Buyer (and seller)Beware!

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I'm against sellers selling notes in USD for some time,especially if said dealers are hoarding notes bought in this doomsday currency.The USD has lost all support technically,and you had better divest yourself of it or be prepared to lose another 25-40% in the next year or two.This could be devastating,but if your a Canadian collector, buying paper currency or coin in the cando will become more and more attractive as the days wear on,be patient.

The $USD Black Hole of Calcutta, defined as .8230 support fell overnight and thru today like a hot knife thru butter.  Soon you will be looking back at 1.36 on the euro.

The US dollar is headed for .7200, the euro to $1.36, a quick hard down, and then well beyond on the upside. Gold is going to $761 but that is only for starters.

As we told our clients .8208 the dollar goes bye bye.Sure enough that fell quickly today as well.. Next stop the battle at the bridge of .8057. Once again if it gives up the ghost at .8057 then .5600 is the downside target. If it puts up more of a fight then .8230 did then .7200 is the pull.

Take a look at the 1month,3month,and 1 year chart of the USD.I have not seen a chart this ugly since Enron.


Finex close 81.93-- $1.13778, several years ago it was $1.6165.

You aint seen nuthin' yet folks!

I thought the C$ was a reflection of oil prices.  As Canada exports oil, with the demand for oil, does that not create a demand for the C$. Technical analysis aside, is the C$ not strong more based on these fundamentals?

I wish I had a dime for every financial prediction I ever heard

BubbleVision,CNBC,ect and such are un-educated buffoons imo.

This thread is for educating collectors  about their investment ,be it coins or paper money.And like practically everything you state,it is just an opinion,not investment advice.
If you doubt my conclusions look at history and a chart.
The dollar was $1.61 to buy a usd several years ago.Suppose you bought a Canadian 1935 $2.00 Unc at $1150usd.That note cost you $1851.00 Canadian several years back.You are adamant about Charlton pricing,so this note is now worth $1800.Canadian dollars according to all that you write.
Well my argumentitive friend,after several years of holding this note in US funds ...YOU ARE STILL NOT EVEN!!  DARN!

Oil at $120? Maybe ,maybe not,but We dont collect oil here.I can argue a price and it sure as h--ell aint $63.00 pb..But i digress....

If you're wrong, what then?

Im not.
If Im right collectors need a heads up.

In case you missed it the $USD has fallen some 33% over the last 2 years.Uhhh,you think that's piddly? Not worthy of collectors attention.It has fallen 45% from its highs,if I'm holding notes in USD,that's not worth our attention? HuH?

Let's close this rediculous thread.

Ridiculous??  To close this discussion because you say so,based on your false conclusions,now thats ridiculous

I thought the C$ was a reflection of oil prices.  As Canada exports oil, with the demand for oil, does that not create a demand for the C$. Technical analysis aside, is the C$ not strong more based on these fundamentals

Hi jasper.Yes indeed.The petrodollar puts the"cando" in demand,butthat is not the only driving force.Mining,resources.REM's andlumber are some other factors driving the canukbuck north.
I think the question though should be,what is driving the us dollar south against most currencies world-wide?
It has broken all support,and if you understand markets and cycles,that is what will keep you in financial health.If I was American,I'd Canadian and Euros as a diversification.Of course there was a time when buying the USD was a great tool for increased wealth.
An extremely important factor to consider when purchasing,and holding Canadian paper money bought in US Dollars

The C$ has always been undervalued so it is no surprise to see the rise. Certainly it would be foolish to bet against the technicals as I guess that is a quantitative way of capturing sentiment.  The stock market meltdown taught us all to respect technical analysis.

An extremely important factor to consider when purchasing,and holding Canadian paper money bought in US Dollars

That has been one of the best parts of collecting Canadian paper money.   

I wish I had a dime for every financial prediction I ever heard.

There's no accountability for people who make bold predictions, so that's why they make 'em.  And why I don't listen to them.

I predict that ECA prefix 1973 $1 notes will reach $50 each in VG by the end of the year.

Now I wonder how many of you are thinking "what does he know that I don't???"...

[edit]NOTICE!!! The above is 100% completely SARCASM. There is nothing, I repeat, NOTHING special about ECA prefix $1 notes. At least two people have been independently caught hook, line and sinker taking the above prediction seriously.[/edit]

I predict that ECA prefix 1973 $1 notes will reach $50 each in VG by the end of the year.

Now I wonder how many of you are thinking "what does he know that I don't???"...

BC46b 1973 $1.00 notes Prefix range ECA-ECU Crow Bouey currently catalogue at $4.00 in UNC.  There was a total print of 180,000,000 notes in this prefix range. However it was recently discovered the the ECA range which was believed to consist of 15,000,000 notes of which over 12,000,000 were immediately pulled due to  a toxin found in the ink.  This was not announced to the public until bulletin #245BC34A -23 was released at a private conference in Ottawa today.
From the 3,000,000 remaining notes over 2.5 million were treated with a chemical solution to avoid any contamination that may have gone into the fibres. Thereby immediately deteriorating the notes to an extra fine condition at best. Of these .5 million left, the Bank of Canada heldback approximately .3 million notes as a precaution.  Into circulation is less than .2 million notes and how many are actually in an AUnc condition.  This is obviously why the VG codition will get to $50 or more by the end of the year. 

FRIEDSQUID

I predict that ECA prefix 1973 $1 notes will reach $50 each in VG by the end of the year.

Now I wonder how many of you are thinking "what does he know that I don't???"...

Da mn! There they go again.Proving knowledge is power.
I'd never call something or a subject ridiculous that I know nothing about.

Astounding Brent-but given your KNOWLEDGE of notes,the hobby,BOC history,and so much more I aint bettin' against you.

Thanks friedsquid

You've given me an education today!

I

I'll be away for awhile-- have to go.... "shopping".

I admit I don't know much  about the stock market, etc, but here's my 2 cents just the same on the Canadian and US dollars.

A) I suspect that the quagmire in Iraq (& trillions poured into it) isn't helping the USD (or its reputation worldwide). 
B) the weak USD doesn't help the Cdn dollar because our economies are so intertwined
C) the construction boom is still raging in ON, as is the oil boom in ALTA... I just hope they continue (with low unemployment), and that the Cdn economy kicks along as steady as she does..

So with our robust economy why isn't our dollar performing better?  Our dollar has been traditinoally undervalued & should be rising all the time!  But it doesn't because like the US (who's pouring trillions of USD after poorly spent USD's) we're pouring billions of CDN $ into military operations in Afghanistan.  I suppose the only consolation is that at least we're somewhat admired for the way Cdn forces are subtly re-building a nation and gaining international credibility as "peace keepers."  But being so tied into the US there's a price to be paid...and I think our dollar will always be rather soft compared to international currency.

I my opinion I think da US buck is going down the longer they stay involved with Iraq. The $C not as bad. Why you say?

I believe its the quality BC Bud or any BUD from Canada going to the US mon. Can't kept dem American folks from smokin up. Our salmon belongs to dem, dey no want our wood, BC's a no mining zone. So do we make money on our good looks? No, no, no... dey want the Bud and that's what keeps BC in da black mon.

Just to let you know, My little lady and I live in a smoke free home mon.  

PD

There's no accountability for people who make bold predictions, so that's why they make 'em.

I've been saying that about weather forecasters for the last 30 years. Despite vastly improved computer technology weather forecasting is still no more reliable than it ever was, just as financial forecasting is no more reliable than it ever was. If financial forecasting were so reliable it would have been able to predict previous stock market crashes before they occurred! Forecasting (weather, stock markets, currency exchange rates, political polls, etc.) is a big business in and of itself and that's why there's so much of it everywhere you look.

And lest we forget, financial forecasting definitely has a significant influence on how people react (the "herd instinct") and therefore on the markets themselves, which is not the case with the weather!

More to the point as far as this thread is concerned, the herd instinct applies equally well to the paper money market and my guess is that a lot of people are now going to be actively searching for those elusive $1 1973 ECA prefixes that BWJM generously brought to our attention ..... 

I predict that ECA prefix 1973 $1 notes will reach $50 each in VG by the end of the year.

Now I wonder how many of you are thinking "what does he know that I don't???"...

Da mn! There they go again.Proving knowledge is power.
I'd never call something or a subject ridiculous that I know nothing about.

Astounding Brent-but given your KNOWLEDGE of notes,the hobby,BOC history,and so much more I aint bettin' against you.

Just goes to show that sometimes there may be a fact that is not widely appreciated that may gradually be responsible for a trend. I think the market behavior may capture this, causing prognosticators to make all sorts of predictions while in the background there may be a real reason why something is behaving that way.  In the case of the US$, with all the friends the US has made amongst oil-producing nations, it is conceivable that one day oil may come off a US$ standard and go to a EURO standard.  This may be responsible for the technical breakdown of many supports for the US$ against most currencies.

I wish I had a dime for every financial prediction I ever heard.  US or Canadian dime, it doesn't matter to me!  I'd be rich either way.  Every time a market starts to move in a certain direction, the media can always count on finding "talking heads" who will make outlandish predictions.  When the Canadian dollar was at 62 cents U.S., I heard these guys saying "Get ready for the 50-cent dollar".  Now it's 88 cents and the talking heads are saying "Get ready for parity between US and Canadian currency".  I'm still waiting for oil to hit $120 per barrel; it hasn't happened despite guarantees that it would.

If you're right, I'll say "good for you".  If you're wrong, what then?  There's no accountability for people who make bold predictions, so that's why they make 'em.  And why I don't listen to them.

Let's close this rediculous thread.

RP, I think these discussions, while off-topic are very relevant to any collector who collects something that costs money.  It would be very naive to assume that for CDN paper money, the buyers are all in Canada so who cares what the C$ does relative to other currencies.  We are not privy to knowing who buys a lot of CDN paper money at the major auctions but it may surprise some to find out that much of the material sold at these auctions is actually leaving or has left Canada.  Look at ebay and in terms of $ value of auctions, I would bet that at least 25% of CDN paper money bought is sold to buyers outside Canada largely because CDN paper money is still cheap relative to US and other international paper money. This is not just my opinion but also that of other American dealers/collectors who are still net buyers of Canadian paper money.  For those of us who earn our living in currencies other than C$, and who are collectors, it is VERY relevant what the C$ does in the long term.  I would bet that if the C$ were sliding every day, there would be significantly less demand for Canadian paper money at least from outside Canada. And seeing as these collectibles sell at auction, if the high bidder or second-highest bidder pulls out, well prices plunge.

Well I'll just have to wait for the next 5 Charltons to about this UNC......

Denis


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