Stirring up some Trouble

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Seeing as most of the moderators are at a certain auction....I could stir up some real trouble, right Brent ...

Not quite...Brent and the other moderators left me in charge.  I've elected to place absentee bids for the TNS auction on eBay so that I can keep an eye on the website.

So it's like this here, see: don't anyone cause any trouble or I will have to strap you to a chair and lecture you about my collection of chiral, non-racemic reversible dalmatian presbyopic rotator notes.

Seeing as most of the moderators are at a certain auction....I could stir up some real trouble, right Brent ...

Umm... yeah... about that... I don't think so. But we did leave the forums in a precarious state of disregard during the day today. Looks like you weren't able to stir up too much since you got back home from said auction. Nice to see you again though. Glad you could make it and join us for the show, lunch, the auction, and of course dinner afterwards.

Ya, I had fun. Though a certain somebody's note collection left a large hole in my wallet....Once again thanks for showing me around Brent, and great seeing everyone else. Sorry I had to cut dinner short...but you know   actually shes here right now   Gotta run!

It's a hard juggle... a woman and a hobby....I know !!!!

That's right eyevet, It’s hard to choosing between the two so I’ve concocted a schedule to fit both of my ‘hobbies’ in my life . Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays for the ladies and the rest of every waking minute for paper money! So now I don’t have to choose  

If you have to "juggle" the 2 you better have eyes in the back of your head!

Just be careful what you show them mon!

Let me know how and when we can settle the "tab"

How was the auction anyways?.. you all are ranting raving about it but were there any "deals" or just bids that will influence the next Charlton guide?

Let me know when the dust settles...

I know James, we went through this I never show the ladies the banknotes and I certainly don't let the notes see the ladies!

As for the auction, I'll leave that to BWJM, he was tracking it ever so well and never got lost writting down the final price

Probably a little late for the next Charlton guide. Some prices were surprising, some weren't. Some were over book, some weren't. Plus, it's hard to tell whether any of the notes that got sold to "the mail" or to eBay bidders will get returned. Floor bidders cannot return notes. Oliver and I spent as much time as we could examining some selected lots before the auction to look at the grading. Some was spot-on, others were overgraded. None were undergraded.

One my concerns is that many of the sales to "the mail" were not in fact sales but a reserve bid that was not met.  Since these are recorded as sales in the auction record, and since trends and those who contribute to catalogue prices utilize auction results as a guide, that these sales to "the mail" will artificially inflate the catalogue.  

I think what is important to keep in mind are the market conditions.

What I mean is that on the weekend a lot of BOC coins and notes were sold at the show -- then more sold at the auction.  There is only a finite amount of buyers with a finite amount of money.  One has to ask oneself: what can the market reasonably bear?  

The fact that a multicolor specimen set went for well under book might not necessarily mean that Charlton's has the value inflated (sure it could) but it may also mean that the present interest in MC notes has waned, or that in light of the fact that the 54 rarer series were offered at that particular auction, (and sold many times over book) tapped out a potential buyer for the other MC series.  

In all likelihood: some very good deals could have been had at either the auction or the show.  This would depend (of course) on the condition of the goods sold. Brent's point that the notes were generally over-graded also has some bearing on how the TNS auction would pan out.

I think its wise to keep in mind that there is a certain kind of "market" at each event (even though eBay does broaden the market of the TNS auction there's still plenty of eBayers who are auction shy). There's been a lot of press about the surcharges (tax, auctioneer's fees, etc...) that add 30% your final bid.  That -- and the contention of a note's grade -- could turn off  a lot of buyers.

There is a different market at the show.  A lot of buyers prefer the laid back (no pressure) situation at the show...where a price can be haggled at.

We also have discussed how many dealers (with few exceptions: Don, Colonial Acres, etc) are prone to turn their nose up at new notes.  

Its a "Seller's" market for UNC/rare/specimens/ and nice pre-37 notes while it can still be a "buyer's" market for Journey, EF to AU, and world notes.

So many of the experts (ie CCN) advise collectors to buy "what you want" when it might be wiser to buy "what has potential" or "what isn't popular at the present moment."  

I think it would be accurate to assume there will be another increase in the Charlton book value of most notes.  Perhaps it is a bit over-inflated.  These things go in cycles.  There may be a "cooling down" period or cycle to follow.

Whether it will be 2007 is anyone's guess.  

I guess the situation works both ways ....  the more that I think of it.  There was a very respectible DC-22e in the auction.  The "mail bid" was $650 and it went to the floor and e-bay with a request for $700 which was not taken and the note was "sold to the mail bidder" at $650.  The catalogue value of this note in VF is $850.  So if auction prices have any impact on catalogue priced the fact that this note "sold" for $650 would depress the catalogue value.  

I guess I just don't see what is wrong with the auctioneer saying honestly that there is a reserve price of $700 and if it doesn't sell then it just means that there was no one in the room in the market for a DC-22e.

If the note sold at "$650" then it was indeed market value.

Note that you must add an EXTRA 30% to the final bid for the final price (tax/auction fee) so that the final payment would be $865.00 That is above book but not too far above considering the next Charlton book comes out in July & will likely have an increased BV.

Also: consider the grade.  Was it a strong VF that shows well or an aVF that barely squeaks into the VF grade? If it was a strong VF+ then it was a very good deal and if it were a VF that only the unitiated would agree upon then the "deal" is a more dubious one.

I think, overall, auctions are a pretty fair indicator of the market.  I just wanted to mention that there are other factors to keep in mind, and that the market will naturally fluctuate.  I think it would be erroneous for Charlton to lower the BV of a note if a set of specimens went below book at one auction.  That may just reflect a surprising "blip" in the trend.