$5.00 Frontier HCG has arrived

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went thru another brick of $5.00 today and found:

TWO HCG's (first ones on SNDB)  :-D   note the higher number missed radar by one digit...but unfortunately they are both badly creased maybe VF20-30.

TWO of those "whereswilly.com" bills, never seen them before and suddenly I get two.

one Frontier J-C radar HPT 8954598 grade VF.

a Jenkins-Dodge CBN note printed 2004 HNW 8089086, they seem to be less common on the SNDB and incredibly it has no creases, grades about VF-30 and it was missing from my collection (had only BAI in this series)     :-D   

and finally 4 M-C Journey: one HAJ and 3 ratty old HAGs.

{http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img538/8446/ZFuj3t.jpg:http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img538/8446/ZFuj3t.th.jpg}

TWO of those "whereswilly.com" bills, never seen them before and suddenly I get two.

I have seen more than 7,000 Where's Willy bills since 2001. Nearly all of them were marked by me. It's a fun hobby that doesn't cost anything.

PS you should edit you image to partially mask the serial number. Pictures of Where's Willy bills on the web result in people entering the bill who don't actually have the bill, which messes up the site's stats.

14 months later and only SIX $5.00 HCG's (2013 issue) have been reported on the SNDB.  I kept the two I found just in case. These are some of the rarest of any $5.00 series in the DB...any theories as to why this happened...are there another ten million of them sitting at the back of the vault???

14 months later and only SIX $5.00 HCG's (2013 issue) have been reported on the SNDB.  I kept the two I found just in case. These are some of the rarest of any $5.00 series in the DB...any theories as to why this happened...are there another ten million of them sitting at the back of the vault???

Most likely just sitting in the vault. Similar thing happened with $10 FTM notes, very few were reported in the 9 million range for about a year, and then the rest of them were issued.

It's an unusual situation, but not that unusual given that the same thing has happened previously for other prefixes.  Notes tend to get printed in batches, and the first prefix in a batch is the one that gets issued last.  So we look at the data in the SNDB and we see that prefixes up to HBW are reported in many thousands, then HBY to HCF are reported in lower numbers (couple of thousand per prefix), and then for HCG onward, only a few hundred notes per prefix are reported, except for HCG which is sitting at 7.  Because all 7 HCG notes reported have high serial numbers, it's tempting to speculate that something odd is happening, but it's clear that HCH-HCM are not fully issued.  We have to remember that these polymer notes have longer circulation lives, so stockpiles or new notes are going to be sitting around that much longer.  I have two of the 7 HCG notes, and they are close in serial numbers (both start with 9953xxx).  They are circulated.  I got them a few days apart, so I thought maybe this meant more were coming, but it has been weeks and I have not found any more.

Notes tend to get printed in batches, and the first prefix in a batch is the one that gets issued last. 

It would be fair to expect that FTH to FTN M-P were printed as a "batch".

We still have FTN in low numbers relative to FTH even though the full range of FTH M-P is relatively smaller than the full range of FTN M-P.

It would appear that either these notes were not printed in the same batch or that first prefix in a batch does not necessarily get issued last or that the first prefix printed was FTN and not FTH 

It would be fair to expect that FTH to FTN M-P were printed as a "batch".

No, I would not agree with this statement.  The SNDB data does not support this.  There are so few FTN notes recorded.  Also, one has to take into consideration that demand for $10 notes in circulation is quite light compared to $5 and $20 notes.  Batches would thus be very small.

No, I would not agree with this statement.  The SNDB data does not support this.  There are so few FTN notes recorded.  Also, one has to take into consideration that demand for $10 notes in circulation is quite light compared to $5 and $20 notes.  Batches would thus be very small.

The dates on the bands of the bundles would indicate that these were indeed printed around the same time.

Date on FTJ straps indicate August 2014
Date on FTN straps indicate September 2014

I have left out the dates for FTK, FTL and FTM but they all fit in the same range.

Pretty close in a batch IMHO.

If you go by SNDB and apply the same logic then would it be fair to say HBG M-C were printed much later than HBG M-P?

HCG's are finally coming out from somewhere.

We see numbers in the 0.3 range.

Looks like patience will be rewarded.

Almost 3 years since my OP. The HCG $5.00 M/P has the lowest number of finds in the DB for this series with 297 notes. It would seem there is no "hoard in the back of a vault", so are they any other theories?   

Almost 3 years since my OP. The HCG $5.00 M/P has the lowest number of finds in the DB for this series with 297 notes. It would seem there is no "hoard in the back of a vault", so are they any other theories?   

  If we look at the next few prefixes after HCG they all have more notes reported though they are all under 1000 which is less than the other prefixes.  In my opinion, it is likely that they have not been all released at the moment.  Although the lowest and highest reported notes are near the extremes, there could be large ranges of notes with no notes entered in the database between these extremes.  In other words, its possible that there still are some bricks at "the back of the vault".

Here is my personal data off of my own sightings. This is of course biased by what was released in, or not in, my region, but it may still be of interest to you.

HCG04 x2
(Large gap)
HCG36 x35
HCG37 x12
HCG38 x2
HCG39 x3
HCG42 x6
HCG43 x4
HCG44 x3
HCG45 x1
HCG46 x7
HCG47 x10
HCG48 x2
HCG49 x21
HCG50 x59
HCG51 x7
HCG52 x46
HCG53 x107
HCG55 x3
HCG56 x2
HCG57 x2
HCG58 x1
HCG59 x2
HCG60 x4
HCG63 x3
HCG68 x2
No HCG spotted greater than 68.

Though I know it isn't going to happen, I'd like to see how my observations compare to the SNDB, if they roughly match up to each other or not i.e. the big gap from 04 to 36.

Wish I had post editing abilities...I should mention that though I've seen 347 of them, my first sighting of one was only November 11 of last year, very late for what you would think HCG would be and over a month later than the last time this topic had a new post. At that point I had crossed paths with every single other polymer $5 prefix except HCS. I'm gonna say that the vault theory is at least true for the prefix ranges I've found. May still be in the process of doing so, even, but I'm no expert on such matters.

Some notes have truly been printed in limited ranges: (a post was made about the $20 ERG Journey which pretty much established that even this prefix- with large # reported has some SN# ranges that missing or very scarce)

No post has been made about the: $50 M/C GHD (other then the different front and back PN/printing pattern) & IMO it is likely the other prefixes we're finding extremely tough to find: $10 M/C FTH, $20 BSW, $50 AMK & $100 EKZ) may have unique printing lay-outs & were not just change-overs- but also notes that were printed in very limited ranges.

It is possible that the $5 HCG just had limited ranges printed but unless you have access to the SNDB it is pretty hard to confirm (& notes may still be released).  We saw very few of the M/P $10 FTN & I initially thought it would follow a similar pattern (noted above) but then noticed large batches released right around the time on the new "150" commemorative $10 (this past June). 

The $20 W/P FVP & non-commemorative FWW are still trickling out in small numbers. The FVP should have been released a LONG time ago (and would support the "Back of the Vault" theory). This could also be the case for the HCG.  I've seen more HCG than HCS (or the 2 prefixes above which I'm actively searching for).  I may have reported half I've seen (like 5 out of 10) because I am not focussing on $5 right now/and didn't have access to SNDB. At nearly 300 reported notes- (100 short of the fairly common M/P $10 FTN) - not sure whether its a noteworthy prefix.

  I'm seeing a few people keeping their own personal databases of notes they come across and I have to say that's a really great idea.  When someone has a question like this, it makes it easier to share your personal finds as opposed to trying to remember what notes you've found (which unless there was something that stood out on a note is hard to do).  I can't believe I never thought about doing this before. 

- not sure whether its a noteworthy prefix.

  I have to agree with this statement.  The distribution of the notes or the final printed numbers of the prefix may be outside the norm, though I don't think its incredibly rare or in the same league as the other prefixes you've mentioned.