Bricks. Why Replacement Notes are sometimes not cheap.

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Well, everyone wants to know. Why when "the list" comes out are some replacements at $100 or higher even.  Below describes an aspect that goes beyond the actual rarity of the note (ie there were "xy found"). Some stuff that many people may not have thought about before.  I know I never did...

Question: What is with these prices?

The answer: You need to factor in the cost of doing the research.
Cost A: Paying the fees to buy the bricks.
Cost B: Taking the Time to do it all (can be several hours in a day)
Cost C: Transportation to and from banks, gas cost.
Cost D: Transaction fees, based on Dollar amount of cash. (Alot more than going over your monthly withdrawal limit)
Cost E: time cost in inputting here and sending it off to the appropriate people/place.
Cost F: Goodwill costs, such as buying a few rounds when the time is right.

I may have missed some.
These costs add up.

Here is a week of mine.  I found in total, I think 7 or 10 replacements  (yes, replacements), inserted into the bricks (how they got the name "insert note").  These replacements were all AOK or AOH.  The info has been already sent to sudzee and Gilles.


Okay- Week commencing March 27th, through to March 31st of this year. 
Brick info.  Note: all info has been sent prior to this post.
March 27th.
BTE 9600 70/70
BTE 9601 96/84
BTE 9602 85/90
BTE 9603 68/63
AOR 5245 ____ (forgot to get FP/BP) - 3 AOK REPLACEMENTS
ALS 1146
ALS 1147 (again forgot FP/BP for these bricks)
Total: $85,000.
My cost of ordering alone: $77

March 28:
AOR 5247 73/62, 3 AOK REPLACEMENTS
AOJ 6152 95/65, 1 AOH REPLACEMENT
AOH 9664 92/87, couple AOH replacements
AOJ ____ didnt even record it.  Either rushed or an empty brick.
Total: $20,000
My cost of ordering alone: $0.00 (luck helps)

March 29th
ALS 1108 87/92
ALS 1109 86/97
ALS 1839 84/96
BTE 7272 95/65
BTE 7273 91/82
BTE 7274 80/59
BTE 7275 69/57
BTE 7209 89/89
AOP 7419 57/69
AHF 9126800-999 60/94
BKM 6908000-499 99/99
Total: $175,000
My cost of ordering alone: $95.70

March 30th
ALS 1556 56/74
ALS 1557 63/68
ALS 1558 90/85
ALS 1559 84/96
ALS 1837 63/68
ALS 1838 90/85
AOP 8751 79/75
AOJ 7420 65/95
AHF 9202 73/62
BKM 6909 89/89
Total: $275,000
My cost of ordering alone: $88.00

March 31st:
BTE 7210 83/71
BTE 7211 62/73
BTF 5815 81/66
BTF 5814 67/88
BTF 5813 93/98
BTF 5812 94/60
ALS 1580 65/95
ALS 1581 82/91
ALS 1582 72/61
ALS 1583 75/79
Total: $180,000
My cost of ordering alone: $110.00


Okay so for the week, that means I handled $735,000.00
My out of pocket costs, ONLY factoring in Cost A: $370.70.
If I knew the other costs to the penny I would probably break out in tears.  (Sad but true).


I found: a lot of radars, and a couple of rotators.

I found: a couple of AOH or AOK replacements.
I found: out enough potential "sheet replacement" info to cover reams of notes with a face value of at least 11 MILLION dollars. That is all without finding a single replacement.  ($11 Million is the face value of all the notes in all the reams considered).
Of course, single note replacements area different animal, and I am not going to explain that here.

So, here is the question: 
Will I make my money back?   After Costs A through F, probably not even close.

Are replacement /brick hunters justified in their initial prices?  
Well, look at the cost.
Gilles mentions this in a line in his quarterly newsletter. It wasn't until I had this one particular week when I realized that it costs a ton of money to do this.

Nevermind the cost of foregone interest or return on investment.  Yikes.

If this rate keeps up, will brick searchers back out?  Which brick searchers will be left- what does thatmean for amount of replacements to be found and recovered?

Anyway, Just something to think about.

I agree, It is costly but on the other side of the bill,

"You can't put a price on the pursuit of knowledge."
              Probably quoted by some mon who had lotsa bucks.

So why do I we do it?   

The joy of the hunt.
Hopefully followed by the joy of a find.
You must have found an equal number of repeaters with the radars.
The satisfaction of having gathered a lot of good data on behalf of all collectors.
And you simply enjoy this hobby.

"A bit crazy helps" PD 

Well PD, your right. On all of those points. Especially the "crazy" part. 

Where on the earth you find the time to do all this research? ,

You have handled more than 40 bricks in that week.  Counting 1 hour per brick, it takes more than 40 hours....without counting the time you takes to go to the banks...I can understand if you are on retirement...but if you're on a 9-5 schedule, I don't really see...

Without counting that you must have a very good credit line... so adding to the already mentionned costs, you pay the interests on your loan... . 

Unless you're a millionnaire

It was on spring break.  So no work (but it was probably the most exhausting week of my life).
And when you get empty bricks, it can take as little as 10 minutes to do agood check.  Just keep the radar and you have all the info you need.
Millionaire? I wish.  Sometime luck helps.  See "Cost F" 

It is a tough thing.... It is like searching for the meaning of life and your picking up the tab! 

I must also say that MANY people are not so fortunate with their costs to get bricks and some people will pay that much for a single brick.

Everyone MUST remember that if bricks searchers slow down or stop then who is left to research replacements? BoC Sure won't say a peep about it! 

I agree prices have gotten quite high very quickly but all factors do need to be taken into account. As we press on further we will be finding less and less Inserts. This is only the tip of the iceberg here. Rigth now you can easily go through 80 Bricks of $10's with out finding a single Insert and $20's are almost the same.

Just give it some time and $5 will be in the same boat.... You can blame the printers for doing such on an outstanding job printing error-free notes!   

Good point too.  Hobby ==> Not forced. lol.  True true true.  I'm going for a beer.

Very True...

No Brick Searching = No Inserts Found

No Inserts Found = No Insert Ranges

No Inserts Ranges = The end of Inserts

No Pressure.... 

It's very true that's a choice, I'm myself a small brick researcher, but it's my choice.  But since the time I do this research, I'm not sure that I got the breakeven point...It's the pleasure to find something interesting that pays for all the trouble...more than the cash I can have for it.

And I know very well that it's very frustrating if you go through tens of bricks without finding any better than a 3-digit radar.  At least, with the BABN, you're sure to get a radar note. It's better than nothing.  The CBN were more frustrating because of the mixed-up bricks  where you're were even not sure to get a radar note.  But we could find a lot more replacement notes in the CBN bricks.  With the BABN, the inserts will be much more rarer, so the prices of the BABN insert notes will stay high...

 I guess the cost of searching will have something to do with the asking price of an insert but really the value of an insert is determined more by supply and demand. If there were 10 times more searchers than the asking price of most inserts would have to drop just to get rid of them all.

 Some of the scarcer prefix inserts are higher priced because there are more collectors needing the note to complete there sets of one of each insert than there are the amount of notes available.

I don't really collect inserts much because there seems to be a possiblity of error or fraud. I remember a member of this forum saying that he got a brick of GPZ and they were all above 9.0 mil. So 1000 inserts in sequence?

Plus I could have a note with the number
AOB 2308709 and it's valued at $200 but if the number is
AOB 2208709 it's valued at $16. I don't know about that.

Just a few of my thoughts on this. I do have a few inserts BTW.



 

I have been searching bricks for a time before joining this forum but it really was my intention to look for errors as opposed to inserts.  I never really knew much about them because the only time replacements meant anything was when a note had an asterisk on it.  I guess the concern I would have collecting them is the fact that the range can seem to change as well as the amount of individual ranges so I would think the some notes unless kept may eventually be in the insert range but not known at that time.  Unfortunately not all of us can keep everything we find in hopes that the future finds turn our notes into something others actually want.  The other question that Gary brought out is fraud. I have found some ALK inserts in an ALR brick but as of yet no one else has found any.  My understanding is that unless someone else confirms this then they are not looked at as inserts.  So do I keep them in hopes that somewhere down the road someone else finds some to confirm my find or do I spend them.  As of now I will hang onto them since I know what I found but only time will tell.
And as for Hudsons' comments searching bricks can be costly for sure especially in my area being a rural community banks can be 30-45 minutes away and rural branches are reluctant to deal with a large cash transaction because most branches here have less than a $3000 on hand balance and robberies are very common (6 in the last 4 months). So in most cases you have to deal with multiple banks with different delivery dates in different towns. But it is true that no one forces you to brick search but sometimes the one time you find a true treasure makes it worth while.
Only my opinion.  (Oh yeah brick searchers are all retired millionaires.  I WISH)

FRIEDSQUID

Yes supply ultimately has something to do with it.

Here is the thing. Some people saw inserts as easy money, thus searching AND immediate selling occured.  We have all witnessed that to some degree.

This next thing drives me up the frikin wall.

WHY is there confusion about whether or not a range is a range.  Gilles doesn't just sit there and invent them.  This is what my papers addressed.  I am making a more reader friendly version as we speak so people can easily understand why a note that may be XXXXXX apart from another was printed in a regular note and not an insert, or why they both may be.

possibility of error or fraud

To speak to this, there are enough people on the horn to GP to let him know if things don't make sense. 

A FRAUDULENT insert claim will outright contradict the gathered info of a ream.  You CANNOT hide it, and pretend that it is "okay".   The matrix I developed was for that purpose- so all of you out there could see that fraudulent claims will be disproven.  The trick is, you have to learn how to understand the tables.  I bet you I could count on two hands the number of people who actually went through the article to really understand it.  That is why I built it, so that there would be some PEACE in knowing that fraudulent claims would not hold up to the logic. 

An ERROR in claim... well thats why there has to be verification. 

AOB 2308709 and it's valued at $200 but if the number is
AOB 2208709 it's valued at $16. I don't know about that.

Okay let us look at the facts:  Suppose these were both inserts from a ream of notes where the ENTIRE ream was used as replacements.
That means there had to be 100,000 notes at least all within that ream. 

Were AOB $5s printed in reams of 100,000 or greater? If the answer is No, then we know they came from different printing reams. Which means: that is one ream was set aside for replacements, then you can only include the notes from THAT particular ream.  Not the reams above or below it, or even 100,000 away.

 PLEASE please please read the article.  It talks about this.


Especialy now, since we have the BABN note printing method NAILED - well to the degree that we need for determining replacements and ream size.

Okay now I am just going to chill out and relax, and finish making my presentation- so that I could give it to someone who has never seen a banknote before - and that they would understand what the heck is going on.  That is my goal, wish me luck.

There are always "weird" things that happen.  Don't know why, but look at the facts.  There is alot of work that needs to be undermined before any faith in the legitimacy of replacements should be cast - in particular sheet replacements. The Single note replacements, I do not have data for to make a comment.

IF IT A TOO OF RANGE INSERT THERE THE PRICE WILL GO DOWN AND IT WILL HAVE LESS OF COLECTIONNEUR

That is not true entirely.

How many were found in UNC?

Forget inserts, look at BER 2003!  There is a range of "over 7 million" but HOW MANY were found?   That is an extreme example, and inserts are no different.

there is one BER 2003, not 3-4 or 6 range

BER 2003 Confirmed by the BoC  is good
BER 2004 Confirmed by the BoC  is good
BER 2004  9.675M - 9.720M  one range not Confirmed by the BoC 
 is good

HOH 2004 Confirmed by the BoC  is good
HOH 2005 Confirmed by the BoC  is good
HOH 2005 7.060M - 7.100M
HOH 2005 9.000M - 9.060M
HOH 2005 9.120M - 9.160M
HOH 2005 9.200M - 9.400M
HOH 2005 9.440M - 9.680M
HOH 2005 9.760M - 9.840M
HOH 2005 9.880M - 9.920M  not Confirmed by the BoC
not good

All the sound & fury that still rages over "inserts."

It still amazes me that asterisk and X designated replacements are as cheap as they are (considering they're one of a kind, and we'll never see them again). 

Well I guess if I have to concern myself over modern notes, I would definitely seek:  2002 AOF or 2004 HOH $5
for $10's  2001 K/T FDZ, K/D 2001 FEE, 2003 J/D BEL, BEK, BEP or 03 BER 04 BER/BET simply because theyre all short runs... no dispute about it.  Only the 2004 BEY /FEV are of any interest to me...though it seems to be the case for a million other collectors who have them.

Like Gary T, I have a few inserts, but I certainly don't consider them my "show-stopper" notes!

I love free market. No one truly "knows" for sure what is going to happen.

The SAD thing about it, is that now today more than ever, the journey replacements are based on FACT and not estimation.  It drives me nuts that the word "best guesses" is used in a recent letter. 
Lost in translation perhaps...  they are now based on HARD evidence.

Replacements are not a guessing game.  They might have been educated estimates in the past, but the $5s have been figured out, as have the $10s, $20s, $50s, and $100s.  Guess that is all of them.  And that is for Both printing companies too.

We KNOW the ream sizes and layout. Both companies.  This is not guessing at all.
Therefore sheet finds (which are hardly found at all now) determine EXACTLY a range.  Similarily, a pure or mixed mother brick  can determine a ream that was for regular notes.  It is as simple as that.

I know you can tell some frustration in my words in this thread, and that is for this reason:  I worked long hard hours many many nights to get Gilles the Black Box research papers before his March newsletter would go out, and it got to him on the last day.   Revisions had to be made in some areas as you know from the prior letter.  Gilles spent a long hard time re-analyzing his data with the Matricies I developed.  many hours right before the letter went to the printers.  And that was so the collecting body would have the most accurate numbers possible.  I didn't forsee that many changes. Perhaps about 10-15 or so.   GP has the info dating back to other stuff that I do not have, and he made the decision to update many ranges for the benifit of collectors. 
It was a transition from having very good estimates to having ranges based on Factual evidence.
Are the ranges going to change again? NO.  They went from being best estimates to being based on hard evidence and fact. Yes I used the word fact.

This is the main point:
We in fact know a ream size, from first number to last number.
THUS
We in fact know a replacement ream range, from first number to last number.
AND
We in fact know a non-replacement ream range, from first number to last number.


As more reams are discovered, the ranges that are determined do not change.... they may have an adjacent ream designated as replacements, of course, as replacements are found.  This is the result of continued research on notes.


So.....  now I am hearing about people who feel on edge about this because they think the ranges are innacurate or could change again or are made up or whatever.  This dissappoints me because this is probably the most well researched part of collecting right now, yet because someone said "this" or someone said "that", some people are willing to take that with higher meaning than ALL the factual information that it is built on.

Our hobby would also survive if people didn't collect radars, changeovers, or even prefixes in particular.  What I want to know is IF you think replacements are bulls**t, I want to know WHY. I am sitting here defending them with a solid case built, and the nay-sayers have what to go on?  (PS:Moderators, the filter doesn't pick up "bulls**t")

Second, if anyone can find a note
BEY 2005 forward, or
ALB 4Million or forward, OR
any BABN Upgraded $5
that does not fall into a 40/on matrix as described in any one of my papers, or the 5/on miniature reams,

I will give $100 by EMT to the first person who can find one.

There is my challenge to all of you.

TO GIVE ME YOUR ADDRESS PLEASE

Roberto- this includes the miniature reams, which are grouped together to form 40,000.

PS: I re-posted that BABN $10 info for you (and others).

Send me what you have... and I will check it.

I think they should just do away with all replacement notes, inserts, just record the errors in a log at the printers and the BOC as to what notes screwed up during printing. Either just reprint the same notes with the same serial numbers as before or just skip the whole lot and have a gap, i.e. if notes AOF9000000-AOF9000999 screwed up, just have a gap from AOF89999999-AOF9001000, no collector is going to know these notes in this printing range screwed up because we're talking about only 1000 notes, even if there was a 10,000 note gap, nobody would know, because we can't see every $5 note that was printed. The missing notes could just be in general circulation if we didn't know they were pulled. Do you know where note AOG77864509 is?

That way nobody would be doing brick searches anymore for replacements/inserts. They would only be looking for radars. If the BOC pulled all the radars and ladders, solid numbers, number one notes then nobody would be buying new bricks. I wonder if the BOC would do that because if they are aware that brick searchers are a teller's worst nightmare, they might consider it. Think of it, they have to place a spacial order to get the bricks, the brick searcher goes through it, hands it back to the bank, then somebody has to count all those notes by hand, which could take an hour or more, since most auto counting machines jam with new notes. I think most brick searchers pull only a few notes out of a 1000.

For your information I have returned during my brick searches well over a million dollars easily and never once, not once has a money counter jammed.  In most cases I am taken into the vault while it is counted and I have seen 2 tellers working together counting and banding 100 note bundles totally over 100K in less than 5 minutes.

FRIEDSQUID

I dunno, everytime they received new money either U.S. or Canadian and I want to buy some, they gripe about how their machines jam. I've even seen them try to put them in the machines and they jam all the time. So they end up hand counting them, takes forever. Maybe their machines are old or dirty, I don't know, but at most banks I've been at, they don't work so hot. They say it works better with circulated notes, not new. But that's just my banks in my area.

Hudson,

One of my problems with inserts is that the list that Gilles has will never be complete.  While I agree that what is on the list are proven inserts, I don't believe the list contains ALL inserts.  I like to collect one of everything, and with insert collecting, I know I will never have one of every insert because nobody will ever know every insert range.  Do we even know what percentage of insert ranges have been discovered?

I actually believe brick searching is bad for our hobby.  Brick searchers remove the cool notes and leave less for the general public to stumble across.  A friend of mine starting collecting because he came across a solid digit radar one day and decided to hold on to it.  Had the brick that note came from been searched, he may have never enterred the hobby.

Brad

Interesting point...  about the searchers robbing the bricks.

As far as the replacements go, all I can really say is that this is an extremely well researched aspect of the hobby (possibly more than anything else before- in regards to amount of people working on it (120+) and hours of analysis put in (countless).
Have we got them all? Of course not. 
Have we properly identified what we found?  Yes.

I do see your point though.  Finding radars in circulation is alot harder than finding repeaters ABCZABC for a parallel example.

Really mon,

"My total is 9 bricks over the last 10 years mon, the last 2 AOP bricks were perfect...no inserts."

It would be interesting to find out how many bricks have been serached versus those making it into circulation. In reality, there are more than plenty of bricks that make it out in circulation. So if a tree falls in the forest, how many grow-ops can you find? Not many that for sure.
For the last few years I still found 3 inserts, a radar, a repeater, and a counterfeit in circulation by accident.

As to Jamming notes;
My favorite smiley TDCT teller says they don't mind me buying and returning the notes since thier branch goes through a high volume, so they must have a good quality note counting machine. See no jams yet.
"So feel free to order other denominations. $11 please."  

'We'd be jammin now.'
PD

I actually believe brick searching is bad for our hobby.  Brick searchers remove the cool notes and leave less for the general public to stumble across.  A friend of mine starting collecting because he came across a solid digit radar one day and decided to hold on to it.  Had the brick that note came from been searched, he may have never enterred the hobby.

Brad

The percentate of "good" notes "stolen" by brick researchers is negligible in regard of the total number of bricks released by the BoC.  Think that there is 10 000 bricks for each prefix whereas the total number of bricks researched could perhaps be somewhere between 100 and 200 per week, for all the country. Maybe 300, I cannot figure exactly.  Total:  maybe 10 000 to 15 000 bricks for a year. 

And how many prefixes are released in a year, for all denominations?  20?,  30?, 40?.  So we can find that in the best case, about 1% of ALL notes are researched.  That's leave a lot of room for all we don't know and will never know.  A proof?  There is many solid radars which are found in circulation with a VF, F even VG grade... .  And there is many insert notes and ranges that we will never know their existence... . 

Somebody has to get a job at the BOC so you can pull "all" radars/solids/ladders/inserts. You'd have access to everything before it gets out into general circulation!

omebody has to get a job at the BOC so you can pull "all" radars/solids/ladders/inserts. You'd have access to everything before it gets out into general circulation!

This HAS happened and it is NOT a good thing.... Take my word on it!!!!!!

Would you like a single person to monopolize a big aspect of the rare notes? The Solids, Millions, Ladders and 2-Digit Radars are like a pat on the back for Brick Searchers.

If you are lucky enough to get one (VERY VERY RARE!!!) Then it helps pay the rising costs of brick searching.

It is estimated that Bricks searchers cover at MOST about 10% of all the bricks searched. So all the good notes that enter circulation is actually quite staggering. We have all heard about people getting Solids, Millions and Ladder's getting spit out of ATM's. 

I actually believe brick searching is bad for our hobby.

You know Brad, I never used to look at things this way...but I'm beginning to see your point.

I think there are far too many notes on the market and far too few collectors to adequately absorb them.  As I've said in the past, there are only a limited number of asterisk replacements that are truly limited in their availability.  There are many, many, many and many more new Journey insert replacements that will be announced/available and yet they sell at huge premiums. I just can't rationalize the costs and I'm flabbergasted at how many other collectors cough up such hefty premiums for a recently discovered insert!

This frequently puzzles me.  I would never spend the premiums$ collectors are currently spending for some very recent $5.00 inserts.  It just blows me away!  And I often think that if the money currently spent on a post designated serial numbered note that hits some insert range (which is too similar to its  non-replacement  counterpart) then more money would be freed up to scarcer prefixes, rarer series, and actually designated asterisk replacements.  If you want to see a bizarre discrepancy in replacements that have X as a designation and ones that don't ...just take a gander at the Birds $5.00  I find it a stretch to understand how someone would pay such a huge premium because a Bird $5 serial number falls within a certain numbered range-- and yet has no other striking feature to distinguish it from the common rabble! 

I would go for the X note any day.  I guess I'm old fashioned..but that's where I'd bank my limited resources. I still cannot comprehend the fury over today's inserts...and I still feel somewhat alarmed at the prices being paid for them!  How does that impact the really scarce/rare notes we so seldom see auctioned (eg in the 1954 series?)

I think a bit has to do with speculation. To illustrate my point:

When I sold my HOG replacements for $22.50 to forum members.... I never realized that only a slim amount would ever be found.
Someone made a mint off of me.  That could have been anyone.

Similarily, there are hardly any HOP replacements known, I certainly have never owned one. When they are new, everyone knows that more could be found. BUT are more found?  That is the root of the issue.

Sometimes more are found, and sometimes not.


Anyway, I do see your point.  It is very claer though that there are a few people who do not collect replacements because of the points you say, nevermind the note's actual designation.  That is fine, just like I don't collect changeovers.    Why? It's my opinion of what I like to collect. I also don't collect rotators, but the prices people pay.  I DO collect radars, and I will pay big bucks for one I need.

That is what it comes down to- if it is an area of your collection, then these prices might not seem so ridiculous.  Whether you (anyone) agrees with it or not, replacement notes are a part of the hobby- and as collectors learn about the significance of which notes are which, and how rare they can be in many cases, their choices in note purchasing are influenced.

The only negative voices about replacements so far (other than from people who just don't collect them) appear to be frustrated on the basis "we cannot know for sure if we got them all".  This has come from a couple people. 
However in the same sentance, they are in agreement with the numbers and the corrections that were made - because they are for the betterment of the hobby.

Here is the point:
Ranges don't "change", they get corrected. Once a proper ream range is proven to be sheet replacements, it will not change.  It may be added to, but the base remains. 
If a ream is discovered to be 40,000 instead of 45,000 notes, then an actual change happens. (Because the replacement range was not based on proper ream size).

If a Range goes from 45,000 to 1000.   WOAH- Dont worry--  This is from recalling the data to determine how the notes were placed, where they were found. In this case, the notes were found with differing FP/BP from the mother brick, and were all in a range of 1000 notes.   Sheet replacement evidence is violated, thus they are Single Note Replacements (s.n.r).  IF YOU found replacements and had them reprted to Gilles, then the range would encompass your notes still.  So no one is suddenly realizing that their found replacements are now suddenly not on the list.
For the Record: As of this list (with the follow up correction letter), there will be no more retroactive changes.

The Corrections have been made, and now we have the knowledge to get it right the first time.

Sorry I kind of brought this a bit off topic, but I think this is valuable to know.

Cheers everyone.

Plus I could have a note with the number
AOB 2308709 and it's valued at $200 but if the number is
AOB 2208709 it's valued at $16. I don't know about that.

This is my problem with the journey replacements.  I don't understand their charm and cost as well.  It's simply a diffused distribution of a prefix, rather than a distinct, short run with its own prefix.

I'll stick to the fancy numbers.

Hi Matt,

I would recommend reading my article I wrote about Journey Series Replacements in the proper section of the forum.

http://www.cdnpapermoney.com/forum/index.php?topic=5160.0

It will answer a lot of questions and help you become much more informed as how how ALL Replacements are used and found. The X notes and * Notes are long gone. We can hope and pray all we want for more but they are the past. We MUST look to the future for Replacements. 

For the record and on the topic:

Roughly since the last sale of CBN to new owners, there have been NO replacements found.  CBN prints the $20s that are EZ_ or ELA and ELB etc...

There is speculation that replacements from CBN are now a thing of the past, based on their absence from any brick searched, from coast to coast, across numberous prefizes already. This is not typical of CBN bricks, but it could be a sign of changes.  There was a point in time where BAI (BABN) was also just simply not issuing replacements, and instead just removing the notes...   bricks did not come from 000-999.  They were generally roughly 1000+ in a row (not jumpy like CBN) but the first and last note would be over 1000 apart because there would be notes just plain missing.

Anyway, when you do a brick, and you find a replacement note, then you may better understand their function (and their scarcity).

When I am going through 80+ bricks with no replacements (and repeating that amount again with nothing), that adds to ALOT of fees. 
The cost of getting the notes must be considered.

It is really exciting to find your first replacement note in a brick (or even a few new bundles of you can manage to get that from your bank - making sure that the "replacement" found is genuine first - perhaps already in a confirmed range).

Anyway, what I am trying to say is that it is exciting and alot of fun, and to be a part of a very large group effort working together in keeping these replacements accurate, it is really an amazing feeling. 

I have found ONE replacement note (AOT) in the last probably 9 weeks or so.

Anyway, what I am trying to say is that it is exciting and alot of fun

Sure, just rub it in Hudson. Really make me more miserable than I already was before I read your post.

I will soon be starting the BFBC (Banned From Bricks Club) 

Squid my friend....

Do not beat yourself up. I was briefly in your position when the new $5's were released. I was in a panic to get my hands on them.

Just start building your house of cards from scratch again. Begin your campaign drive and see how that goes for you.... 

Bricks are a totally roller coaster.... Worse then drugs! 

There is speculation that replacements from CBN are now a thing of the past, based on their absence from any brick searched, from coast to coast, across numerous prefizes already. This is not typical of CBN bricks, but it could be a sign of changes.  There was a point in time where BAI (BABN) was also just simply not issuing replacements, and instead just removing the notes...   bricks did not come from 000-999.  They were generally roughly 1000+ in a row (not jumpy like CBN) but the first and last note would be over 1000 apart because there would be notes just plain missing.

I think the end of brick searcher's designated "insert replacements" would be a good thing.  This would make us focus on what is really rare and hard to find, what is desirable to collect (based on year, signature, prefix) and not just some number.   Once the dust has settled, I think many of the new collectors would re-focus on scarcer notes (errors, asterisk, 37 Osborne, etc).  This would be great for the hobby because it would add to the value of older rare significant notes.   

I am going to respond to this...

This would make us focus on what is really rare and hard to find, what is desirable to collect (based on year, signature, prefix) and not just some number.

1. Rarity: You have no idea how hard it is to find replacements in new bricks these days.  Try going for more than 100 bricks, multiple times, and finding nothing. Then finding two or three in a brick.  Common? Not likely.
2. What is desirable to collect: I don't collect Asterisk notes, or DF's or changeovers, or much 1954 or 1937 stuff.  Why? I have my reasons, one being price, and two being accessability.  Your statement of what is desirable to collect is a statement of personal choice, not of hard fact (your statement can never be validified regardless of collector subject).  I still get offers for me to sell my replacement notes, despite the fact that I have found none.  The anxious emails still roll in.
3. Not some number: Then I guess we need to remove the replacement section from the 1979 series then.  They are numbers that were identified as replacement notes. But just numbers.


What is valuable to you, is valuable to you. What is valuable to me has value to me.  There will be people who value one, the other, both or neither, and it is up to them to decide what to collect.
There has been ALOT of growth in the Canadian Paper hobby recently, and alot of new people start with what they can get easy and maybe in change... the Journey notes in particular.  Perhaps demand for Journey notes (replacements and regular) is strong in general because of the strong growth in the hobby?

I doubt that the vanishing of any segment of the hobby is a good thing.  Nor do I see it happenneing. However, as most collectors do, they expand their hobby beyond their starting point, meaning the more collectors there are (regardless of what they collect) then overall and in general, the better for the hobby in all areas. 

I agree with Hudson.

We must all remember that not everyone collects the same thing...

If we did where would all the fun be? 

I don't think anyone... Out side of Arthur (  ) can afford EVERYTHING so many collectors are forced into selecting an area of collecting and then eventually expanding to other areas of Interest.

What strikes me is that everyone who is a Paper Money Collector has a strong drive to learn more...The endless pursuit of knowledge. On can be exciting and rewarding.

I agree with Hudson.

We must all remember that not everyone collects the same thing...

If we did where would all the fun be? 

I don't think anyone... Out side of Arthur (  ) can afford EVERYTHING so many collectors are forced into selecting an area of collecting and then eventually expanding to other areas of Interest.

What strikes me is that everyone who is a Paper Money Collector has a strong drive to learn more...The endless pursuit of knowledge. On can be exciting and rewarding.

I agree with X,

I haven't found much except from an odd old stock floating around last month, I figure it's time to work on my other aspects of my collection, check dis album out.

http://picasaweb.google.com/twoparroteyes/BirdsNoteCollection

Dei Gratia mon,
PD

Huds... what I wrote was just my opinion.. That's what the forum is all about.. Remember?

What is valuable to you, is valuable to you. What is valuable to me has value to me.  There will be people who value one, the other, both or neither, and it is up to them to decide what to collect.

I guess that's what makes this hobby so interesting.  I have tried some brick searching (until my eyes crossed) and cannot fathom how you do it.  I can understand keeping aside rotators, radars or errors more than a note that has a prefix (or same prefix and different number) that doesn't belong...but I guess that's what makes you and I diffeerent.  I also understand that these so-called "inserts" are rare.  However, no matter how you slice it...these notes are just regular notes that were printed up in reams just like all the other notes (including the notes they replaced) but put aside in blocks of 20 or 40K.  The only thing that makes them significant is the fact that you and a handful of brick searchers have found them where they don't belong. 

Once a range has been established (by a number of authorized searchers) than Charlton and their pricing panel put their stamp of approval and try to come up with a fair market value on them. For the life of me, I cannot understand why there's a thread aimed at justifying your costs as brick searchers.  I guess it must come as a result of people wondering why these INSERTS are so expensive.  Now while I understand the system, etc, it nevertheless makes the uninitiated feel as if there's some kind of autocratic elite who determine the value of notes.

The notes (inserts) you so avidly collect are basically incomparable to true asterisk or (X) replacement notes.  Even the 1979 $5 & $20's are desginated by the BOC as emergency replacements.  They were printed up in special batches (with a special serial number asterisk or X designation) and then inserted where notes were damaged.    During the Birds series the BOC did away with producing specially designated replacements due to their expense. So all the notes I'm referring to were even more expensive to produce and then be used to replace defective notes.

However, next thing we know INSERTS were found long after and later deemed as special (once again).  If the collecting community wants to spend high premiums on a serial number range that's their business...but it really has no appeal to me.  I also happen to know many top Canadian collectors who feel the same-- and mainly focus on the notes I mentioned.

Its also true that radars, ladders, and other fancy numbers are just numbers...but it is no wonder that solids and two digits (even rotators) are more desired than a random number.  They're just cool to look at (end of story).  Eye appeal used to be the hallmark for collecting-- but that is being lost on new collectors.

There has been ALOT of growth in the Canadian Paper hobby recently, and alot of new people start with what they can get easy and maybe (sic) find in their change... the Journey notes in particular.  Perhaps demand for Journey notes (replacements and regular) is strong in general because of the strong growth in the hobby?

 

I believe you are correct here.  However, I also tend to believe that a lot of people are spending a lot of money on the journey insert notes that could just as easily be spent on designated (asterisk or X) replacements that I mentioned in my earlier post.  This is driving the BV of such designated inserts up higher than I think they would otherwise be.  Just look at the speculation for the so-called SNR's!  Here are regular notes (not 1 marking or designation separating them from block replacements or regular notes) that were printed only months before going for several hundred dollars!

Let's also recall that there are still many significant Journey notes to collect WHICH DON'T REQUIRE A PANEL OF EXPERTS (ie brick searchers) TO GIVE THEIR STAMP OF APPROVAL.  We all know about the lost prefixes (03 BER/ 04 BEL/BEK/BEP)and the end of the 2001 issue (04 BEK/BET).  Even the 2004 FEV (all inserts) seem more relevant as do the 2002 AOF $5, 2004 HOH $5.00, 2000 FDY, 2001 FEE, and the 2001 Knight Thiessen FDZ.  With all these notes the numbers speak for themselves. 

I doubt that the vanishing of any segment of the hobby is a good thing.  Nor do I see it happenneing.

When Australia went polymer-- it didn't hurt the hobby, but made more Australians interested in paper (and all asterisks shot up in value).  I fail to see your logic...but I do understand that you are passionate about brick searching so this will be my last post on this subject. 

I don't mean to sully your good work, nor to step on your toes!! 

The notes (inserts) you so avidly collect are basically incomparable to true asterisk or (X) replacement notes.

I assume that Hudson has not yet read this post since I know for a fact he does not look for inserts but REPLACEMENTS

FRIEDSQUID

Wtw, I fully respect your opinion on what notes you find value in.
There is one thing that I would like to correct though:
Replacements are note given a stamp of approval by brick searchers.
They are determined by understanding how the notes are printed.  From the replacement notes rescued, a range (40,000 or whatever the ream size may be re: Sheet replacements) is identified.  It is factually identified.  I guess the "approval" you refer to is the confirmation, meaning that the replacements need to be found by a number of reliable sources.  Those all go through one info collaborator - GP.  The approval is not about what numbers the range includes, but moreso whether the range has been verified/confirmed by multiple finds.

I have no problem with your post or your explaination whatsoever.  Just as long as it is clear that value is something that is different to everyone.  When I started into the hobby I thought that there was some place somewhere that determined all these things like range and price, but that is not how it is.  It is the teamwork and collaboration of all brick searchers.  Also, not knowing each others work acts as a good single blind in the process.  Updates are made based on the finds, in a seemingly never ending quest to have as complete info as possible.  And this is what costs the money.

In saying all of this, I can understand where you are coming from and I respect your position on the matter. 

Regards,
Hudson

I do hope that this will be the LAST reference to "Insert" Notes....

All Replacements are "Inserted" so... They are still Replacement notes.... END OF STORY!!!

I have mentioned this in half a dozen different posts....

I rest my case once and for all on this matter of Terminology.   

I'm with some of the guys who mainly collect older notes. My main focus is 1954 and older.

The extent of my journey collecting has been to try and complete a prefix collection. I do that for no premium at my local bank. Everytime I go in I just ask if they have any new notes. If they do I buy a few. Usually with $5's I'll buy 10 notes and with $ 10's I'll buy 5 notes. I know these notes will not really be worth much more than face but It allows me to participate in collecting modern notes also.
I've stumbled on few good notes just doing it this way.

Oli where are you ?

You are the biggest journey collector I know. I know you have been branching out some to other notes. Whats you view on this now.

X-S: I'm sorry I have been away a lot (a bit out of the loop) and didn't know

All Replacements are "Inserted" so... They are still Replacement notes....

I stand corrected. 

Replacements are note given a stamp of approval by brick searchers.
They are determined by understanding how the notes are printed.  From the replacement notes rescued, a range (40,000 or whatever the ream size may be re: Sheet replacements) is identified.  It is factually identified.  I guess the "approval" you refer to is the confirmation, meaning that the replacements need to be found by a number of reliable sources.  Those all go through one info collaborator - GP.  The approval is not about what numbers the range includes, but moreso whether the range has been verified/confirmed by multiple finds.

This is the best concise explanation I've read so far on the topic.  Thanks.  I know that Charlton requires verification so I'm not surprised at this process and the "double-blind" test of reliability.  That's all good.

Although I keep saying this is my last post on the topic...I'm breaking my promise to pontificate on what I believe happens as we continue to search Canadian bank notes.

Taken from a historical perspective and considering strictly BOC issues:

1935 -   Very Few note searchers   = Scarce notes - any note (all conditions) ARE RARE

1937 -   Few note searchers (during the switch over to 1954) mostly nice UNC               Coyne/Towers
                   -  High grade early signatures and change-overs very rare

1954 -  Some brick searchers, mostly bank employees put aside solids or other desirable (errors) and unusual (asterisk) notes, the discovery of test notes, etc.
                   - many rare notes, (all conditions -esp VF and up- collectible)
                   - Most UNC 1967 commemoratives very common as public hordes them

1970's -  More collectors start searching bricks, more bank employees separate rare notes for collectors
                      - collectible "good-overs," SNR replacements, tests are discovered after the fact 
                      -Solid radars become more available.
                      - Replacements are fewer in higher denominations/in UNC

1980's - Brick searching is now common. 
                      - Birds X, RADARS, errors, are ACTIVELY sought out/collected
                       - Previously considered RARE notes are common amongst collectors (BV drops)
                       -BPN variations, as well as plate colour, excite collectors around the $5 and $20
                        (discovered long after they were issued)
                        - BOC auction off specimens, sheets, and other collectibles, hobby grows   

2000    - Brick searching is wide spread.  BOC sell First Impression sets (common)
                       -Notes are annalysed as they're released (CPMF) shares a wealth of info. 
                       -2003 BER and 2004 BEL break the patterns and are scarce
                       -2003 BEK change over is caught but still very hard to find
                       - Replacement $5 (eg AOB) caught but some change-overs hard to find
                       -Radars - extremely common (except in for lost prefixes, change overs, etc)
                       -Replacements - common in UNC condition, some are rare, and few are scarce

2005    -Searching is rampant. TPG impacts hobby
                       -Replacements sell for high premiums (speculation)
                       - Single note replacements are found (speculation is rampant)
                       - hobby continues to grow
                       - Grading becomes more crucial as online auctions become more popular

My point is:
As brick searching has advanced so have a greater number of collectible notes in UNC condition become available.   This means that found notes (in less than UNC) became less collectible to the market at large.  Radars (once considered rare) are every where you turn now.   The obsession over a well graded note hits new highs since so many notes are found in good grades, and due to the cutting cup discovered on the new issues.

Replacements, first believed to be in the 9,000,000 plus range, wildly fluxuate all over in terms of number ranges. Now it becomes a science in collecting them and many collectors have a hard time keeping up.   When I look at my newer collection (some replacements) I have to remind myself that this is not an ordinary note so as not to sell or trade it.

I like to speculate: What would happen if the hobby became more like it used to be (a black box of mystery...and we only discovered what was rare after the fact?)  For instance: What if the BOC issued polymers and there were no more replacements?    I doubt that it would be detrimental to the hobby.  I believe it would make us re-focus on other kinds of notes (just as we have focussed on special numbers such as rotators and repeaters)  Does this make any sense to you (from a historical perspective)?

Update: your post on the difficulty in finding "older 4-cycle notes"  illustrates the point I'm trying to make

Does this make any sense to you (from a historical perspective)?

This makes total sense -well put.  I see what you mean completely - more searchers, means in general, more supply and so forth.

I apologise for continuing to drag you back into this thread (), but I think overall, and of course now in retrospect, this conversation is a good read for anyone who wonders about how things work (why some things have value and some don't in the eyes of each individual).  And this last post by you I think is an excellent reminder to us about why some notes are priced the way they are.

I think I am going to retire from this thread as well.  Again, well put, wtw.