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Topic: A curious statement...  (Read 3215 times)
Dean
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« on: October 02, 2023, 07:22:26 pm »

Hi,

I was browsing through the web pages of the BoC Currency Museum and came across the page on the Scenes of Canada $100 note.

On this page is a curious quote:

"Millions of Scenes of Canada $100 bills are still in circulation, but few of us ever see one. Which is a pity, because it is an example of great bank note design with even greater imagery by a master engraver."

https://www.bankofcanadamuseum.ca/2023/07/the-scenes-of-canada-series-100-bill/

Are there really still millions of 1975 series $100 notes in circulation?  If so, I'd like to know where they are hiding!

Dean

BWJM
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2023, 10:23:08 pm »

An interesting allegation.

The Birds $100 note was first issued on December 3, 1990.  Let's look at the Bank of Canada's Note Liabilities data, a historical listing of just how much money is outstanding from the Bank of Canada.  On January 1, 1990, the Bank listed $7,676,995,000 in $100 notes outstanding.  That's over 76 million $100 notes.  The vast majority of those would be 1975 $100 notes, but a good portion would be earlier issues, especially 1954 and 1937.  There is no breakdown available beyond the denomination.  So let's be conservative and say half were 1975 issue.  That's about 38 million notes.  Over time, we've had three new series of banknotes: Birds, Journey and polymer.  It wouldn't be a huge leap of faith to suggest that 80% of those banknotes have since been destroyed, leaving over 15 million outstanding.  Assuming a third of them are older issues, that's still 10 million 1975 $100s.  So it's not really that far-fetched of an allegation.

Bringing you all up to date, the total value of $100 notes outstanding as of January 1, 2022, is $72,991,329,000, or about 730 million notes.  Almost all of that will be the newest polymer series, but there are still plenty of Journey and Birds series notes floating about and being turned in every day.  But the growth in that number is amazing.

You can see the full Note Liabilities data via a page on my website at https://www.bwjm.ca/tools_noteliabilities.php.  This information is taken directly from the Bank of Canada.

BWJM, F.O.N.A.
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Redlock
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2023, 01:47:16 am »

You can see the full Note Liabilities data via a page on my website at https://www.bwjm.ca/tools_noteliabilities.php.  This information is taken directly from the Bank of Canada.

Thanks for the link. Highly interesting information.
But where does the BoC hide this information on their website? I was curious and did a quick search. However, I was not able to find it.  ???
It would be great if you could give me the link. And no, I do trust the information you are giving, Yet, I would like to know where it is on the BoC's website.
Secondly, you have the information about the number of notes in circulation available in a chart. Do you have it in a table, too?
BWJM
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2023, 06:37:03 am »

You can find the official source here:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/bank-of-canada-note-liabilities-formerly-k1/

As for the number of notes, it would simply be the value divided by the face value of the note.  Neither my website nor the Bank's provides that data in a table but it is easy to figure out if you need it.

BWJM, F.O.N.A.
Life Member of CPMS, RCNA, ONA, ANA, IBNS, WCS.
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Redlock
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2023, 01:41:21 pm »

You can find the official source here:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/bank-of-canada-note-liabilities-formerly-k1/
Thanks for the link.  :)


As for the number of notes, it would simply be the value divided by the face value of the note. Neither my website nor the Bank's provides that data in a table but it is easy to figure out if you need it.
I had hoped to avoid the task of doing all the calculations by myself. Obviously, I have to do it myself. Well, a rainy weekend is probably coming soon. So...

I find the actual number of notes in circulation always more interesting than the value of the notes in circulation.
BWJM
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2023, 03:47:59 am »

I had hoped to avoid the task of doing all the calculations by myself. Obviously, I have to do it myself. Well, a rainy weekend is probably coming soon. So...

Not everything is served up on a silver platter, my friend. Have fun when that rainy weekend comes along.

BWJM, F.O.N.A.
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AJG
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2023, 06:26:56 am »

Hi,

I was browsing through the web pages of the BoC Currency Museum and came across the page on the Scenes of Canada $100 note.

On this page is a curious quote:

"Millions of Scenes of Canada $100 bills are still in circulation, but few of us ever see one. Which is a pity, because it is an example of great bank note design with even greater imagery by a master engraver."

https://www.bankofcanadamuseum.ca/2023/07/the-scenes-of-canada-series-100-bill/

Are there really still millions of 1975 series $100 notes in circulation?  If so, I'd like to know where they are hiding!

Dean

I think the reason for the millions of 1975 issue $100 notes still in circulation is because of collectors hoarding them for sentimental reasons. If people are hoarding those notes, they count as being "still in circulation".

The number of $100 notes in circulation is pretty high, and I bet if not for the 1975, 1990 and 2004 series $100 notes, the number of $100 notes in circulation would probably be quite low (but likely not to the extent of $10 notes).

Of course, if the BoC decides to drop legal tender status on older $100 notes, the number of acceptable $100 notes in circulation will likely drop significantly.
BWJM
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2023, 10:06:30 am »

I think the reason for the millions of 1975 issue $100 notes still in circulation is because of collectors hoarding them for sentimental reasons. If people are hoarding those notes, they count as being "still in circulation".

The number of $100 notes in circulation is pretty high, and I bet if not for the 1975, 1990 and 2004 series $100 notes, the number of $100 notes in circulation would probably be quite low (but likely not to the extent of $10 notes).

Of course, if the BoC decides to drop legal tender status on older $100 notes, the number of acceptable $100 notes in circulation will likely drop significantly.
While there is a morsel of truth to what you're saying, it doesn't go much beyond that.  There's no way collectors account for more than maybe a few tens of thousands of outstanding $100 notes.  Think about it... The Canadian banknote collector market is a pretty shallow pool with only a few thousand collectors out there (not counting the most casual collectors who wouldn't even think about saving a $100 note).  If each of them had five $100s, let's generously say that's 200,000 notes.  Even if we double that, we're still not even at half a million.

As for the number of notes by series, let's look at the number of notes produced:
- 1937: 5.14 million
- 1954: 23.7 million
- 1975: 160.8 million
- 1988: 309.85 million
- 2004: 339.56 million
- 2011: 960 million (so far, up to HJH)

There is no reason at all to believe that anything other than the vast majority of the 730 million outstanding notes are going to be the polymer issue.  After all, that issue alone overwhelms the entire production of all other series combined, all of which are officially withdrawn.

BWJM, F.O.N.A.
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President, IBNS Ontario Chapter.
Treasurer, Waterloo Coin Society.
Show Chair, Cambridge Coin Show.
Fellow of the Ontario Numismatic Association.
AL-Bob
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2023, 10:22:07 am »

I had hoped to avoid the task of doing all the calculations by myself.

That's what spreadsheets were invented for.  Just download libreoffice (free and much better than the bloated microsoft products), open Calc, import csv, put in the formula you need, drag it all the way down and there you go.  No need to calculate anything yourself.


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docstrange
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2023, 10:26:58 am »

One think I noticed is the chart shows a lot of $1,000 notes have been returned to the banks
AL-Bob
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2023, 10:31:48 am »

To answer the OP, it seems like the statement that "Millions of Scenes of Canada $100 bills are still in circulation" is pure speculation on the part of Mr. Iddon.  BWJM, please correct me if I'm wrong, but is there any reason to think that the BoC even compiles this information?  We know outstanding notes by denomination and by issuer; not by series, signature, prefix or anything else.


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AL-Bob
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2023, 10:40:09 am »

One think I noticed is the chart shows a lot of $1,000 notes have been returned to the banks

Indeed.  It seems that the removal of "legal tender" status a few years back has spooked some people into getting rid of them as quickly as possible.  I've heard some stories of them selling at significant discounts below face value as certain people (who might have reasons not to want to bring them to the bank themselves) scramble to get rid of them any way they can.


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Dean
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2023, 06:43:19 pm »

To answer the OP, it seems like the statement that "Millions of Scenes of Canada $100 bills are still in circulation" is pure speculation on the part of Mr. Iddon.  BWJM, please correct me if I'm wrong, but is there any reason to think that the BoC even compiles this information?  We know outstanding notes by The denomination and by issuer; not by series, signature, prefix or anything else.

Does anybody have any insight with respect to how the Bank of Canada Note Redemption Office works?

As mutilated notes come in, do the employees manually record every single serial number of every single note that crosses the table before being consigned to the furnaces?

The Bank of Canada has records of how many notes were issued in each denomination for each series and I'm curious as to how thorough the redemption process is.

Ex:  If a $1 note with the serial number AAA1234567 is redeemed, does the bank employee cross that specific serial number off of the list of issued 1973 $1s and deduct it from the total $1s outstanding in the BoC banknote liabilities report?

Dean

BWJM
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2023, 09:34:27 pm »

BWJM, please correct me if I'm wrong, but is there any reason to think that the BoC even compiles this information?  We know outstanding notes by denomination and by issuer; not by series, signature, prefix or anything else.
As mutilated notes come in, do the employees manually record every single serial number of every single note that crosses the table before being consigned to the furnaces?

The Bank of Canada has records of how many notes were issued in each denomination for each series and I'm curious as to how thorough the redemption process is.

Since you are both basically asking the same thing, I'll respond jointly.

First off, a bit of history.  We know that at least through the 1940s, the Bank of England had ledger books where they recorded every single banknote that they issued, and they struck them off when they were turned in for redemption and destroyed.  We know this because this is how the famed Operation Bernhard counterfeit banknotes were ultimately discovered.  They were of such high quality that they passed all but the most rigorous examinations, and even some of those!  But when a note comes in for redemption and the ledgers show it has already been redeemed, something is amiss, and so it turned out to be!  A similar situation occurred in 1929 Portugal with the Alves Reis banknotes.  Both are very interesting stories and I encourage you all to research them further.  That's all I'll say about them here.

Back to the point, although ledgers were kept almost a century ago, with the volume of banknotes produced in modern times, such a thing would be impractical today, even with computerization and digital recordkeeping.  Consider also the mutilated notes program.  Many banknotes come in for redemption where only bits and pieces of them are available, or where they are so destroyed or otherwise contaminated that determining their serial number is impossible.  Additionally, the Bank of Canada doesn't actually do the bulk of banknote processing anymore.  That's left to various regional cash management companies who, under contract with both the Bank of Canada and the Royal Canadian Mint, sift through coins and currency returned from banks and remove unfit banknotes, old coins, etc.  I believe that these companies simply report the quantity and breakdown of the unfit banknotes removed and then they destroy them without ever sending them back to the Bank of Canada.

In fact, it would be inefficient for the Bank of Canada to even be a physical middleman in the supply of new banknotes.  When a regional facility requires more notes, they place an order with the Bank and the Bank authorizes a shipment from Canadian Bank Note directly to the facility.

So I do not believe that serial number-based records are currently kept by the Bank of Canada.  Serial numbers exist as a means of counting banknotes and ensuring that the right amount of banknotes are produced and issued.

There is also no evidence at this point that the Bank of Canada maintains records of how many notes per series are still outstanding, only the issuer (Bank of Canada, Dominion of Canada, chartered banks, provincial notes) and the denomination.

That said, I do not work for the Bank of Canada or even in the financial sector, nor have I ever, and I have no "inside information" in this regard.  It is simply the conclusions I have reached based on my personal observations over 20 years of collecting, plus a bit of logical deduction, etc.  I make no guarantees and I could be completely wrong, though that would surprise me!

BWJM, F.O.N.A.
Life Member of CPMS, RCNA, ONA, ANA, IBNS, WCS.
President, IBNS Ontario Chapter.
Treasurer, Waterloo Coin Society.
Show Chair, Cambridge Coin Show.
Fellow of the Ontario Numismatic Association.
AL-Bob
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2023, 09:42:08 am »

Thank you BWJM for your informative post, as usual!


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