profitable that adds to the allure and enjoyment. It's beats hoarding collectible spoons or something

I dumped my collection in 1990 when I bought my first house to assist with paying down the mortgage. I had notes I'll never replace unless I win the lottery. I mean I'll never buy a 35 and 37 thousand in AU for less than 2K ever again

The market for anything, real estate, stocks, paper money or whatever...........always overshoots the highs and lows. When things are great people get stupid and think it will never end and when things sour a bit everyone pushes the panic button

I don't want to generalize but I disagree to a point when you say "If you want good financial advice, you have to pay for it"....In most cases , you still have to pay for bad financial advice...

True.Very true.
A few examples.Warren Buffett states he has no use for gold or silver in his pf.Yet gold is up at record highs,silver is up 40% in the last 2 months alone,we will not even disuss silvers moves the last 18 months.
After the dotbomb bubble of 99/2000,many have still not recovered.All because of some financial "whiz" rec'ing internet startups to the very end.
Look at the Mutual Fund Fiasco as another example of financial planning by the experts,lol.

NO ONE AND I MEAN NO ONE cares for YOUR money like you do.You must do your own due diligence.Financial advisors,like car salesman, are motivated to sell a product.

Is that not what we preach in the bank note world?Get educated,know how to grade,get a Charlton,ect.

Even more so your financial future.NEVER trust anyone with your money.
One exception is you have millions to invest.Then the commish motivation for your advisor to 'take care of you' kicks in.
But not always.
Ask the Bernie Madoff victims.

The other big negative regarding the collecting community is the disproportionate amount of “Older Collectors” to “Younger Collectors” If the hobby doesn't attract a large amount of “Younger Collectors” in the next decade the market could be seriously damaged when supply overwhelms demand.

Yes, but realistically, when will this ever not be true?  The paper money market has just come off its most productive decade ever with prices rising almost across the board, and yet the message is still the same.  Collecting is like population demographics, it's always going to rely on fresh blood to renew itself, or it has to find new collectors outside of the borders.

The book value on notes have tanked look at the trade section any high end notes (if you want to sell them ) I would say book minus 20 % min.. up to 30 -40 % nobody is spending money on investments, if they do not have any money. I would also add IMO the guy who puts out the book only increases notes he has, some rare notes have hardly moved in price even thou there is none out there but others sky rocket in the book even thou you can find them any day of the week