Are modern day replacements RARER than in those in other series?

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I do understand the appeal of modern replacement notes and fully support those who do choose to collect them. I choose not to 

I appreciate your opinion.
I guess the one thing that I have found is that many collectors (and this is NOT in anyway directed to you) have their doubts and not until they start to get bricks do they really get a feel for what it is like to actually find something first hand. Many people still don't really understand this or care to (and I don't blame them) but it is addicting...much like buying a lottery ticket every week, I choose to get bricks...although the costs are much higher

The only difference between bricking and the lottery is that even if you find something, there may be no prize you can claim....

I do understand the appeal of modern replacement notes and fully support those who do choose to collect them. I choose not to.

Same here. I think every collector is unique and all are good reasons to collect.

In your opinion, as a collector, have you found that the notes you purchased increased in book value over time, or has any of them been disappointments?
Also, although you do enjoy collecting identifiable replacement notes have you run into dealers that have exaggerated the true nature of the note in order to sell something to you or convince you of its value?

I have found that the bottom has fallen out of the replacement note market.  Having decided to acquire these notes over the past 2 years, I actually find that I can get some very good deals from the vendors I regularly deal with. 

My biggest disappointments from an investment standpoint are the following:

1.  A really ragged French $25 note that I would like to sell in order to upgrade.  It is mostly tape and that's why nobody wants it...

2.  The pair of RS 1974 $2 test notes I bought a few years back have depreciated by 1/3

3.  The 1954 Test note I bought at the same time has also depreciated by 1/3

4.  The 1979 replacement notes I have really haven't appreciated at all since I bought them years ago...

5.  A $500 French Front and Back Proof that I believe I overpaid for having been assured of its rarity...Present auction records indicate that I paid WAY too much for that one... 

I've decided to buy pieces I enjoy looking at for a price I am willing to pay instead of thinking too much about the money I spent on it.  I do think that the replacement market will rebound eventually, but I'm not looking to become wealthy from paper money investments...

I also like the treasure hunting aspect of going to the banks and getting circulation finds at face value... 

EBX Bonin-Thiessen $2 notes, the first year they hit circulation they were worth $100 in GEM. Not long after they fell to $24 and never recovered.

It is rather interesting for me to have this topic on modern day replacement come about at this time. Almost about one year ago I came across and joined this forum. It happened primarily because of modern day replacement notes.

I have been interested in representational aspects of bank notes design and have been casually studying them. About a year or so ago as I was examining some patterns on notes I ended up getting a crisp bundle of 5's. The notes were mostly in sequential order except for 2 notes that were missing from the sequence and replaced by some other notes.

Being curious I googled around and landed up on some articles on this subject. I realized that I had found some replacement notes. I went to the library and checked the catalog which gave me some prices that were very appealing.

Since I had no interest in them I thought of selling them. I was happy to get somewhere between the face and the catalog value based on AU grade (although the notes would easily be considered UNC).

I had some dealings in coins with a dealer to whom I would sell things that did not belong in my collection. Generally the dealer was able to offer fair prices reasonably discounted to the market prices. I was happy with this arrangement. This dealer also sold bank notes and so I contacted the dealer to ask about selling my notes.

The response completely shocked me. The dealer told me politely that there was absolutely no interest on their part to buy these  notes, let alone at a price even substantially discounted from the catalog price but higher than face.

I have since realized that I could have potentially offered these notes for sale to forum members. But since I am typically not in the business of selling I mostly bring my stuff to dealers to be sold to them. For me if the market for selling to dealers does not exist then those kind of things are not worth much.

What was interesting to me was that the particular dealer was on the pricing panel of the catalog. Well you can very well imagine the level of trust I have in such pricing.

And yet every dealer I have been to, will use the pricing in the book to sell the notes.

Kudos to all the collectors who believe in these modern day replacement notes but I certainly find the business of these replacement notes to be very strange.

When a note had an X or a * in its serial number there was no questions as to its status us a replacement note.

This is a really interesting comment. Currently most would agree that an X note is very much accepted as a replacement note just as much as an asterix note is. The truth is a one point in time the only replacement ever known was the star. When a few first started to tell people that they thought the printing companies had changed the marking of replacements from stars to now X's they were ridiculed quite harshly at the time. Can you imagine saying a replacement is marked by an X, if that's the case why can't all letters mark replacements?..... wait a minute, that sounds a whole like modern replacements. aren't they just regular notes or is it that regular notes are just replacements?

MG

What was interesting to me was that the particular dealer was on the pricing panel of the catalog. Well you can very well imagine the level of trust I have in such pricing.

 

As I mentioned before, there are some dealer(s) on the panel that I know promoted modern day replacements, and in  swore by them as highly collectible, yet when their source runs out where they can no longer get bricks they make a quick 180 degree turn and suddenly they have no interest.
The other fact is that as long as dealers have hoards of notes stashed in their inventory it will appear prices on those pieces remain quite stable.
As a business it only makes sense to sell what you believe is sellable and make a profit in doing so ...and there is nothing wrong with that in my opinion...

However the fact remains that everyone collects different things for different reasons and that is what makes the hobby interesting... I never got into the hobby with the intention of making money or hoping that it would be my retirement egg...
I just like finding and hunting down some neat notes for my collection....bottom line is that Iwill always have face value less the depreciated amount that I hung onto them

What I find most puzzling about the whole "new replacement" note phenomenon is the "reputable researchers" mentioned in Charlton who find and report anomalous serial number ranges that then become "confirmed insert ranges".

Who are these mysterious "reputable researchers"? and who has deemed them "reputable"? Are they actually listed by name anywhere? How do they operate? Does each one work alone or do they work as a group? How can one join their ranks? Who "confirms" their findings into the published "confirmed insert ranges"? Have these questions been answered in CPMS newsletters or anywhere else?

The best person to talk to about the specifics is Gilles Pomerleau who is listed as a member of the pricing panel and a contributor to the catalogue.
To the best of my knowledge any information that anyone finds when brick searching is forwarded to him and he is the ultimate source as to whether or not a specific range is confirmed and eventually placed in the catalogue.
If you are interested in actually contacting him directly, I can provide you with a phone number or mailing address.
I'm sure he can answer all of your questions.
Hope this helps

Friedsquid

This discussion has been to some extent characterized by a lack of information about the accepted protocols regarding insert replacement notes.  A lot of it is repetition of questioning that took place about four years ago.  Searching this site can be quite informative!  Check out this thread:
http://www.cdnpapermoney.com/forum/index.php?topic=10315.msg47008#msg47008

I, for one, deny having any involvement in the protocols for deciding insert note ranges even though my name appears on the supporting documentation linked above.

This is a really interesting comment. Currently most would agree that an X note is very much accepted as a replacement note just as much as an asterix note is. The truth is a one point in time the only replacement ever known was the star. When a few first started to tell people that they thought the printing companies had changed the marking of replacements from stars to now X's they were ridiculed quite harshly at the time. Can you imagine saying a replacement is marked by an X, if that's the case why can't all letters mark replacements?..... wait a minute, that sounds a whole like modern replacements. aren't they just regular notes or is it that regular notes are just replacements?

MG

I have seen rather lengthy runs of UNC asterisk notes and "X" replacements available for sale.  Is it possible that during the era of identifiable replacements, the notes could have been used to fill an order? 

Is it possible that during the era of identifiable replacements, the notes could have been used to fill an order?

Absolutely.  A friend of mine got whole bundles of $2 X notes back in the day, particularly towards the end.

Absolutely.  A friend of mine got whole bundles of $2 X notes back in the day, particularly towards the end.

As I was going through my collection today, I found a whole pile of 1979 $20 replacement notes that I had saved in the 1990's as the transition to the Birds series was taking place.  I seem to recall that my parents and relatives would get "5100" or "516" notes quite frequently from their cash withdrawals.

Everyone knew about my obsession with paper money so they saved a few for me.    I guess this was another instance of the BoC using up old obsolete stock before issuing notes of a current series.

Dean