Canada Post strike: will. you be affected?

News: Welcome to the Canadian Paper Money Forum.

I have really curbed my buying lately but succumbed to tossing a few bids on one of the last eBay sellers who offered true auction style listings (rather than Buy It Now/BIN).  So, of course, I won 4 World notes (from China) but these will be held up due to the Canada Post strike.

Anyone else affected?

Any predictions how the work action/negotiations will pan out?

W2W

I actually reached out to a eBay seller yesterday asking how they were shipping given the strike but never heard back so didn't buy. I don't want it sitting somewhere for an undetermined period of time.

Not Banknote/Coin related but I have to return a amazon package to a Canada Post and because of the strike I don't know when I am able to return it to Amazon. The deadline for it is November 22th so I hope the workers can negotiate a deal and everything can resume to normal operation

Archey80 & TN56 I share your concerns. 

I also had a very promising order from Europe that never arrived last year (with no labour upheaval). Eventually, after a lot of stress & contacting eBay, they refunded my money & told me that Canada Post wouldn't deliver the package. That seemed odd. I won't ever know whether this was true (or not) but I can say it was quite annoying as the order contained a couple of great notes from the DR which were about 1/2 the price of the other sellers a few years back. I'd be very lucky if I could buy those notes for the prices today.

Anyway, I am a little concerned now for my package coming from China, seeing as it won't arrive until the dispute is over. 

Typically, a strike when a company is losing revenue is not a good idea.  Canada Post will lose even more revenue, and according to what I read in other sources the corporation could run out of money by early 2025 (when I see "early 2025" I would think first quarter or April).  Plus, Canada Post will be required to pay off a $500 million debt by July 2025. This screams bankruptcy in the making.

Canada Post is in dire straits, and from a recent article I read they are still negotiating, but the corporation realizes it is critical to get a deal reached soon or the company may end up going the way of Blockbuster Video in the new year.

Based on past history, strikes - without replacement workers - usually last no more than three months before they are financially impacted, after which the company has no choice other than to give in to many of the union's demands - but after this strike is over, there will likely be many post offices closing down and merged with postal outlets in bigger communities - but if any layoffs happen, it may be minimal to none. Or it may be significant. That probably won't be announced until 2 to 4 weeks after the workers return to work.  There may also be reduced hours of operation for many post offices and postal outlets - possibly similar to the hours of teller service at many banks.  Instead of operating from 9 to 5, it may end up becoming 10 to 3.

I also believe that, after the strike is over, there will likely be longer delays on parcels arriving due to the quality of service becoming worse.  Before the strike, you would have a wait time of a few days or 2 to 3 weeks, but after the strike you may have to wait several months before your package arrives.

Canada Post is continuously negotiating because time is of the essence - not just due to the holiday season, but due to the company's financial health.  It seems as if the corporation is trying to get a deal reached without cuts and layoffs, but closing down post offices and laying off workers is an absolute last resort.  They may have to do that last resort by late January or February if the company is very close to running out of money.

The union is demanding a 24% pay hike over the four years of the agreement, and the company offered 11.5% percent over four years.  I think the 24% figure is just a bargaining tool and really all they really want is midway between - about 17 percent.  Another key issue at hand is the introduction of weekend delivery, which may lead to more frequent injuries.  Once an agreement is reached, they may not get any pay hike for the first year of the agreement, but the pay hike will likely only be good for up to 36 months - should the strike end in late December or into the new year.

I do recall an article about Boeing company workers being on strike for seven weeks, and the workers were fighting for a 40% pay hike to cover the cost of living. The workers rejected two offers - with 30% and 35% pay hikes, but they settled on 38% pay hike plus a lump sum signing bonus of $12,000 - which, according to someone's math is equivalent to 40%.  The union got what they fought for and they were immediately happy - but just after operations resumed, Boeing announced that 17,000 workers (not just striking workers) were receiving layoff notices.  It turns out the offer was too good to be true for Boeing workers. It came back to bite the union in the end.

That said, I expect there will be thousands of jobs cut and/or post offices closing down and moving to bigger post offices after Canada Post ends their strike, but it may not be announced until a month afterwards.

A strike that lasts more than two weeks will usually mean bad news for the workers - whether job losses, consolidation, reduced work days, etc.

If the strike continues into the new year, it may likely be settled by February - due to the looming tax season by that point.  Plus, most strikes that continue into the new year are usually settled by late January or early February - which is typically when strike season is over.

It affects me. I'm always on the lookout for new notes, whether I'm at home in Portland (most of the time) or Vancouver (a few times a year). I usually only buy the older high-ticket items in person, so I can see for myself and avoid nonsensical inflated online prices. For newer notes, if I find ones I'm looking for at the right price from a Canadian seller I'll still gladly buy, but I'd ask the seller to hold of on shipping until a week after the strike is over, just to reduce chances of misplacement. I'm already used to waiting a week or two, so a little longer wait is not a deal-breaker.


As for sales to Canada, I can't say, as I don't usually have a lot of Canadian buyers. Regardless, I hope the sides can come together on a satisfactory agreement to get this resolved soon. Housing and inflation are eating up everyone's buying power these days, but the Boeing case is a cautionary tale of getting what you asked for.



Off-topic perhaps, but it's kind of sad that the trusty yet beleaguered postal agencies that everyone depends upon like Canada Post and USPS are expected to turn a profit, while military and healthcare budgets can balloon year after year and the only reactions those manage to elicit are yawns and shrugs.

USPS has undergone numerous cuts, restructurings, and price increases over the last few years in an attempt to stop the bleeding, but any gains have been immediately negated by inflation. The end result being that the figures on the spreadsheet still look bad, and our mail service now takes a few days longer on average coast-to-coast.

Good point on the USPS situation. Canada Post, whether they get a deal sooner or later, they will have to do massive cuts to the service, major restructurings and increases of shipping fees and postage stamp prices.  I also wouldn't be shocked if some post offices will undergo construction next summer (i.e. renovations) in order to expand the surviving facilities to house the postal boxes and equipment from the permanently closed post offices. Or maybe some larger postal outlets will probably close as well, but move to leased space inside a drugstore or supermarket - as that would be much cheaper than having individual post offices scattered throughout the country.  There are way too many rural post offices in Canada, and many likely don't have enough foot traffic - they should have closed down years ago.  Should Canada Post decide to close down post offices, it may require travelling many kilometres to go to a postal outlet to put something in the mail. It stinks, but that's life.

I did learn that Canada Post had proposed a 25¢ increase in the price of a postage stamp, which would come into effect on January 13, 2025 if approved.  If the strike continues into January, the price hike may likely come into effect after services resume, and expect another (possibly bigger) price hike in July, and maybe even April.

I also wouldn't be surprised if any parcels and envelopes still in queue will probably be returned to the sender once services resume, as Canada Post will likely inform the sender that additional shipping fees and/or postage stamps may be required.

Archey80 & TN56 I share your concerns. 

I also had a very promising order from Europe that never arrived last year (with no labour upheaval). Eventually, after a lot of stress & contacting eBay, they refunded my money & told me that Canada Post wouldn't deliver the package. That seemed odd. I won't ever know whether this was true (or not) but I can say it was quite annoying as the order contained a couple of great notes from the DR which were about 1/2 the price of the other sellers a few years back. I'd be very lucky if I could buy those notes for the prices today.

Anyway, I am a little concerned now for my package coming from China, seeing as it won't arrive until the dispute is over.

I honestly feel bad for the Buyers/Sellers during this situation. I wonder when people who are buying coins/banknote will get their package during the strike, I wonder how long the strike will last for. I rarely buy any coins/banknotes on Ebay so I never experienced a situation like this before.

walktothewater sometimes I feel afraid ordering banknotes or coins internationally because of stories many people had experienced before. It's unfortunate that it had happened to you but at least you got the refund back. As a new collector reading these replies and resources available helps me a lot and avoid making mistakes as a beginner

I did learn that Canada Post desperately needs to change its business model in order to survive.  But the problem is, the CUPW are being stubborn in their ways and may also want a bigger pay raise that the corporation won't be able to afford.  I also read somewhere that if the strike drags on and the corporation loses more revenue, it may have to reconsider past proposals - which is a telltale sign that the corporation's demise is soon coming if CUPW don't get their act together and get with the times.

Another possible scenario if the strike drags on: Drugstores and retail outlets will likely terminate CP's  contracts to have postal services offered, leaving CP no choice other than to shop around for a new retail chain to set up a postal outlet.  Another scenario is that CP may end up closing down post offices in nearby communities and merge them with a big postal facility or big post office in a bigger town or city. I can also see some mail processing facilities closing down too - probably restricted to one such facility each in the Eastern and Western half of the country (Toronto and Vancouver, most likely).

I am thinking the intent of the strike is to allow the corporation to recover lost revenue through not paying any salaries for a period of time.  The longer the strike lasts, the more money they can recover.  Sometimes a long strike may be needed in order to recover a huge deficit.

If, say, a Canada Post worker with 10 years of service makes, on average, $70,000 annually, and there are 55,000 such workers in the workforce, that would result in well over $3,000,000,000 in money spent on salaries, and Canada Post is $3,000,000,000 in debt. It makes sense as to why Canada Post's future offers are going to be more inferior.  Either way, there's no way a $3,000,000,000 will be recovered quickly with the absence of layoffs or post office closures, but it can be recovered, and according to my math if they don't do any cuts, it will take around 9 or 10 months of no service to recover that huge deficit.  If this is true, you could be looking at late August or September next year before the service resumes.

But then again, Canada Post seems to be moving as quickly as possible to get a deal reached before the holiday rush, and before they run out of operating capital by early 2025. The strike, if it drags on, could cause the corporation to run out of operating capital much sooner.  The Federal Labour Minister is helping to keep talking as much as they can in order to get a deal reached quickly.  Time is of the essence.

At the same time, Canada Post's key focus now is to change the business model in order for the company to survive.  The business model we've had for well over a century is no longer affordable.  Times are changing.

I know there is a strike currently but I heard on the news that some Canada Post office were open so today I went to try to return a package  to see if they would accept it but they told me they couldn’t accept it.

I wonder why some post office are still open if the strike is happening. Hopefully the strike will  end soon as the deadline to return the package I have is November 22nd and I am afraid that I can’t return the package I have and lose out of the refund.

I know there is a strike currently but I heard on the news that some Canada Post office were open so today I went to try to return a package  to see if they would accept it but they told me they couldn’t accept it.

I wonder why some post office are still open if the strike is happening. Hopefully the strike will  end soon as the deadline to return the package I have is November 22nd and I am afraid that I can’t return the package I have and lose out of the refund.

You should probably notify the person you bought the item from, and explain the situation.  They should have no problem giving you a refund at a later date.  If they choose not to give you a refund, you may have the right to file a lawsuit.

It is weird how post offices are still open, but maybe they're only open just to sell stamps and other merchandise.

Another idea that could happen after the strike is the introduction of C.O.D. fees.  Anybody who orders any item and gets delivered by Canada Post will have to pay cash upon delivery of the item (whether physical cash, debit card, or electronic payment).

Maybe the post offices staying open might contribute to CP's depletion of operating capital by early 2025.

Negotiations are resuming today.

It is weird how post offices are still open, but maybe they're only open just to sell stamps and other merchandise.

Another idea that could happen after the strike is the introduction of C.O.D. fees.  Anybody who orders any item and gets delivered by Canada Post will have to pay cash upon delivery of the item (whether physical cash, debit card, or electronic payment).

The Post Offices that remain open are the franchises (in Shopper's Drug Mart.)
The corporate Post Offices are closed.

It makes no sense for Canada Post to simply increase fees and stamp prices--this would drive business into the arms of their competitors.  (Granted, the price for FedEx tracked lettermail is currently 3 times the rate that Canada Post charges for registered mail).

What should happen (but probably won't) is for Canada Post to lower their rates for stamps and packages and make up the revenue by increasing volume.  Undercutting the competition is the only way Canada Post will survive.

As for C.O.D. fees, I hope this doesn't become a reality since we pay upfront for delivery services via stamps and registered mail.

Just my 2 cents...
Dean

Another idea is that, after the strike is over, if Canada Post doesn't offer discounted or free shipping to entice customers back, stores that rely on CP will probably have a big sale for online shopping only, just to get customers back to Canada Post.  CP will then have their major holiday traffic in January or February (or whenever the strike ends) instead of this year.  Worst case scenario, the days of mall shopping could be making a strong comeback after years of decline.  But if anything good comes out of the strike, foot traffic in retail outlets will have rebounded in a big way - but sadly, it may be the norms from now on.

Without these incentives, CP will lose a lot of customers in the new year and it will worsen an already problematic financial crisis for the corporation.  But I won't be one of those customers that will cut ties with CP - and if CP loses a lot of customers, if anything good comes out of it I will likely get my packages much faster since there won't be very many packages to process due to the significant loss of customers.

CP is a much cheaper parcel service than its rivals, and I will be very sad if it declares bankruptcy - especially if they lose their holiday season this year, and if the business ceases to exist before next year's holiday season.

You should probably notify the person you bought the item from, and explain the situation.  They should have no problem giving you a refund at a later date.  If they choose not to give you a refund, you may have the right to file a lawsuit.

It is weird how post offices are still open, but maybe they're only open just to sell stamps and other merchandise.

Another idea that could happen after the strike is the introduction of C.O.D. fees.  Anybody who orders any item and gets delivered by Canada Post will have to pay cash upon delivery of the item (whether physical cash, debit card, or electronic payment).

Maybe the post offices staying open might contribute to CP's depletion of operating capital by early 2025.

Negotiations are resuming today.

The stuff I am returning I bought it from Amazon so I should be able to contact their customer support and extend the deadline further until a negotiation can be agreed on.

I feel like they are open at Shoppers Drug Mart location because i believe it’s to inform customers that due to the strike they will not be accepting any packages but I also wonder are they getting paid to just stay there while the whole union/workers are on strike.

I also heard that Canada Post and the union agreed to continue delivering the next round of government benefit cheques to citizens while on strike