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Topic: Interested in a '79 $20 RADAR?  (Read 7004 times)
gtpnxt
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« on: November 15, 2004, 09:15:27 pm »

I have a "TRUE 1979 $20 RADAR" as sold to me at the Nov 15, 2002 T.I.C.F Auction, Lot #224 entitled "BofC $20.00 1979 BC-54c. No. 52453335425. A very rare 11-digit Radar Note UNC".

It was listed in the Show Catalogue with an Estimate of $1500.00 but didn't quite go that high but was sold to me.

I am thinking of selling it if the right price (my cost) were to come along..... What do you think my chances are on eBay?

Let me know if you are or know of any serious buyers out there.

Cheers,

GTPNXT

(PS: My eBay Login ID is under the same name in case you want to look me up.)
Steve11
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2004, 01:27:52 am »

Ebay? I dunno..high ticket items...personally I would want to "hold" and look directly at the item for any purchase over 100 bucks..but thats my opinion.

as a radar..your note is very very cool..HOWEVER it isn't a radar..well yah,,it is...sorta...

and yah..I am as jelous as a cat looking at a fresh tuna...

:o

Post a pic..if the dang thing works that is...gawd...11 didgit radar....would you take time payments....20 bucks a month..for ohhhhhh I dunno..6 years LOL
Seth
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2004, 09:24:26 pm »

Here's some basic radar note math:

Number of digits:    Odds that any note is a radar:

1                                  1:1
2 or 3                           1:10
4 or 5                            1:100
6 or 7                            1:1,000
8 or 9                            1:10,000
10 or 11                        1:100,000

So there is one "super radar" for every 100,000 notes; making them 100 times scarcer than radars on the 7-digit serial numbers that are in use today.  Or, to put it in another context, almost as scarce as today's "radar repeater" (e.g. 3434343, scarcity is 1:111,111).  I love these mathematical topics.   ;D

But please, don't even get me started on the topic of radar notes and the 1979 series.  

56051274721 is supposed to be a radar note?
52137777777 is a solid radar?
30210000001 is a serial number 1?

Puh-leeze.  I find it laughable that the collecting community agrees that the first four digits don't count. :(
« Last Edit: November 16, 2004, 10:18:55 pm by grandish »

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Steve11
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2004, 12:58:47 am »

The first four didgits have a "defined" role to play...they take the place of series letters....denomination designator and the printer.

The last 7 numbers are the serial number..by definition..only the serial numbers should/must/are taken as "radar" when considering a note.

HOWEVER: we do accept ... collectors and dealers..that you can have a SUPER RADAR..where the 11 didgits represent an ultimate palindrom..

to say that 30512310132 is NOT a radar..would be like saying to have a true radar in other notes you must have the series letters count as well..ie:

ABA1230321 is not a radar but;
AAA1230321 is a radar..

the SUPER radars that you speak of are very very rare..and deserve a special catagory all by themselves;

I said it is not a radar..IN JEST..and believe me..if I had the funds...or you were willing to take monthly payments :D I would definatly buy it.
pbcoins
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2004, 01:50:24 am »

I'm waiting fo someone to step in and kill the discussion by saying "a note is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it".  Yeah, like that answer ever really "solves" anything  ;D

For a $1,000 item, the eBay costs are about $35.  Figure $5 to list and $30 in sale fees.

I agree that eBay is the wrong avenue for big ticket items.  If you want to show off something expensive and are prepared to swallow a $5 listing fee for the privilege, go ahead.  There's a chance someoen will buy it, but not likely.  If you accept PayPal, that's an extra $40 or so in fees you get stuck with.

Both types (7- and 11-digit) are radars, but I think the super radar is where the money is at.
admin
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2004, 10:47:36 am »

Seems to me that your calculations on "super radars" needs to consider the number of four digit "prefixes" that are available to make them up from. 1111 isn't one of them, neither is 0000, if you see what I mean.

Anyone care to list them?
eyevet
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2004, 11:48:24 am »

Quote
I'm waiting fo someone to step in and kill the discussion by saying "a note is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it".  


Ok, It's a dirty job but someone has to do it!!!

A note is worth whatever <<an informed buyer>> is willing to pay for it, and <<an informed seller>> is willing to take for it.  


pbcoins
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2004, 05:48:30 pm »

I think Seth is correct, one in 100,000 is right.  A quick look at the catalogue shows around 2.6 billion notes printed, so 2.6E09 divided by 1.0E05 gives us 2.6E04, or 26,000.  That's a small number.  How many were saved? Maybe 1 in 100... leaves 260.  How many are unc?  Maybe 1 in 20... leaves 13 Unc super radars.  Yep, that's pricey.

Nice try, eyevet  :P
Mike_L
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2004, 08:20:42 pm »

We actually don't need to worry about which four digit prefixes are available.

You can think of it this way:  start forming a serial number by picking its series (abcd), then pick the first digit of the number (e).  The next digit doesn't matter (x).  Of the 100,000 possible choices for the last five digits, the 1 where the last five match the five already chosen will produce super-radars. (abcdexedcba).  So every print run of 100,000 notes will produce exactly one super-radar.

The only correction comes from notes that are systematically destroyed.  The print run abcd00xxxxx is only 99,999 or 99,960 notes long (depending on whether a sheet or single note is destroyed).  Since, there is no series 00xx, the systematticaly destroyed notes never include a super-radar.  So these runs give odds of 1:99,999 or 1:99,960.

Any series that did not result in a multiple of 100,000 notes would also require a slight correction, but this would also be really minimal and should account for fewer than 4 missing or extra super-radars per denomination.

In conclusion, saying the odds for a super-radar are 1:100,000, is correct to more than enough significant digits whether or not we take into account which series are possible.

Mike
Seth
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2004, 09:19:15 pm »

Quote
Seems to me that your calculations on "super radars" needs to consider the number of four digit "prefixes" that are available to make them up from. 1111 isn't one of them, neither is 0000, if you see what I mean.


When I first read your post, Paul, I thought you were correct and my 1:100,000 figure had to have been incorrect.  But it seems like I was right after all!

Paul, you are correct that there would have been no "super radars" starting with 0000 or 1111, for example.  But, neither would there have been any regular notes starting with those digits either.

So, consider the 10,000,000 note series starting with prefix 5612.  Any "super radars" would have to end with 2165.  So we can construct a general case:  5612xxx2165.

Replace the "xxx" with all numbers from 000 to 999.  100 of those 1000 possibilities will be radars (101, 202, 303, 010, 888, etc).

So, there'll be exactly 100 "super radars" for that series of 10,000,000 notes, or a ratio of 1:100,000.  Repeat for all the different possibilities for 4-digit prefixes in the 1979 series, and you still get the same odds, 1:100,000.

My brain works much better in the late afternoon than it does first thing in the morning.   8)
« Last Edit: November 17, 2004, 09:32:50 pm by grandish »

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gtpnxt
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2004, 10:43:13 pm »

Thanks everyone for the feedback to date....

For anyone willing to start their "Monthly payment plan now", I'll talk to you in several years  :)  Try ING Direct though, they give 2.25% from dollar one... maybe in 1.5 years we can talk... :)

Seth, I really like your last post about the  "5612xxx2165" theory which works for me in plain language.  I love my Super-RADAR even more that its 'XXX' can be replaced with '333' a solid mid-section.

As soon as I figire out how to post a note to the web somewhere I'll scan a pic for your viewing pleasure.  I have Cogeco DSL service at home and a new scanner but nowhere to scan to?

Cheers,
gtpnxt
pbcoins
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2004, 03:43:04 pm »

Y'know, gt, that note is worth only what someone is willing to pay for it...
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