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Topic: Appreciating Notes  (Read 17424 times)
buxvet
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« on: May 30, 2006, 08:25:30 pm »

With the new Charlton Catalogue soon to be released I'd like to hear some commentary on which notes people think will see the strongest appreciation. Not only dollar wise but on a percentage basis.

e.g.

perhaps a '37 Osborne $ 50 in UNC may go to 11K an appreciation of 10%
although a '35 $ 50 in FINE may move from $ 1875 to $ 2250 an appreciation of 20% but only 1/3 the appreciation in dollars.

I'm not saying this will happen but is a possible example.

Is there anyone out there that think particular notes are overpriced and may well or SHOULD decline in the upcoming edition....

comments....

Thankyou
Andrew
Oli1001
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2006, 08:52:03 pm »

To answer your first question - I think that most of the notes will appreciate 10-15% as expected. The BELs BERs will increase by a couple 100 percent while the other rare 2001 $10s will significantly.

Now to answer the other question...

Personally, I think that the 1954 $100s (all three signatures) as well as the 1975 $50s (BC-51a-i and BC-51b) and 1975 $100s (BC-52a-i and BC-52b) are overpriced and selling well below book (in unc). And if they are in AU and lower they just don't sell for any price!

These notes sell lower than book at shows, between collectors and especially on ebay. The obvious reason is that these notes were mostly all full runs, with the exception of the 1975 $100 AJC and some others, but still all the notes mentioned are often selling for about 50% of the book price on ebay and between collectors - but sell a little better at shows but still less than book. In addition, I have found that dealers tend to steer clear of these common notes and offer little to nothing for them in Unc condition.

Though true, the book price will not decrease in the next issue rather will maintain the same price but will continue to sell below book.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2006, 08:53:51 pm by Oli1001 »
JB-2007
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2006, 09:39:59 pm »

Don't forget the 1935 series, seems that every year they keep getting rarer and prices keep increasing. I look forward to see what the prices will be for the $25 issue in the 2007 book.
Oli1001
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2006, 11:08:35 pm »

I'm expecting about $500 - $1000 increase the 1935 $25 English issue, if it goes up anymore it will get fairly unattainable for my future collection.
stevepot99
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2006, 12:33:24 am »

1954 replacement A/M only 8000 printed and UNC priced at 550 compared to the devils face B/C replacement 1 dollar A/A with 7000 printed priced at 3000 for an UNC or if you look at the other end of the scale 400 for a VG compared to 35 bucks something is toatally off on the price of this note
stevepot99
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2006, 12:34:30 am »

all the 1937 osborne /towers notes hardly moved last year it is time for at least a 25% increase across the board for these notes as well
buxvet
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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2006, 03:07:34 pm »

Quote
all the 1937 osborne /towers notes hardly moved last year it is time for at least a 25% increase across the board for these notes as well

Generally speaking I don't think that series will move a lot with some exceptions.

$ 2 Oz  EF and better are way too low

$ 50 Oz  F and better are too low. VG's are fairly common. Although Don Olmstead had 2 at the Hamilton show and they were priced at $ 680. A far cry from the $ 375 book. I bought a VF earlier in the year. Not a very good one, no better than VF. Lots of wrinkles and very clean and poorly centered. But VF's are seldom seen so I bit the bullett and bought it.

$ 100 Oz  VF and better are going to skyrocket. I think your looking at VF 1250,2000,3500,5000 UNC. VG's and Fines still seem reasonably easy to find

$ 1000 Oz VG-EF I believe will see large percentage increases, with substantial dollar increases in the AU and UNC.


I think you will only see marginal movement in the $ 1, 5, 10, 20
buxvet
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2006, 07:25:29 pm »

Quote

The most underrated material?  My vote would be the back-of-the-book stuff (i.e. radars, low-numbers, error notes).




Such as this...
I got this on the weekend in Hamilton. Not a very high grade but low numbers in the old notes are pretty rare.
walktothewater
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2006, 08:01:36 pm »

Quote
Is there anyone out there that think particular notes are overpriced and may well or SHOULD decline in the upcoming edition

I think all $1000 notes are WAY OVERPRICED -- I have never seen them sell for near what Charlton states their at.  Where Charlton gets their market value of $100 to $1000 notes (54 up) is beyond me!! :o

I'm surprised there is any demand for $100 in 1937 -- except for the fact that the J MacDonald portrait is a departure from the other denominations.  I can see Osborne notes going up though.

The only notes that seems worthy of interest (in the higher denominations) are the 1935 $25 (rare commemorative note), $50 (the portrait of the future king) and the $500 (because of its odd denomination) -- but I guess all 35's are coveted by collectors.  And they should be since they were issued for such a short period of time, and have an odd colour code, and cool portraits/reverse designs.

You see far too many $100 notes (1954/1975) and Charlton even admits "lower grade notes are not collectable and command no premium"

The 1988 $100 performance is probably hurt by the lacklustre performance of its predecessors.  Why the Hidden BPN AJX is so low... is likely due to everyone's avoidance of the $100's period (knowing their low desirability).  Like the $2.00 AUG- AUN their numbers are unknown. You would think it would sell for much higher...but I see the same nice specimens in certain highly regarded dealer's stock every time I go to a TNS show.  They don't move well at all-- and they often sell at less than BV on eBay.  

I believe all the Bird notes are overpriced but the $2.00 series mentioned above which might increase some more (esp the mixed up signatures).  You rarely see the change-overs (such as EGR or CBH) achieve book when auctioned on eBay.

I feel Birds are generally overpriced because they were made so well -- their paper was thick and their printing was normally quite well centered -- etc.  The exception is the $10 Bonin Thiessen ATX which seems underpriced still (& the BDH will likely go up too).  I don't understand the attraction of the $20 note when "billions" were printed.  It seems like collectors are really "reaching" when they covet notes with or without BPN's or serifs.    What interests me with the Birds series are any errors because you don't see them too often (except the odd minor error which is interesting), bleed through, or off-set from the ink not setting.

I'm actually surprised that the new type of insert (undesignated-- but for a number range) has such a high book value.  Maybe this is more a reflection on who is involved in the pricing panel than the reality?  Its surprising the X notes don't perform better when this is the last time we see them.

1979 regular $5 and $20's have flooded the market.  The 1973 $1.00 PA note seems so overpriced its laughable.  Why would 9 million notes have such a premium?  (Again the pricing panel???) You see them all the time on eBay (below book).  You see a lot of 1967 MP notes below book too.  

I agree with Rachelprivates that the "back of the book stuff" is underrated but disagree with his assessment of the 74 $2.00 R/S test note and his assessment that the 1954 $1.00 *AM note is almost commonplace.  I found one in 2004 and haven't seen 1 at a show since.  There are 3 consecutives being offered for $1500 (I believe) on eBay right now -- and he is right -- they likely won't sell -- but a lot of eBayers avoid listings around book.  Sure there may be quite a few good examples owned or known-- but their book seems way out of wack.  I always notice when either a *A/M or R/S goes up for auction (on Ebay or elsewhere) and I really don't see it that often (more *I/O than *A/M).  There may be quite a few R/S test notes around but they are test notes after all (probably the last test notes).

Some of Charlton's pricing makes sense and some of it seems like it was "wishful thinking" esp for the higher denominations.  I can understand some demand for the higher denominations in the older issues since they were so rarely kept.  These days the higher denominations in 54 and up seem as common as grass.  That's one collector's opinion...

JB-2007
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2006, 08:20:24 pm »

I dont think the 1973 PA note are overpriced. There were supposedly 9 million printed but i dont think all 9 million were ever circulated and few were even hung onto. Actually PA notes are not that easy to find especially in the higher grades, you shouldn't have too much difficulty finding PA notes in F or VF but good luck finding one in UNC. There really aren't that many PA notes around anymore. I do expect the prices for this one to go up more.
buxvet
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« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2006, 08:28:52 pm »

These are for sale on EBay for $ 745.00 CAD. 3 Consecutive UNC's with the middle a radar.
Three at $ 275 each is $ 825. So they are listed under book and one is a radar
They have been for sale for quite sometime too.
This issue personally holds very little interest for me.
I have 30-40 UNC's that my Dad saved back when they went out of circulation few replacements but I don't actively collect the '73 $ 1
walktothewater
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« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2006, 08:35:33 pm »

Two other notes:

If you do purchase a $100 note keep in mind you'll  be lucky to see 70% book (as most dealers would offer) since so few want them.  (Who knows?  maybe this is an investment opportunity!? ::))

And yes: the 2001 Journey $10 have "increase in BV" written all over them.  As we all seem to know -- poorly printed, easily & overly counterfieted, and short "shelf-life"  spells highly desired.  Especially the 2003 and missing prefixes, and the fact they were "recalled."  The biggest gains will show for 03 BER (& likely 04BER &BET), BEL, BEP and J/D BEK insert or non-insert (all conditions). It only stands to reason that the Knight/Thiessen versions will all go up as well (esp FDY and replacements).  Radars of these $10 were selling for $40 at the last TNS show. All change-overs have potential but FEN's seem over priced in light of an eBayer continually dumping them in quantity on eBay.

We should see similar performance for the $5.00 next year when the modified version comes in its place. Look out for AOB insert jumps, AOF, and jumps in most K/D notes.  The 2004 HOH (05 HOH inserts) and the HOG inserts are ones to look out for too.

Oli1001
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« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2006, 08:43:27 pm »

Easy James! Lay off those $1000 dollar bills, their may favourite and don't deserve your ridicule ;) Now my notes are offended!
      As for the inserts, I think that the pricing has nothing to do with the pricing panel - simply a result of supply and demand. Look at it this way, there are fairly few 'brick hunters' since a large capital is necessary and their are several outrageous fees involved making 'hunting' very very unattractive and difficult. Thus, even though some of the inserts have ranges of 100,000+, many of the notes do not get into collector's hands rather are sent into circulation.

Example: If a certain prefix has a 60,000 insert range but only a 1000 (if that!) are picked up by collectors. Therefore there is several thousand collectors (especially with ebay) searching for only a 1000 insert notes in that particular prefix for their own collection. That is why they are price the way they are. I really think that they are booked at a fair price. Just my opinion, but I do agree about those high denomination notes.
walktothewater
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« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2006, 08:55:00 pm »


I really do believe that 73 PA's are like 67 MP's --  I think there were many that were hoarded and if the book reflected any kind of market reality we'd see them come down (as they should). Market desire and demand has waned considerably. Maybe UNC are rare but are they really worth $275?  

Look at the 1954 B/C $2.00 IB (for $100)  or the I/C $5.00  (for $500) So much more rare and hard to find in any condition.  But does the book reflect the true nature of how demand?  Devil's faces were printed in the millions yet there seems to be no end in sight of their demand (why? there's a world market for them!)

Although only 2.72 million MP's were printed 3 dealers turned my AU+ specimen down last TNS show.  Perhaps change-overs and short issues are more susceptible to market saturation/ supply and demand -then replacements, or other rarities...

walktothewater
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« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2006, 09:10:18 pm »

Quote
Easy James! Lay off those $1000 dollar bills, their may favourite and don't deserve your ridicule  Now my notes are offended!

Oli

I'm not in the least bit "worked up" about this topic -- but why anyone would sink that kind of coin on a note with my favourite bird on it (the pine grosbeak)-- is totally beyond me (unless its an absolutely stellar EKX I suppose).  Oh I know its the portrait of the queen!

Must have money to burn!  ::)

But then again -- your my banker-- so I WILL  lay off thos beautiful notes of yours!
 ;D

walktothewater
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2006, 09:35:35 pm »

The 3 consecutive *AM are going for $2200 in tonight's auction (maybe why there are no bids??)

OleDon
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« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2006, 10:28:17 pm »

All very interesting speculation...I just wonder how amused Bob Graham is while reading the speculations as he already knows what the book will say. Guess we'll have to wait for july before can say "The envelope, please, Mr Graham" !!

One post said no prices were going down. How can anyone be so sure ??

OleDon
Oli1001
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« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2006, 10:38:22 pm »

Quote
One post said no prices were going down. How can anyone be so sure ??

OleDon

Strictly an assumption. I would be both surprised and satisfied if certain prices decreased.
stevepot99
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« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2006, 01:59:14 am »

I do agree with you on the 5 dollar N/X should be worth more then the R/C I have seen many R/C around but you brought up a good point on the 2 dollar R/R the are very few and far between just like the N/Y
walktothewater
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« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2006, 12:14:09 am »

Quote
The most overpriced notes in the catalogue have to be multicolor Lawson-Bouey X notes (and 510 notes in the $20 denoms).  They are not even remotely rare and are not trading anywhere near catalogue in any condition.  In second place would be 1974 $2 test notes

If you want to "dump" your RS test note (I love AU by the way) than please pm me and I'll put my money where my mouth is!  I always love a good deal!!!  ::) In fact I have an EF RS test but will "settle" for another any day... so thanks in advance if its truly for sale.  Its not often you get a chance to deal with real collectors who want to clear out such rarities.

Quote
I never actually said that 1954 $1 *A/M notes are "commonplace
I know you didn't say the *AM 1954 $1 is commonplace-- & didn't mean to put words in your mouth (dangers of statements put in "black n white" but I'd put my money on those before I'd put them on more PA notes. Again if you got any let us "needy" know about which ones you have before the next catalogue comes out so we can all scramble all over for them! One of the problems with those notes is that so many collectors toute them as low numbered (when there were only 8000 printed) and there's far too many savvy collectors to know this is a bit of a "hard sell" since only 7/8 are above a 1000! (unlike 99% of regular issue).

RP you do make some good points-- no doubt about it.  I don't mean to come off as "confrontational" here-- yes theres some mystery behind some of the notes we've all mentioned here.  I would bank more stock in the value of an *NX $5 than an *RC -- but if anyone has an Beattie Coyne  *RC (or R/C) now there's a kicker!  Would love to score one of those babies!

Yes its all speculation-- and I'm sure the pricing panel would scratch their heads if they actually tune into this forum--- but as Paul says we gotta remember that its the pleasure of collecting -- not just paper trading like on the stock exchange. Hmmmm? (but was that the query what started this thread?)

Ok I'm tired -- its been a long night (I know - weird-- gotta life beyond collecting!) so better shut up and leave it at that.  I'm sure the pricing panel will have the last laugh anyway  (how do these guys get these coveted assignments-- anyone know?)


RS_dude
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« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2006, 02:01:12 am »

 Who says the pricing panel doesn't read this forum?? l see a couple people from the pricing panel taking part in this conversation !   HMMMMMMMM   RS_dude
« Last Edit: June 03, 2006, 02:01:36 am by RS_dude »
alvin5454
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« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2006, 10:58:38 pm »

Dominion notes, particularly above fine but often including lower grades, are selling across every market at a pace that reflects that more people are beginning to appreciate them. Despite their rarity, earlier and higher-grade notes have been under-valued for many years. Even with the steady increases in Charlton prices over the past four or five years, they are still bargains. However, I think Dominion notes will show a strong increase this edition... cheers..
buxvet
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« Reply #22 on: June 03, 2006, 10:59:01 pm »

What about the Devils. It's pretty much a given they are going up. But by how much.
10%, 20%...more ?
buxvet
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« Reply #23 on: June 04, 2006, 12:53:43 am »

And another thing

Why is the 1937 $ 20 Coyne Towers Prefix L/E priced so low compared with it's counterparts

Prefix L/E  -   Run 1,416,000 even less then the Ozzy
Osborne Sig - Run 1,622,000

And  the $ 10 Z/D which granted is only 500,000 is at $ 1000 UNC

Whereas the L/E is +10EF, +25AU, +55UNC from the other Coyne prefixes

The L/E is by far the lowest minted end run or changeover prefix in the entire '37 series beside that Z/D
walktothewater
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« Reply #24 on: June 04, 2006, 04:24:23 pm »

I'm actually surprised that Devil's keep going up.  I thought after last year's increase we'd see them level off (but I doubt it).  There just seems to be no end in sight of demand (for higher grade of course).  

I think the Beattie Coyne asterisk (replacement) notes in all modified 54 series seem a bit low, and could go up considering how seldom we see them.  

I know someone said the AA is seen quite often, and I suppose he's right, but they're the only asterisk of the modified $1 (with this signature-64000), as is the A/B of $2 (22400)and then there's the A/C and R/C of the $5 (16000 and 8000).  I was super happy to get an A/D of the $10 (only 25000) (despite some red ink stain on the borders),  the A/E $20(12000).  Now that asterisks are a thing of the past, I'm a bit surprised that they haven't gone up even more, especially considering the fact that inserts of later issues (in confirmed number ranges) are so steep.

And yes, I would expect all Dominion notes to go up significantly because we see so few UNC and the lower grades should go up as well (esp unpressed original notes).  1935's will probably increase again.



venga50
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« Reply #25 on: June 04, 2006, 07:43:50 pm »

Quote
And another thing

Why is the 1937 $ 20 Coyne Towers Prefix L/E priced so low compared with it's counterparts

Prefix L/E  -   Run 1,416,000 even less then the Ozzy
Osborne Sig
- Run 1,622,000
Dude!  I knew Ozzy Osbourne was old, but I didn't know he was THAT old!  He was a Governor of the Bank of Canada in the 1930s?  Jeez, look at him now!  :o
« Last Edit: June 04, 2006, 07:55:44 pm by venga50 »

buxvet
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« Reply #26 on: June 05, 2006, 05:57:47 pm »

Quote
Quote
And another thing

Why is the 1937 $ 20 Coyne Towers Prefix L/E priced so low compared with it's counterparts

Prefix L/E  -   Run 1,416,000 even less then the Ozzy
Osborne Sig
- Run 1,622,000
Dude!  I knew Ozzy Osbourne was old, but I didn't know he was THAT old!  He was a Governor of the Bank of Canada in the 1930s?  Jeez, look at him now!  :o


LMAO
I gotta a great laugh out of that
walktothewater
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« Reply #27 on: June 05, 2006, 10:46:29 pm »

I'm sure J.A.C. Osborne would look about the same as the infamous permanently stoned rocker if he were dug up today! :o

The past comments outline just a few of the inconsistencies that can be found in Charlton.  I for one would love to see more editions to the last section of the book which covers errors and special serial numbers.  More details need to be added to the many kind of errors we see today, and there should be more added about certain serial numbers that people will pay a premium on (eg rotators or "near solids," numbers with excess zeros such as 0100000, repeaters: 9870987 and so on).  

Short prefix runs such as the 1975 Lawson/Bouey HD $50 or the Crow/Bouey EHF are not seen on the market like all the other prefixes (and should be accorded some premium like the Birds $50 FMF.  The lower grade 2 letter prefix should be valued higher AU=$150 not lower than the 3 letter $50 AU=$175 when 36 M compared to 56 million notes were printed (if you take both signatures L/B and C/B -- 3 letter prefixes are 136 M or 4 times as common as the 2 letter variety!)  I just use this note as an example since we see it traded and sold so often (esp the 3 letter prefix).  The pricing just doesn't seem realistic.

Charlton needs to reflect the current reality of the paper money market.  for instance you would never know that current 2001 Journey notes are so popular and demand such high prices if you were to look at the 2006 edition, and I doubt the new 2007 will truly reflect the demand. The Birds series were issued in such vast quanitities with great paper quality so their wear and tear is less.  We should see increases in the $5.00 too -- but not much on their inserts since there seems to be so many insert ranges since 2004.  Do the pricing panel tune into what is hot on eBay and not just live auctions?

It makes me wonder.  RSdude (nice handle by the way!) claims the pricing panel do tune into this... hmmm?

It seems that there is a certain "old guard" who insist on assigning values to notes regardless of the market reality.  I'm sure many on the panel are the same dealers who turn their noses up at rare Journey notes.  They just see the colour of the note and pass it on!  Perhaps I'm being unfair.  Perhaps Charlton is just barely keeping up with the new technology/current info. I imagine the quanity of information is indeed overwhelming for them to process.   And I guess the bottom line is: most collectors are in it for the "long haul" so that market fluctations, pricing guide adjustments, etc, are NOT going to phase them.  

I will remain unsurprised by next year's (soon to be released) guide. That's my stance & I'm stickin to it!

PS: the new numbering system of the errors in the back section is a welcome addition!
« Last Edit: June 05, 2006, 10:48:40 pm by walktothewater »

walktothewater
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« Reply #28 on: June 05, 2006, 11:01:52 pm »

I just visited www.chartlonpress.com and discovered that most short prefixes, change-overs, 1935's, and so on have increased in value.  They have been working on the short prefixes for some time.  Its an interesting overview of what the new edtion contains.   Special comment was made how all replacements have increased in value (low and high condition), as well as the last Journey $10  prefixes.  I guess you're right RSdude -- they do tune into this forum!
 :-?
Now: after my long winded "diatribe" on Charlton's shortcomings ... I feel a bit like a donkey's &%$  :-[

To all those in the pricing panel -- my humble apologies!

OleDon
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« Reply #29 on: June 06, 2006, 11:01:31 pm »

Did y'all notice on the Charlton Press web site is a sample page of the new 19th ed with the NEW prices for the 1937 $100's  ???

OleDon
stevepot99
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« Reply #30 on: June 07, 2006, 01:12:04 am »

getting closer to the real prices but 750 for a vf is still half of what many believe it should be worth
buxvet
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« Reply #31 on: June 07, 2006, 05:55:01 pm »

Quote
getting closer to the real prices but 750 for a vf is still half of what many believe it should be worth

A dealer had a vf in Hamilton with no price on it. I asked and he told me $ 1700
stevepot99
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« Reply #32 on: June 07, 2006, 08:03:17 pm »

most of the ones on ebay are asking 1500 for a VF
buxvet
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« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2006, 08:41:08 pm »

Quote
most of the ones on ebay are asking 1500 for a VF


I haven't seen a VF on Ebay latley
PM me a link if there is

Thanks
buxvet
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« Reply #34 on: June 11, 2006, 08:30:48 pm »

Quote
And another thing

Why is the 1937 $ 20 Coyne Towers Prefix L/E priced so low compared with it's counterparts

Prefix L/E  -   Run 1,416,000 even less then the Ozzy
Osborne Sig - Run 1,622,000

And  the $ 10 Z/D which granted is only 500,000 is at $ 1000 UNC

Whereas the L/E is +10EF, +25AU, +55UNC from the other Coyne prefixes

The L/E is by far the lowest minted end run or changeover prefix in the entire '37 series beside that Z/D

I posted about this a while back and no one seemed to have an opinion on it.
Asking again, does anyone think these are under priced ?

I got a BC-25B Prefix H/E in Brantford today. A nice AU/UNC.
Same thing with that prefix, only around 1.4M

on The Charlton press website in the preview write up for the book the first sentence reads....

"The listings have been expanded and updated, keeping the book the most comprehensive work available in its field. All changeover prefixes for Bank of Canada notes have now been listed and individually priced, completing a process which began modestly several years ago with the 1937 issue. There is significant demand for the changeover prefixes, resulting in premium pricing."

Does this mean changeover's have moved up sharply ?
Should They ?
alvin5454
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« Reply #35 on: June 11, 2006, 09:22:54 pm »

Hi: Just a reminder to all paper money fans, and not intending to offend, but paper money is printed, not minted... cheers...
walktothewater
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« Reply #36 on: June 12, 2006, 12:24:36 am »

Quote
Does this mean changeover's have moved up sharply ?
Should They ?
Buxvet

I think to advanced collectors all change-overs will be accorded premium book value (that's what the blurb from Charlton is saying) but whether that translates into reality is another story altogether.  Remember that you are not the "average collector" so if you want to sell a rarer change-over you might have to brace yourself for a luke-warm reception of your note (to the less informed).

However, I believe you are wise in snatching up any change-overs you find, esp if you can get them from coin dealers who are caught napping!  They will certainly be given their proper value eventually.  It may take a year or so for the collecting community (shorter for the dealers) to catch on to these short prefixes (particularly the 37's).  If your into this hobby for the long haul-- you can't go wrong.

Naturally a note's actual market value depends on what's "hot" at any particular time of year.  So far (and I doubt this will change) but demand seems to go in cycles (maybe this is due to the near onslaught of one auction after another!)  Its inversely proportional to what we see being sold (ie: if there's a lot being sold - demand and price sometimes goes down - few sold -demand and price goes up) like any market.  As I'm sure you know it also depends on what dealers are seeing a lot of (whether you'll get someone interested), the press a note receives, and whether dealers deem it hot (it will "move"), if you need to sell in a rush (and you wish to trade or upgrade) etc.  

These days everyone seems to be keen on O/T  1937's and DF's and certain replacements within the 1954 series (at most shows today) and certain MC's replacements, or good-overs (ie L/B EET)  If you got what dealers are looking for-- then you can move it quickly.

There seems to be less demand for regular Multi coloured notes (69/79 $5/$20), Birds (unless they're the AUJ-AUN $2 or CB $5 Blue BPN, or the EVH noBPN $20) than common 37's or 54's (unless they're genuinely UNC).  And yet Multi-coloured notes were all the "rage" a few years ago. In 2004 I got some very good deals on some UNC 37's (alas not O/T) but you could tell the dealer was happy to see them go.  Now people are even buying the C/T signature series if they're in AU to UNC at close to BV.  I've learned that it sometimes pays to "buck" the trend knowing that the cycle will return in favour of whatever issue you're concentrating on.

Bottom line is: do  what you think will work.  Your instincts so far have been "right on the money" and its unlikely they'll fail you when it comes to change-overs.  Your posts reveal that you are a "sharp" collector with insightful thought processes regarding trends and what's collectible!

walktothewater
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« Reply #37 on: June 12, 2006, 12:32:06 am »

I just want to add that change-overs for the 1937 issue seems like a wiser investment than they are for the Birds.  They're also a good investment for the 1954 series (particularly for Beattie/Coyne or Bouey Rasminsky signatures).

However, I haven't seen the $2 EGR or CBH command BV in the past 2 years.  I don't believe all change-overs will increase in demand simply because the book finally acknowledges us collectors' desire for them.  The market reality is that there's  a whole gaggle of paper money collectors out there who couldn't give a r@t's ass about them and will not pay premium for them.  

This, of course, may or may not present an investment opportunity for those of us who consider collecting paper mony not just a "Flash n the pan" pursuit, but I lifetime committment.  (Ha!  and I had so much to say about "hardcore collectors!" LOL ;D ::))

buxvet
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« Reply #38 on: June 12, 2006, 07:40:11 pm »

Thanks for the changeover input walkto

I also have been a buyer of any BC-32b also a low printing short run of 2.8M B/C $ 10 Devil Prefix E/D, which unlike the '37 $ 20 carries a premium in all grades including VG I have found 3 in the last 2-3 months. All VF's In every instance they were priced just a $ 10 Dev No premium at all. Paid 35,35,25. One is a weak Vf, 1 strong VF and one dead on.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2006, 08:17:19 pm by BWJM »
walktothewater
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« Reply #39 on: June 12, 2006, 08:51:28 pm »

Buxvet,

My biggest problem is limited attention span!  :P  (of course limited budget comes in there somewhere too!)

I have caught myself looking at my notes, giving them a closer inspection (have you ever noticed how critical you can be after a show?), and then putting them aside to be traded -- forgetting why I bought them in the first place!  The other problem is I'm typically a more conservative grader than most eBay sellers and even a few dealers at the bourses (why I keep my mouth shut when they grade them!) That means I usually get a bit "short-changed" on a note which is often over-graded.  I suppose I do get the odd properly well graded note at a bargain price so it all works out in the wash!  If only I could learn to keep them for a little longer and stop reaching for some other new interest!

I know I have bought a few DF change-overs yet the only one I have left is a nice EF Beattie/Coyne $2 D/B 2.8 M.  I don't have my book with me but I know I paid well over the BV simply because it was a short prefix and I thought it beats trying to pay for a asterisk (out of my league!) The others I traded (or sold) away forgetting why I collected them in the first place, often seeking a more coveted prize (ie an *NS $5.00 etc)

When I first started collecting 30 years ago: the Devil's face was like the "holy grail" for me and I bought some lousy ones just to have them in my collection.   I  suppose -- once I discovered errors/radars/ and asterisks I tired of the DF's and got rid of them.  Then I got swept up in Devil "mania" and then tired of them again (love hate relationship)!  Finally, I've come to realize there is indeed a world market (and fascination) with them-- so I stocked up on some better examples.  Seeing how the BV just keeps going up-- I wish I only got UNC now (since that's where the greatest increase is seen)!  

I would like to someday acquire a nice example of an B/C $1.00 H/A & T/A as well as the $5 C/C & eventually the E/D you mentioned.  

But that will have to wait until I get over  a major financial hurtle.  It would be nice though if I could snag a few (as you have) before they become truly popular.

buxvet
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« Reply #40 on: June 13, 2006, 10:40:45 pm »

Quote
 

I would like to someday acquire a nice example of an B/C $1.00 H/A & T/A as well as the $5 C/C & eventually the E/D you mentioned.  


I never noticed before, my Coyne Towers Devils Face near Solid Serial # 0400000
I asked about this in what's it worth a while back. It's only a F and mostly was told in that grade the note holds little interest. Anyways it's prefix H/A. I'mmmmmmmm RICH !! -- Changeover City Man ! ;D
buxvet
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« Reply #41 on: June 25, 2006, 11:56:55 am »

Chanegeovers were few and far between at most tables. I usually keep an eye for them and will find at least one or two at a show that has no premium. Don Olmstead had lots all seperated from his usual stock. Incidenatally the ask for a Coyne Towers Devil H/A was $ 170 UNC. Considering the current book value is $ 125 for a regular which will go to proabably $ 140 in the new Charlton I can see the changeover being listed at $ 170.

This was the last show before the new book is supposed to arrive.
buxvet
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« Reply #42 on: June 25, 2006, 12:03:45 pm »

Quote
Quote
I never noticed before, my Coyne Towers Devils Face near Solid Serial # 0400000

I like that serial number!  The grade does impact value, but a note with that serial number should sell itself.  Changeover prefixes don't interest me, though.


I realize they don't interest you on a personal basis. But if you are a frequent seller then you need to be where the market is. I think you will see a big run on changeovers in the next year as people scramble to secure the new listings in the Charlton. Which will then drive up the prices in the 20th edition. Also the Chartered market is primed. But you have said you collect older stuff I bet you are there already ;)
walktothewater
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« Reply #43 on: June 25, 2006, 02:01:46 pm »

The market for change-overs is definitely over-due and a place to be right now.  Since eBay there seems to be a steady influx of regular run of the mill notes.  The odd "FIND" does occur.  Oli1001 found a misplaced SN on a $100 AJX which the seller was not aware of.. and apparently another forum member found a G/R test note off eBay.  However these examples are rare--- so I think every collector who's got some interest in a particular series would be more keen on acquiring a change-over, or at least a decent example of one.

As I wrote in the thread "Change-overs- a tricky decision" I believe the most significant factor influencing the marketability of a change-over is their "neighbour" prefixes.  If there's a large degree of replacements, short prefixes, or other desirable notes to choose from, than change-overs of that particular series might not be so keenly sought after.  

So presently, change-overs in the 37 and 1954 DF series (fewer of the modified) seem to picking up steam. They definitely are scarce.  You don't see them often now.  

Moving to today's notes:  I did not see one $10 2003 BEK nor 1 2004 $5 HOH.  2003 J/D BEK is a first and unique note since its a year change over (like he 2001 FEE), signature change-over (like FEE) and replacement (unlike FEE).  The numbers printed and released are even less than the 01 FEE.  Few HOH have been reported for 2004.  The new policy to imprint the year a note's been printed adds to the excitement of collecting these notes.

It's likely the AZN 2004 $20 will pick up too.  I doubt that the new 2007 Charlton will actually reflect the ture premium on these latest change overs.

« Last Edit: June 25, 2006, 02:03:59 pm by walktothewater »

 

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