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Topic: 2014 26th Edition Charlton Replacement Results 1 of 3  (Read 2960 times)
Mortgage Guy
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« on: July 18, 2013, 06:24:23 pm »

Like most of you I always enjoy this time of year and with every passing year my research seems to grow a little more. This year it has grown to the first of several Indexes to come that I have developed. The first Index will be the Total Replacement Note Index, which I will refer to as the TRN Index. Within this Index you can find all replacement ranges with the data encompassing all 26 editions’ Unc values, which have also all been adjusted for inflation. 
Let’s get started and take a look at the results.

Enjoy and Keep Searching!
MG


Total Replacement Note Index (TRN) 26th Edition

Total Market Cap   $374,798
Average Note Cost   $470
Total Ranges      799   100%
Total Decliners   38   4.8%
Total Advancers   100   12.5%      
Total Unchanged   661   82.7%

Not a bad start so let’s move on and look at the top 25 performers for the 26th Edition

Top 25 performers 26th Edition

Sign / Prefix        Range       YoY
Je-Ca; AAD    (2.829M - 2.830M)    74%
Je-Do; AOH    (9.840M - 9.960M)    49%
Je-Ca; AAD    (2.560M - 2.561M)    41%
Je-Do; HOU   (5.900M - 6.000M)   39%
Je-Ca; BTW    (1.672M - 1.673M)    32%
Je-Ca; BTW    (1.755M - 1.756M)    32%
Je-Ca; APN    (0.553M - 0.554M)    28%
Je-Ca; BTZ    (9.829M - 9.830M)    24%
Be-Ra; *A/B      N/A      24%
Je-Ca; AAC    (7.100M - 7.101M)    21%
Je-Do; APF    (2.360M - 2.400M)    19%
Je-Do; BEK    (9.315M - 9.405M)    19%
Je-Ca; BFH   (6.160M - 6.165M)   19%
Je-Ca; FMN     (3.280M - 3.281M)    19%
Prefix *F/P      N/A      17%
Kn-Th; FDZ    (9.000M - 9.600M)    16%
Je-Do; BEY    (2.620M - 2.621M)    16%
Je-Do; BEY    (2.946M - 2.947M)    16%
Je-Do; AHH     (6.429M - 6.430M)    16%
Je-Do; AOS    (4.845M - 4.850M)    15%
Je-Do; HNN   (5.845M - 5.846M)   13%
Kn-Do; BEI    (0.000M - 0.045M)    13%
Je-Ca; APN    (0.389M - 0.391M)    13%

Now, the bottom 25 performers for the 26th Edition. One noticeable new entry is the Je-Do; BEK (9.495M - 9.675M) After the discovery of an entire bundle of 100 of these guys one only needs to look at the *N/Y’s disastrous turn of events to know that this one will be here for a while.

Bottom 25 performers 26th Edition

Sign / Prefix        Range       YoY
Je-Do; AOS    (5.800M - 5.880M)    -31%
Je-Do; AOH    (1.083M - 1.086M)    -26%
Je-Do; ARK     (8.737M - 8.739M)    -26%
Je-Do; AOH    (1.320M - 1.360M)    -21%
Je-Do; EJR     (1.753M - 1.754M)    -15%
Je-Do; AOV    (5.816M - 5.817M)    -12%
Je-Do; AOT    (3.030M - 3.034M)    -12%
Be-Ra; *L/S      N/A       -12%
Je-Do; AOS    (4.893M - 4.895M)    -11%
Be-Ra; *H/Y      N/A       -11%
Kn-Th;  ANH    (3.560M-3.960M)    -11%
Kn-Do; HNA    (9.800M-9.999M)    -11%
Bo-Th; ATX       N/A      -11%
Be-Ra; *A/Y      N/A      -11%
Bo-Ra; *A/G    (below 0.400M)   -11%
Be-Ra; *N/Y      N/A      -9%
Je-Do; BEK    (9.495M - 9.675M)    -9%
Bo-Th;  GPH    (9.820M - 9.840M)    -9%
Je-Ca; APN    (0.660M - 0.661M)    -8%
Je-Ca; APN    (1.015M - 1.017M)    -8%
Be-Ra; *N/S      N/A      -8%
Be-Ra; *V/E      N/A      -8%
Bo-Th; GOT    (7.720M-7.740M)    -8%
Bo-Th; GOV    (7.180M-7.200M)    -8%
Je-Do; AOH    (9.280M - 9.281M)    -7%

All Time Worst Performers 26th Edition

The next category that we will be looking at is the all time worst performers. This list has a few very sad stories. Some at one time were sitting pretty looking down from the top of the TRN Index. Some have fallen for no reason other then 1 of many major risks associated with buying such notes and that is the discovery of a hoard. *N/Y is a perfect example of this (and Je-Do;BEK (9.495M - 9.675M). Can you believe the *N/Y had a $1,345 value in the 19th edition? And in the 26th Edition we see it at $525. Another fallen angel has been the La-Bo;AJX. The 17th Edition had this one valued at $4,100, today? $1,500, owch! The Bo-Th;GOV (7.180M-7.200M) is a perfect example of a bubble. These will always occur and are for the better part rare occurrence but none the less serve as a great reminder that emotions can do amazing things to values. This one had its debut in the 15th edition at $62. Can you imagine that this range would be worth 1500% more when the 19th Edition was release, which valued this range at $898? But in time mispricings do adjust and although this one peaked in the 19th edition by the 23rd Edition it had suffered its first loss and that was nothing compared to the beating it took in the following Edition when it lost 50% of its value. Now? It’s $325. As you will see from the list 4 will be from the $5 Bird ranges. These 4 ranges alone according to the 19th edition would have set you back $2,646 or 6 years later with no waiting line one could now get them for $915, that’s almost a 3 for 1 sale.

If you’ve got the stomach, below is a list of pain. Just don’t let anyone see you crying.

All Time Worst Performers 26th Edition
Sign / Prefix        Range       Cu./Hi
Bo-Th; BRX    Mint Issue       -89%
Th-Cr; EBX       N/A       -79%
Th-Cr; BRX       N/A       -76%
La-Bo; *FG       N/A       -71%
Cr-Bo;  ENX    Blue  B.P.N.       -71%
Th-Cr;  FNX    (L. F, below 7.08M)    -67%
Bo-Th; EBX       N/A       -66%
Je-Do; AOH    (1.083M - 1.086M)    -65%
Th-Cr; ARX    (Above 1.4M)    -64%
Bo-Th; GOV    (7.180M-7.200M)    -64%
La-Bo;  AJX       N/A       -63%
Be-Ra; *B/M      N/A      -63%
Bo-Th; GOT    (7.720M-7.740M)    -61%
Je-Do; HOU   (6.860M - 7.000M)   -61%
Be-Ra; *N/Y            -61%
Lo-Bo; "510"       CBN       -60%
Th-Cr; BBX       Large B    -58%
La-Bo; *HB       N/A       -57%
La-Bo; *FV       N/A       -55%
La-Bo; *NP       N/A       -55%
La-Bo; *JA       N/A       -55%
La-Bo; *OG       N/A       -55%
La-Bo; *UG       N/A       -54%

2014 26th Edition Charlton Canadian Government Paper Money Replacement Results 1 of 3
http://www.cdnpapermoney.com/forum/index.php?topic=13752.msg60326#msg60326
2014 26th Edition Charlton Canadian Government Paper Money Replacement Results 2 of 3
http://www.cdnpapermoney.com/forum/index.php?topic=13753.0
2014 26th Edition Charlton Canadian Government Paper Money Replacement Results 3 of 3
http://www.cdnpapermoney.com/forum/index.php?topic=13754.0
« Last Edit: July 19, 2013, 10:08:59 am by Mortgage Guy »

Always Buying Any Replacements and Special Serial Numbered Notes In C.Unc+ Condition
canada-banknotes
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2013, 09:59:50 am »


Finding a lot of discrepancies between your lists and the actual catalogue !!

Just an example:

Top 25 performers 26th Edition

Sign / Prefix        Range       YoY
Be-Ra; *D/O        N/A          26%
Be-Ra; *I/O         N/A          26%

Unless I got sent a bad catalogue, there was no price change for these two ranges from the 25th to 26th edition but you state there was a 26% YoY increase.

Please explain where you are getting these values from.



Contributor, Charlton Catalogue of Canadian Government Paper Money, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd and 29th Edition
Pricing Panel Member, Charlton Catalogue of Canadian Government Paper Money, 21st Edition 2009
Mortgage Guy
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2013, 10:08:18 am »

Finding a lot of discrepancies between your lists and the actual catalogue !!

Just an example:

Top 25 performers 26th Edition

Sign / Prefix        Range       YoY
Be-Ra; *D/O        N/A          26%
Be-Ra; *I/O         N/A          26%

Unless I got sent a bad catalogue, there was no price change for these two ranges from the 25th to 26th edition but you state there was a 26% YoY increase.

Please explain where you are getting these values from.

Noted and corrected, you are correct. Please let me know the others so that I can make the appropriate revision.

I appreciate your participation

Regards,
MG

Always Buying Any Replacements and Special Serial Numbered Notes In C.Unc+ Condition
 

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