Topic: Data for 2010 Jenkins-Carney $5 notes  (Read 2507 times)
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« on: October 07, 2013, 02:53:04 am »

This investigation follows from the recent discussions surrounding $5 Macklem-Carney notes.

There was speculation that the 2010-dated $5 notes (prefixes HPA-HPZ, HAA-HAE) are far from completely issued, meaning there are still plenty more bricks waiting to be released before 2011-dated Macklem-Carney notes are released in any significant numbers. I used the opportunity to investigate data for 2010-dated Jenkins-Carney $5 notes obtained from the SNDB.

The purpose of obtaining the data is to look for gaps in the data, that is, large ranges of unreported notes.  I want to make it very clear that large ranges of notes with no reported data are not proof that the notes are non-existent because a lack of data is not proof of anything.

Reams printed by CBN are usually 360,000 notes printed 45/on with a skip interval of 8,000 (or 270,000 when the skip interval is 6,000).  On a few occasions, the printers switched to a 36/on format with a skip interval of 10,000, but this produces a ream of 360,000 notes as well.  A few prefixes have some abnormalities, and a summary of the data is available in the Wiki...$5_Jenkins-Carney

We know with the help of brick researchers that CBN creates mixed bricks.  What this means is that a brick can contain many smaller ranges of serial numbers, usually from one ream.  So even with just one note reported from a given ream, we know that the ream exists and some notes were issued.  We just don't know how many bricks from each ream were released and how many are sitting somewhere ready for release.

So I looked for large gaps in the SNDB data that could indicate missing reams of unreleased notes.

Here are the largest gaps I found for each prefix:

HPA   80,019
HPB   68,145
HPC   269,384
HPD   136,860
HPE   241,359
HPF   242,923
HPG   360,803
HPH   389,437
HPJ   405,467

HPK   182,037
HPL   432,612
HPM   198,379
HPN   162,548
HPP   261,795
HPR   301,297
HPS   1,486,623
HPT   417,129

HPU   280,024
HPV   262,661
HPW   135,495
HPY    135,694
HPZ   504,271
HAA   151,876
HAB   734,95
HAC   50,316
HAD   98,375
HAE   49,580

With many prefixes reporting gaps of less than 100,000, this is an indication that 2010-dated $5 notes are quite advanced in circulation.

The largest gaps correspond nicely with entire reams of notes that are missing.  Here are the missing reams:

HPG 7.56 - 7.92
HPH 3.24 - 3.60
HPJ 9.00 - 9.36
HPS 1.08 - 2.52  (4 reams)
HPT 4.32 - 4.68
HPZ 7.92 - 8.28

There are also a couple of reams for HPL which have 1-2 notes reported but none that have 0 reported.

So, in summary, for the roughly 272 million $5 notes printed in 2010, the reams where no data have been reported in the SNDB make up 3.24 million notes or 1.2% of the total printed.  Again, though, that does not mean the data proves 98.8% of the notes printed in 2010 have been released.  Neither do we know how many of the 3.24 million unreported notes have been released.  But one thing we can say for sure is that the release of 2010-dated $5 notes is mature.

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