Macklem-Carney $5 and 410 notes

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I've been looking for the Macklem-Carney 5$ notes for over a year now. On Saturday, I bought two from a coin dealer in the Montreal area. I paid 10$ each, which is way better than the last ebay auctions I've seen recently. They both have the HAK prefix.

What could be the explanation for M/C $5 being seen in circulation 12-18 months ago, but little since? Are there enough of us collectors who simply snatched them up from circulation at that time to account for their relative scarcity today?

I still believe that since paper currency does not go bad and does not perish like food... the FIFO rule does not apply
If pallets containing HA* notes where brought to a depot and were distributed, it is very possible that when new pallets of notes came in, the old pallets are pushed to the back or blocked by the new ones and these new notes will be distributed..
Should these new notes get distributed before more new notes arrive the HA* notes will again appear, otherwise they will once again remain at the back...
It is not uncommon when brick searching to get older prefixes that we literally saw years back...in fact about 2 months ago I got a BTG brick.....now how long has that prefix been out ....
I think like any other product in a warehouse, some things just get pushed into a corner and don't reappear until the item is needed....might even explain why the occasional brick you get is actually in dirty/dusty/torn bags that were probably run over by a tow motor, or used as a football during the Friday night crews coffee break  

I have a gem pair of HAK in my collection and one HAL (in about EF shape) that I got in change almost a year ago.  The last one to cross my hands was a heavily beat up HAJ, with tape, a few weeks ago.

They ain't numerous.

If pallets containing HA* notes where brought to a depot and were distributed, it is very possible that when new pallets of notes came in, the old pallets are pushed to the back or blocked by the new ones and these new notes will be distributed..
Should these new notes get distributed before more new notes arrive the HA* notes will again appear, otherwise they will once again remain at the back...

The only problem with this argument is that one would expect the older 2010 notes to get buried (push to the back) and the 2011 notes to be distributed.  It is possible this could have happened as we saw a very strange sporadic release of 2010 prefixes after a very tiny release of 2011, but it still doesn't explain why there still remains the lion's share of 2011 notes yet to be released.  It doesn't really make sense that the 2011 notes would get pushed to the back or they would be held back unless someone directed  distributors to do so.   It is as if bundles (100's) of 2011 HA* were released rather than blocks (1000's).

I've long thought that more 2011 HA* M/C notes would soon appear.  I would have thought they would have made their 2nd appearance by now.   I find it strange that they're taking so long to be released & wonder if & when they do-- will there be some prefixes more scarce than others? Will they release them along with the polymers? I'm sure I'm not the only one speculating on this...   

I'm sure I'm not the only one speculating on this...   

And I'm sure you're sure.    In fact, I think the knowledge about Macklem-Carney $5 notes is becoming fairly widespread, and as a consequence, they are going to be part of a self-fulfilling prophecy.  What I mean by this is that they will seem scarce because people are holding onto them and not reporting them, and this will continue for some time.  The SNDB will reflect the apparent scarcity, and no doubt, the data will then be used as proof that the notes are scarce (by a few unscrupulous individuals) , even though the data is just a reflection of what people report.

My mother always said "if you don't have something nice to say about somebody don't say anything at all".

Hi ! found this forum while searching info for 5$ macklem signature.
i recently found 2 macklem-carney hak notes vf-ef ,what could be the value ?
just saw 3 on ebay ,one at 49$ with no bids and 2 other ones ending in 5 days
seem to be very rare but cannot find price info on the net or in books ...
thanks for helping me !

recently found 2 macklem-carney hak notes vf-ef ,what could be the value ?

Even for UNC M/C notes I believe most of us would say "the jury is still deliberating."  I believe (but may be wrong) that many of us would say it is a bit premature to put a value on a 2 year old issue that still has time to reappear (& en mass).  We won't really know until the end of the year when they could still be released with the polymers.

On the other hand, some collectors might believe that the M/C $5.00 have all been released and we wont see any more & it is those who are creating a bidding frenzy on ebay driving the price way up (sometimes as high as 10X face) on UNC notes.  This camp likely compares the M/C $5.00 notes with the abrupt withdrawal of the 2004 original Journey $10 notes which saw the "lost prefixes" of 2003 BEL and BER notes. 

The 2 basic opinions held are:
1)  that there will be more 2011 $5.00 M/C notes to be released (& thus not rare or worth a great premium.)  If this is be the case than there will be many out there who've paid a "king's ransom" for a fairly common note.  Most of us are sure that the 2011 M/C HAE change-over prefix will be quite rare and worth a premium greater than book. Also, this group likely realizes that there could be some prefixes more common than others. 

2)  of the opinion that "what we have seen is all that what we'll ever see" (thus rare and worth a premium.) If this be the case than those who've paid a high price for an UNC M/C note will be the ones who will be laughing all the way to the bank.

As far as circulated M/C notes (VF-EF) you enquire about - this is even more prone to speculation since circulated notes never command the same premiums as UNC.

I see three possibilities closely related to what W2TW is saying:

- The Bank of Canada withdraws Journey $5 notes as soon as the polymer series is released.

- The BoC allows Journey $5 notes to circulate for a period of time after the polymer series is introduced, similar to what is happening with the $20 notes.  This means existing inventory of Journey $5 notes is put out to circulate for a short time with the intention that only the better grade notes are recirculated and the lower grade ones are culled.  Notice here that I said "intention" because, as we've seen with the $20 notes, the banks will recirculate whatever they have, probably because it costs them money to send back old bills and order new ones.  And if the BoC does not tell them in no uncertain terms to do something, they will do whatever they want, and what they want is to not spend money needlessly.  They will certainly order some polymer notes to keep the people asking for new notes happy at release time, but for everyone else, whatever they have handy will do.

- The two series are allowed to circulate simultaneously, meaning the Journey $5 notes will be fully issued and allowed to circulate for a long period of time.  For the Macklem-Carney speculators, that's not the kind of thing they want to hear.

The first scenario is possible and I *think* that this will happen to the $10 Journey notes because they have been pretty much fully issued.  They are also small in number like the $50 and $100 notes, and we know the changeover from one series to the next was abrupt for the two highest denominations.

The third scenario seems unlikely.  There are many people who don't like having two issues of notes to deal with, especially given that the two issues are not printed on the same substrate.  And the BoC can't really claim they are fighting counterfeiting while allowing the less secure series to persist in circulation.

The second scenario implies that there's a good chance that some or all of the stockpiles of $5 Journey series Macklem-Carney notes will get issued, but how extensively they will circulate with the polymer series being issued at the same time is anyone's guess. So even after the November release of the polymer series, we are still going to be guessing at what is happening. How long will Journey notes be issued? How much longer before the Bank pulls the plug on them?  That's the key variable in all three scenarios... will the Bank withdraw Journey notes right away, wait a few months, or wait almost indefinitely, allowing the paper $5 notes to wear out during their relatively short life cycle?

Of course there's one idea that we just can't seem to put down, the notion that the Bank is withholding the Macklem-Carney notes for some reason.  There is no explanation that I can imagine that makes any sense why they would do this unless the notes are sitting on a jungle island in the south Pacific...

I see three possibilities closely related to what W2TW is saying:
[third scenario] The two series are allowed to circulate simultaneously, meaning the Journey $5 notes will be fully issued and allowed to circulate for a long period of time.  For the Macklem-Carney speculators, that's not the kind of thing they want to hear.

The third scenario seems unlikely.  There are many people who don't like having two issues of notes to deal with, especially given that the two issues are not printed on the same substrate.  And the BoC can't really claim they are fighting counterfeiting while allowing the less secure series to persist in circulation.

I think that's entriely likely; after all it is exactly what is happening with $20 notes. Journey $20s are not being actively recalled and the BoC is asking banks to continue circulating them until they are worn out.

I think that's entriely likely; after all it is exactly what is happening with $20 notes. Journey $20s are not being actively recalled and the BoC is asking banks to continue circulating them until they are worn out.

I respectfully disagree.  The $20 notes seem to be following more like scenario 2 with some differences.  The Macklem-Carney $20 notes were already in widespread release at the time of issue of the polymer series introduction.  A cashier at a financial institution told me they were recirculating only the best Journey $20 notes, and many lightly circulated ones were being taken in and shipped out, presumably for destruction.  Don't forget that the residence time for paper $20 notes in circulation is longer than for $5 and $10 notes which tend to have a life expectancy of about a year.  So it has been a year since the polymer $20 notes were issued, and they were replacing a large number of notes since $20 is by far the most common denomination in circulation.  I think it would be logical that if the $5 Journey notes follow a similar pattern, it will take only a few months to achieve the same effect as what has taken a year to achieve for the $20 notes.  The $5 notes will wear out more quickly, and there are less of them to replace.

There could a short-lived flurry of $5 Macklem-Carney notes hitting circulation if the BoC intends to issue them like regular notes.  That could mean hit-and-miss availability in different regions of the country.  A partial withdrawal at the same time will make it that much harder for people to get uncirculated notes.  I'm thinking they could be harder to get than the short-lived Macklem-Carney $50 Journey notes.

Don't forget that the residence time for paper $20 notes in circulation is longer than for $5 and $10 notes which tend to have a life expectancy of about a year.

allowing the paper $5 notes to wear out during their relatively short life cycle

You keep focussing on the paper $5 relatively short life cycle but I don't think the BOC looks at it like this any more.

For a long time we've assumed $20 notes last far longer than the $5.00 or $10 but I am fairly certain this model is being revised by BOC since "cash is no longer king" or used with the same frequency (now) as it has been in the past. When cash is actually being employed (today) it is likely in higher denominations and I believe this trend has extended the fives' residence time.  The tendency to employ debit/credit cards and even online transactions for minor purchases (most services) is becoming the norm.  

I've talked to many small business owners about my hobby (& looking for certain elusive notes) and they often laugh at me when I ask if they've received certain notes/denominations- esp $5.00 & then they show me their empty cash registers with cheques & comment most commerce is electronic today. Most of their cash is in $20 or higher (not $5 nor $10). How else could we explain the release of 2010 $5.00 in 2013?   -All notes are simply lasting longer (& our previously held assumptions need revised).  You won't hear about paper lasting longer from the BOC because the govt has rushed into the switch to polymer for their "enhanced environmental benefits" (ie their durability- well that's the "party line" anyway -ha ha!)  The primary motive behind the switch is obviously security ($100 being switched first) but $5, $10 & $20 of the upgraded Journey were not hit by forgers like the original series.

The only reason I speculate further M/C $5 notes being released at the same time as the polymer is entirely pragmatic: to allow for some paper to be mixed amongst these difficult plastic notes which stick together.  I believe the co-existence of Journey $20 along with polymer $20 certainly has been a blessing for most tellers I see dispensing this denomination.  (Almost all of my $20 withdrawals are a blend of the 2). Sure- eventually we will all have to deal with just plastic cash but I feel the easing out of a fairly secure (Journey) series makes more sense than the abrupt withdrawal of it.   The learning curve is less difficult to negotiate.  The old notes are there, ordering new ones costs money, and the mixture of the 2 substrates makes polymer an easier pill to swallow.  

There could a short-lived flurry of $5 Macklem-Carney notes hitting circulation if the BoC intends to issue them like regular notes.  That could mean hit-and-miss availability in different regions of the country.

That's exactly what I would expect too. I'm sure most of us would agree on that.

Since we've seen low # SN to high # SN of M/C notes registered in the SNDB we are assuming that full runs of M/C notes were printed.  
And yet...
This actually may not be the case.  Is it not possible that the printers printed up reams or mini-reams randomly?  Was it not you mmars who wrote extensive research about how reams of notes were printed in batches? I am becoming more convinced with today's technology that notes are not being numbered from 1 to 10,000,000 in an orderly fashion (there's no need for that now).  If this be the case and than someone said "stop the press! The brass says they don't want any more paper notes. Shut her down!" after many randomly numbered batches were produced then the M/C notes we've seen may in fact be all those that we will ever see.  

However, that is not what has happened in the past, and I highly doubt that only small reams of notes were produced and released.  I am still more inclined to believe that full runs were produced & we will see more M/C notes released with the polymer.   The question still remains as to which prefixes will be the most common & which will be the tough ones to get.

Many members have tried to project the possibility of certain journey $5 prefixes available in the future.

I tried to make the projections based on the data available from SNDB.

Below is some data from SNDB relating to HP and HA prefix $5 notes:

Most prefixes except for the short runs - HPA, HAE show a range between the "reported" high and low range of almost 9.9M notes. Notable exceptions other then known short runs are:

HAL @ 7.03M
HAK @ 8.7M
HAH @ 8.9M and
HAG @ 9.2

The number of notes reported as of the end of September 2013 by prefix are as follows:

2500 or more - HAA, HAD
2000 to 2499 - HAC, HAE (2010), HPZ
1500 to 1999 - HAB, HPB, HPD, HPW, HPY
1000 to 1499 - HPC, HPG, HPK, HPL, HPV
500 to 999 - HPA, HPE, HPF, HPH, HPJ, HPM, HPN, HPP, HPR, HPS, HPT, HPU
100 and below - All 2011 M/C

Based on some additional notes that I have kept (which are not reported by SNDB) over the last 5 months the range of additional notes reported for non-2011 prefixes have been 150-500 with 150 being for the more mature prefixes (HAA, HAD) and 500 being for more current prefixes (HPK)


The following observations from the data can be made assuming that all notes in the range have been printed and available for circulation and also that the SNDB sample is not biased:

There are still 11 (excluding HPA) out of 27  non-2011 prefixes that are still not even 50% way through the potential shown by the numbers reported for HAA and HAD.

An additional 5 out of 27 prefixes are still at most 60% way through the potential shown by the numbers reported for HAA and HAD.

So 16 out of 27 prefixes (or almost 60%) non-2011 (M/C) of the total notes that have not been reported based on their potential to be reported as demonstrated by HAA and HAD.

Based on the trend for the last 5 months it would seem that new notes on average (will depend on the need for currency to be in circulation) are being reported at a maximum of about 125 per month per prefix in the SNDB.

What does this data tell us?

Assuming that the number of notes that have been printed (but not all circulated) are at least equal to the high-low range indicated by the SNDB

and

Assuming that the rate of notes reported in SNDB is a reflection of rate of "new" notes introduced in circulation

and

Assuming that the BoC will keep on introducing "new" notes even after the introduction of Polymer 5's first week of November i.e. not merely circulating the ones that are out.

Then

It would still take several months (at least 4 to 6 months in the best case scenario) of exhausting the distribution of non-2011 notes.

I can derive my own conclusions regarding introduction of 2011 $5 notes from this data but I will leave it for each member to come up with their own. If you need my personal opinion just PM me.

If you have any specific questions please feel free to ask.

The majority of the $5 Macklem-Carney that are being sold on Ebay lately are HAK prefix which doesn't reflect the numbers we have in the SNDB.  To me, they seem the most common at the moment.