Buyer (and seller)Beware!

News: Welcome to the Canadian Paper Money Forum.

.....or maybe this AU.......maybe not.....I.....can........feel the toxic contamination............getting the best.........of...."cough"...."cough".....m..e......

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A) I suspect that the quagmire in Iraq (& trillions poured into it) isn't helping the USD (or its reputation worldwide). 

True enough.The more you print,obviously less value becomes attached to it.
Consider 10,000 consecutive Gem Unc 1935 $2's were found and offered on the market at the same time.Logic dictates that realized prices may fall from current $1800.00 per.

The usd has quietely been taken off its lofty perch as the reserve currency of the world.I stated this fact at the CPMF when it was trading $1.32,now trading $1.13.

This is a complex issue,far to involved to dissect here.Collectors need to be aware that holding paper notes in usd is going to hurt them financially.
Why buy 10 UNc 1937 $1's at $700usd x $1.1380 = $796.60 CND presently when in the near future holding those same notes will drop in value for Canadian dollar purchasers to,say $700 X $1.01=$707 CND.

Im being very kind to the usd in the above example-it's going a h-ell of a lot lower than that.


And that's the bottom line

[I've been saying that about weather forecasters for the last 30 years. Despite vastly improved computer technology weather forecasting is still no more reliable than it ever was, just as financial forecasting is no more reliable than it ever was. If financial forecasting were so reliable it would have been able to predict previous stock market crashes before they occurred! /quote]

This is where the example used above is like comparing "apples to oranges" to quote a cliche.
Weather forecasters use "tools" that perdict future events.
Financial "trends" are not perdictions, "tools" are used  along with sentiment,and various other factors to evaluate the PAST and look at where the future may be headed.When a large boulder is rolling downhill,you'd better get out of it's path or you'll be crushed.

If financial forecasting were so reliable it would have been able to predict previous stock market crashes before they occurred

Again,this statement is false--EVERY,and I mean EVERY stock market crash has been perdicted.BubbleVision, as we in the currency and stock markets call CNBC,will not give you this information.It is contrary to their very existence.You just have to know where to get the information,but most important of all....You have to listen.

I sold ALL USD holdings at $1.57 give or take,think I listened?

In the case of the US$, with all the friends the US has made amongst oil-producing nations, it is conceivable that one day oil may come off a US$ standard and go to a EURO standard.  This may be responsible for the technical breakdown of many supports for the US$ against most currencies.

You're getting close jasper!
Iran has/is scheduled to sell its oil in Euros,Russia the same.China has started to buy oil in Euros,diverting one of the largest hoards of usd$ in history-about One Trillion dollars.
Saddam Husssien had started to sell oil in Euros just before he was invaded.

Several other nations are doing or are about to do the same.

The dollar tried hard to look good but instead fell flat on its face. All the King’s men CANNOT put the Humpty Dumpty Dollar back together again. USDX .8057 is the next dollar stop. It would be an extremely bad indication if .8057 turns out simply to be a number that gets passed as the dollar drops right by it. The dollar then is weaker than even I feel.
 Let the market tell us rather than the other way around.

To anyone who wants to boycott auctions listed in US dollars, I say more power to ya.  Please boycott anything and everything you possibly can.  Just leaves more for the rest of us.  Less competition means cheaper goods for me.

uhhh,,.,yeah...well...good luck with that...

I predict that ECA prefix 1973 $1 notes will reach $50 each in VG by the end of the year.

Now I wonder how many of you are thinking "what does he know that I don't???"...

OK, so Hudson just called me a minute ago asking (in a very serious tone) what the inside info was on the ECA notes...

He'll be bringing the donuts to our Sarcasm Class next Tuesday. I've reserved him a seat right up front. He's got some studying to do. LOL

I will bring a box of latex gloves and a brick of 1973 $1.00 notes so we don't get contaminated while searching for radars in the classroom!

FRIEDSQUID

I definitely have to brush up on sarcasm detection.  Boy I was excited! You had me going!! 

...
Who ever owns the media controls what info gets out.  What's in their best interest probably beats their concern for yours and mine.  Oh well, at least we can do is be aware of that.
Later!

Um.........


While I do participate in auctions listed in US dollars, I simply convert
my bid. I decide my highest offer in CAD$ do the math and bid accordingly.
Wether the exchange is 1.61 or 1.01.

A castastrophic collaspe of the US$ would certainly have repercussions on the world economy. However your "Beware" scenario can be simply be rectified by by bidding -exchange

Um.........


While I do participate in auctions listed in US dollars, I simply convert
my bid. I decide my highest offer in CAD$ do the math and bid accordingly.
Wether the exchange is 1.61 or 1.01.

A castastrophic collaspe of the US$ would certainly have repercussions on the world economy. However your "Beware" scenario can be simply be rectified by by bidding -exchange

I think this is what we all do.

Twoinvallarta, why do you refer to holding Canadian notes in US$? The Charlton reference in C$ is the standard. The Pick catalogs are not really used so any Canadian note bought in US$ and held is essentially a conversion of US$ into C$ unless you live in Canada and it then is a conversion from C$ into US$ back into C$.  If the US$ slid while holding the bought Canadian note, that money is protected from the decline in the US$ unless the slide is so severe as to affect the world economy (eg like the Russian or Asian currency crisis) in which case, no one is thinking about collecting notes.

I'll see your "Um....... ,and raise to " What?!"

I simply convert
my bid. I decide my highest offer in CAD$ do the math and bid accordingly.
Wether the exchange is 1.61 or 1.01.

That may be ok for today but what about tomorrow.You'd have to be financially in-ept to continue to operate that way.(that is a general comment,not directed at anyone personally)For instance if the exchange is 1.61 that you use on todays bid,yet several years from now the exchange you MUST use is 1.01,you're kinda out 50 plus percent?

However your "Beware" scenario can be simply be rectified by by bidding -exchange

Not with a falling currency,do you understand a depreciating dollar,what the implications are for holding said dollar?
Time is your enemy with a falling currency.
Was it better to hold USD in the late 70's,the 80's,the 90's and 2000-2001 than the Canadian dollar as an investment,and wealth appreciation?You bet it was.

Now your better holding the cando and Euro,so buy notes in $C and Euro if you wish maximum return and worry free nights
I think the ones really hurting are Canadian dealers in USD denominated  that have held notes over the last few years.

jasper.
Read my prior posts to see where I think the usd is headed.I have given examples where Canadians buying Canadian notes denominated in USD will be bleeding soon enough-the longer they hold 'em the worse the loss.

I have seen cancelled purchases for Canadian notes on our "favorite" auction site,denominated in usd,where the purchaser has received refunds up to $400cnd less than they paid within 3-4 days.Why,The usd fell b4 the refund was received ...

Yeah Brent ....cut it out!
friedsquid too?!!

I do believe we now have the legal definition of a conspiracy.

I find a lot of comments on this thread interesting (if not at least quite amusing PD!)

A close foriegn friend (who is an economist) predicted a very similar scenario before the war in Iraq (almost as if he new the US (the only major super-power) couldn't resist the temptation to damn itself).   He's always said that the Cdn $ should be performing a lot better than it did (that the US was holding it back).  Canada has more fresh water than 50% of all the world's nations combined (let alone oil, natural gas, gold, diamonds, wood, silver, etc).  As a nation we're incredibly wealthy (in many more ways than just its natural resources too).

Just think about the real estate market here.  Although it has slowed down a little, many TO neighbourhoods put a house up and it ends up selling for 40-60 G's more than it was listed (an automatic bidding frenzy occurs).  Calgary is even hotter. Now look south and you can see a very depressed real estate market barely afloat.  

The hubris of the US administration is truly astounding for most involved in assessing world politics. There seems to be no end in sight.  You add all the recent folly in the middle east with global warming and there's no way the North American economies can continue on a sustainable grow grow scale while pumping tonnes and tonnes of hydrocarbons into the atmosphere.  

However, I wouldn't throw the towel in just yet.  Just like women who wine about meeting a nice "gentleman," and yet secretly crave a "bad boy" everyone seems to look up to the US with mixed fear/disgust/admiration.  There's something seductive about power.  Probably why the US $ hasn't had a major meltdown just yet!  All the kids on the block are still holding their breath to see what's gonna happen next. They're the "bad boys" everyone wants a piece of, and we're the gentlemen who can get some of the "go-between" action.

If you look back in history, there's been many a "mess" that looked incredibly dire (& unsalvagable), that ended up better in the long run.  If we were to assess things in the middle of either world wars we'd be pretty pessimistic and yet things didn't turn out so bad after all.  The same can be said for the Cuban missile crisis, and the condition of people world wide (before hygiene, vaccinations, etc).  

As Ottawa has said "things go in cycles" and I'd agree that while things may look bleak right now...there's a possibility that the US could bounce back.  And as you suggest "2-n-V" maybe we haven't seen the bottom hit yet either.  But what if the US diverted its military muscle to a more worthy cause (such as rebuilding small African nations, environmental projects, or New Orleans?)