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Topic: Exciting times for $10 bills  (Read 4410 times)
Dean
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« on: February 03, 2019, 12:58:48 pm »

I wonder if anybody else has thought of this:

For the first time, there are three versions of the $10 bill in general circulation.  (4 if you count the occasional paper $10 still found out there from time to time).

I'm still searching for the elusive 2017 CDF prefix and the FTN Macklem/Carney notes; I have not found a single one in Toronto so far.  I've been driving the local bank tellers mad, but they now know me as the "guy who collects old stuff" and they are really nice about it too!  :) 

(interestingly, I found five HBG Macklem/Carney notes in circulation when that was a thing a few years ago).

Beatrix
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2019, 03:59:15 pm »

Indeed, when I sort my bills I have to separate them in three piles at first now.

CDF is definitely rare but not impossible to find. My statistics say I have recorded 4738 of 2017 series 10s and of those 20 are CDF. Keep your eyes out and one will cross your path some day soon.
walktothewater
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« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2019, 06:01:31 pm »

Quote
I wonder if anybody else has thought of this:
- I sure have (& believe most who come to this forum would feel the same)

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I'm still searching for the elusive 2017 CDF prefix and the FTN Macklem/Carney note
I've only found 4 CDF in circulation but more than 10 of the M/C FTN.  I have found the FTU the most elusive.

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I have recorded 4738 of 2017 series 10s and of those 20 are CDF
-so I'm sure it is a regional thing (as I've looked over probably twice that many Tens in the past 4 months). We know CDF were released in Quebec but I don't think many were released in ON (well at least not around GTA).


Beatrix
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« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2019, 11:44:47 pm »

We know CDF were released in Quebec but I don't think many were released in ON (well at least not around GTA).
For what it's worth I am located in Thunder Bay. Taking a closer look at my CDF, the numbers do not appear to favour any certain serial range, so I feel like it is mostly from general circulation. Could just be luck of the draw. My point is that they're out there, just a numbers game to find one.

Quote
(as I've looked over probably twice that many Tens in the past 4 months)
Did you mean 2017 series 10s? Or just 10s in general? The value I gave is only for the amount of 2017 series. My luck is still better than yours, but it might seem a bit misleading if I didn't specify.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2019, 11:54:30 pm by Beatrix »
walktothewater
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2019, 01:00:25 pm »

- I've searched several thousand Tens since October (& before) of all 3 series (recently). I searched several bricks (probably 50-60,000 notes) the "150" when they came out and didn't get 1 bundle of CDF. Maybe I have searched around the same # of circulated "150" I am not sure- except as I posted before- may have found 4-6 (probably 2-3 just in too terrible shape to put aside).

 

Rupiah
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2019, 11:18:05 pm »

When it comes to CDF in GTA and I cover a wide swath of it - I have had similar experience as Dean and W2W.

By the same token I know for sure that at least three people in Quebec had access to either bundles or notes directly from bundles at the bank.

The same was the case with HBG M-C v/s HBG M-P. My finds of HBG M-C in the GTA area have been very low and no bundles. I know people had found bundles of them in Vancouver, Quebec and Ottawa.

Wonder what paper money would say if it could talk?
Rupiah
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2019, 10:03:09 pm »

I looked at some of the publicly available SNDB data in a different light. In terms of the extent to which the reported number of notes in any given prefix gives us a sense about its release I calculated a ratio which I am calling the Reported Ratio (RR) - This is calculated as the total number of notes reported divided by total number of notes in that prefix to the millionth. So a typical prefix would have 10 million notes. If the SNDB shows that 4300 notes are reported than RR would 4300/10 = 430.


The RR would provide a basis to compare changeover ranges with other prefixes. One would hope that if the notes that are being reported are not biased by geography then RR provides a sense of the notes that have been released in circulation.


I have also calculated the average number of notes per month entered into SNDB from the time polymers were introduced in 2011.


Here are the numbers:


Average number of notes/month entered in each of the year from 2011 to 2018


2011 - 7400 notes/month

2012 - 8900 notes/month

2013 - 12400 notes/month (5 and 10 polymer introduced)

2014 - 14200 notes/month

2015 - 8500 notes/month

2016 - 7200 notes/month

2017 - 7100 notes/month ($10 commemorative notes in circulation)

2018 - 4600 notes/month (SNDB down because forum was down)


As can be seen from the data the number of notes/month were highest in 2013 and 2014 as new 5, 10 and 20 were introduced. Notes/month have been significantly declining in last several years. Part of the reason may be that there are no more replacment notes. Previously I think this may have been a significant motivator for forum members to enter notes in case they found a replacement note. These numbers are reflected in the other statistic that I present below which is the Reported Ratio for the $10 notes

The reported ratio (RR) for the prefixes are shown below

FEW - 470
FEY - 450
FEZ - 420
FTA - 450
FTB - 560
FTC - 540
FTD - 560
FTE - 670
FTG - 340
FTH - 2 (M-C)
FTH - 300 (M-P)
FTJ - 380
FTK - 220
FTL - 160
FTM - 170
FTN - 150 (M-P)
FTN - 60 (W-P)
FTP -190
FTR - 90
FTS - 170
FTT - 80
FTU - 2
FTV - 60


There are some interesting things to interpret from the above information. For one compare the FTH M-P and FTN W-P RR 300 v/s 60. Yet the range for FTN W-P is more than the range for FTH M-P. The RR is 5 fold different. Why?

It could be that these notes are in a geographic area not reflected in the entry of notes in the SNDB.
It could be that all notes in the ranges are printed and not released
It could be that all notes in the ranges are not printed

The geogprahical aspect of the thing can be easily verified by those that have access to the SNDB data that is entered.


Seeing relatively lower RRs for prefixes from FTP to FTV relative to earlier prefixes FEW to FEZ and FTA to FTF may mean two things:

Many of these prefixes are not released yet
This is reflective of the new norm given that average notes/month have gone down
People are entering less notes as there are no more replacement notes to verify

Have fun.



Wonder what paper money would say if it could talk?
Rupiah
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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2019, 10:13:55 pm »

Here are the Reported Ratio for the $10 Commemorative notes:

CDA - 110
CDB - 150
CDC - 150
CDD - 170
CDE - 160
CDF - 16 (Assuming 10 million range)
CDF - 50 (Assuming 3.2 million range based on high and low reported)


The numbers clearly show that either CDF has a huge geographic bias in the SNDB or that numbers of CDF in circulation are low in proportion to the range seen or both.




Wonder what paper money would say if it could talk?
Rupiah
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2019, 10:20:33 pm »

Here are the RR for the vertical $10 so far. It may be too early to make any conclusions but there are some very tempting observations:

FTW - 50
FTY - 40
FTZ - 10
FFA - 20
FFB - not sufficient to report (Even though this is the prefix widely seen in all media reports)


Based on my data I would say the difference in FTZ and FFA compared to FTW and FTZ is more likely a result of geographic distribution which is not represented in the SNDB

Wonder what paper money would say if it could talk?
JB-2007
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« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2019, 11:36:30 pm »



The numbers clearly show that either CDF has a huge geographic bias in the SNDB or that numbers of CDF in circulation are low in proportion to the range seen or both.

Thats possible. I rarely use cash but i was able to pick up two CDF 10's without even searching. Maybe the CDFs were all put into circulation here in Quebec.
Rupiah
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2019, 05:52:46 pm »

Thats possible. I rarely use cash but i was able to pick up two CDF 10's without even searching. Maybe the CDFs were all put into circulation here in Quebec.

That's what it looks like. Even then I do not believe the full range of CDF is out there. CDF was the prefix that was widely seen in the media releases of BoC at the time of the release.

If you see my post on BSW you will see some parallels between

EKZ
BSW
HBG M-C
CDF
FTH M-C

The above prefixes were widely seen in the media releases of BoC. Yet they were not widely seen in circulation.

Wonder what paper money would say if it could talk?
Rupiah
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2019, 06:02:54 pm »

And FFB was the only prefix that was so widely seen in BoC media releases and yet there is only one entry in the database. Go figure.

Wonder what paper money would say if it could talk?
JB-2007
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2019, 11:58:32 am »

If anyone has noticed there has been a CDF reported in the SNDB on June 5th in the 5M range which makes this prefix even more interesting to follow and still very few sightings when compared to all others (CDA-CDE)
Beatrix
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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2019, 04:42:00 pm »

I did see that and I remain skeptical unless there is more than one sighting, or someone posts a pic. The two "newest" prefixes on the SNDB remain as FFF and FKK and both of those entries have since been deleted. Let's see some evidence before taking it as fact.
walktothewater
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« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2019, 12:31:18 pm »

Quote
CDF reported in the SNDB on June 5th in the 5M range

Quote
I did see that and I remain skeptical unless there is more than one sighting, or someone posts a pic.

I agree with Beatrix.  I accidentally entered a typo on a relatively scarce prefix (FTH M/C) - the number was a 8M SN and I accidentally typed 6M (or 5M) and although I notified the Admin of the SNDB as soon as I had entered it- it remained for a long time. 

JB-2007
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« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2019, 04:52:25 pm »

I believe too that there are many error entries in the SNDB for example the one and only FKJ note reported in the last 4 years. I am sure that there are ways it could be improved to reduce these false inputs, perhaps prompting the person to input a scan of the note when entering a prefix that has no entries. 
Beatrix
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2019, 03:02:52 pm »

Yeah I have considered that one suspect since I joined these forums. I support the idea of a pic being mandatory for new prefixes.

I also wonder the truth behind certain serial number ranges in existing prefixes with supposedly big gaps. I do wish that the SNDB info was more public than it is now, because there are a few other entries I consider to be suspect. One example is the reported EKY in 6.99m. That one is obviously a short prefix and I have only found three of them with serials starting 03, 12, 14. Based on just my own data, I find it highly unlikely that it was a 7 million run. It would be good to know if several people have found EKY in the 6 range, or if the 6.99 entry is a singular outlier and everyone else has similar data as myself.

Image uploading is as easy as ever in the modern age of smartphones. It takes me less than a minute to take a photo of an interesting bill with my phone and upload it to http://imgur.com and for people who choose not to use smartphones there is still as mentioned the scanner technology. I see no reason not to do so in the future.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 03:08:12 pm by Beatrix »
Rupiah
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2019, 06:20:40 pm »

If anyone has noticed there has been a CDF reported in the SNDB on June 5th in the 5M range which makes this prefix even more interesting to follow and still very few sightings when compared to all others (CDA-CDE)

The GPMC has provided the last prefix and serial number for CDF. By that measure the reported CDF in the 5M range would be erroneously entered or if it is indeed true then it could be very valuable.

Wonder what paper money would say if it could talk?
JB-2007
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« Reply #18 on: June 13, 2019, 09:51:30 pm »

The GPMC has provided the last prefix and serial number for CDF.
The BoC has never confirmed the end point of this note but would expect it to be somewhere around that of the GPMC as per observations
JoeF
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2019, 07:21:08 pm »

The CDF prefix in the 5M range in the Serial Number DB for the 2017 commemorative $10 is indeed an error.  I know because it was my error.  Please accept my apologies.  I could not find a way to remove the entry after I had added it in error.  I attempted to contact a moderator to correct the error but that has not happened yet.

Sorry again for my error entry.
admin
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2019, 09:22:25 pm »

Thank you everyone for pointing out some of the errors that need to be fixed.  I think what I will do is make suspect notes (first entry or new high/low) invisible in the high/low tables and new prefixes until they are confirmed by multiple users through the suspect notes section.

Users actually are prompted to enter a scan of suspect notes but the warning is only shown when the note is first entered.  Another thing I probably need to do is to make the warning more annoying and persistent until the note is either confirmed by uploading a photo or deleted.

The CDF note in question has been deleted.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 09:43:20 pm by admin »
Beatrix
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« Reply #21 on: June 15, 2019, 02:09:45 am »

So formal Joe, it's nothing to sweat about. That is why we have critical eyes on the data we see. Thank you for letting us know so it could be corrected.

Thanks to the admin as well. More burdens of proof on unusual info is a welcome step. Perhaps extra tools such as self-deletion within 24 hours of entry would help keep the info as accurate as possible.

I would still like to some day be able to see more of the SNDB info besides the edge high/lows. This could answer questions like the CDF and EKY issues outright without needing to speculate.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 02:20:25 am by Beatrix »
 

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