Exciting times for $10 bills

News: Registration is free here at the CPMF!

I wonder if anybody else has thought of this:

For the first time, there are three versions of the $10 bill in general circulation.  (4 if you count the occasional paper $10 still found out there from time to time).

I'm still searching for the elusive 2017 CDF prefix and the FTN Macklem/Carney notes; I have not found a single one in Toronto so far.  I've been driving the local bank tellers mad, but they now know me as the "guy who collects old stuff" and they are really nice about it too!   

(interestingly, I found five HBG Macklem/Carney notes in circulation when that was a thing a few years ago).

Indeed, when I sort my bills I have to separate them in three piles at first now.

CDF is definitely rare but not impossible to find. My statistics say I have recorded 4738 of 2017 series 10s and of those 20 are CDF. Keep your eyes out and one will cross your path some day soon.

I wonder if anybody else has thought of this:

- I sure have (& believe most who come to this forum would feel the same)

I'm still searching for the elusive 2017 CDF prefix and the FTN Macklem/Carney note

I've only found 4 CDF in circulation but more than 10 of the M/C FTN.  I have found the FTU the most elusive.

I have recorded 4738 of 2017 series 10s and of those 20 are CDF

-so I'm sure it is a regional thing (as I've looked over probably twice that many Tens in the past 4 months). We know CDF were released in Quebec but I don't think many were released in ON (well at least not around GTA).

We know CDF were released in Quebec but I don't think many were released in ON (well at least not around GTA).

For what it's worth I am located in Thunder Bay. Taking a closer look at my CDF, the numbers do not appear to favour any certain serial range, so I feel like it is mostly from general circulation. Could just be luck of the draw. My point is that they're out there, just a numbers game to find one.

(as I've looked over probably twice that many Tens in the past 4 months)

Did you mean 2017 series 10s? Or just 10s in general? The value I gave is only for the amount of 2017 series. My luck is still better than yours, but it might seem a bit misleading if I didn't specify.

- I've searched several thousand Tens since October (& before) of all 3 series (recently). I searched several bricks (probably 50-60,000 notes) the "150" when they came out and didn't get 1 bundle of CDF. Maybe I have searched around the same # of circulated "150" I am not sure- except as I posted before- may have found 4-6 (probably 2-3 just in too terrible shape to put aside).

 

When it comes to CDF in GTA and I cover a wide swath of it - I have had similar experience as Dean and W2W.

By the same token I know for sure that at least three people in Quebec had access to either bundles or notes directly from bundles at the bank.

The same was the case with HBG M-C v/s HBG M-P. My finds of HBG M-C in the GTA area have been very low and no bundles. I know people had found bundles of them in Vancouver, Quebec and Ottawa.

I looked at some of the publicly available SNDB data in a different light. In terms of the extent to which the reported number of notes in any given prefix gives us a sense about its release I calculated a ratio which I am calling the Reported Ratio (RR) - This is calculated as the total number of notes reported divided by total number of notes in that prefix to the millionth. So a typical prefix would have 10 million notes. If the SNDB shows that 4300 notes are reported than RR would 4300/10 = 430.


The RR would provide a basis to compare changeover ranges with other prefixes. One would hope that if the notes that are being reported are not biased by geography then RR provides a sense of the notes that have been released in circulation.


I have also calculated the average number of notes per month entered into SNDB from the time polymers were introduced in 2011.


Here are the numbers:


Average number of notes/month entered in each of the year from 2011 to 2018


2011 - 7400 notes/month

2012 - 8900 notes/month

2013 - 12400 notes/month (5 and 10 polymer introduced)

2014 - 14200 notes/month

2015 - 8500 notes/month

2016 - 7200 notes/month

2017 - 7100 notes/month ($10 commemorative notes in circulation)

2018 - 4600 notes/month (SNDB down because forum was down)


As can be seen from the data the number of notes/month were highest in 2013 and 2014 as new 5, 10 and 20 were introduced. Notes/month have been significantly declining in last several years. Part of the reason may be that there are no more replacment notes. Previously I think this may have been a significant motivator for forum members to enter notes in case they found a replacement note. These numbers are reflected in the other statistic that I present below which is the Reported Ratio for the $10 notes

The reported ratio (RR) for the prefixes are shown below

FEW - 470
FEY - 450
FEZ - 420
FTA - 450
FTB - 560
FTC - 540
FTD - 560
FTE - 670
FTG - 340
FTH - 2 (M-C)
FTH - 300 (M-P)
FTJ - 380
FTK - 220
FTL - 160
FTM - 170
FTN - 150 (M-P)
FTN - 60 (W-P)
FTP -190
FTR - 90
FTS - 170
FTT - 80
FTU - 2
FTV - 60


There are some interesting things to interpret from the above information. For one compare the FTH M-P and FTN W-P RR 300 v/s 60. Yet the range for FTN W-P is more than the range for FTH M-P. The RR is 5 fold different. Why?

It could be that these notes are in a geographic area not reflected in the entry of notes in the SNDB.
It could be that all notes in the ranges are printed and not released
It could be that all notes in the ranges are not printed

The geogprahical aspect of the thing can be easily verified by those that have access to the SNDB data that is entered.


Seeing relatively lower RRs for prefixes from FTP to FTV relative to earlier prefixes FEW to FEZ and FTA to FTF may mean two things:

Many of these prefixes are not released yet
This is reflective of the new norm given that average notes/month have gone down
People are entering less notes as there are no more replacement notes to verify

Have fun.

Here are the Reported Ratio for the $10 Commemorative notes:

CDA - 110
CDB - 150
CDC - 150
CDD - 170
CDE - 160
CDF - 16 (Assuming 10 million range)
CDF - 50 (Assuming 3.2 million range based on high and low reported)


The numbers clearly show that either CDF has a huge geographic bias in the SNDB or that numbers of CDF in circulation are low in proportion to the range seen or both.

Here are the RR for the vertical $10 so far. It may be too early to make any conclusions but there are some very tempting observations:

FTW - 50
FTY - 40
FTZ - 10
FFA - 20
FFB - not sufficient to report (Even though this is the prefix widely seen in all media reports)


Based on my data I would say the difference in FTZ and FFA compared to FTW and FTZ is more likely a result of geographic distribution which is not represented in the SNDB

The numbers clearly show that either CDF has a huge geographic bias in the SNDB or that numbers of CDF in circulation are low in proportion to the range seen or both.

Thats possible. I rarely use cash but i was able to pick up two CDF 10's without even searching. Maybe the CDFs were all put into circulation here in Quebec.

Thats possible. I rarely use cash but i was able to pick up two CDF 10's without even searching. Maybe the CDFs were all put into circulation here in Quebec.

That's what it looks like. Even then I do not believe the full range of CDF is out there. CDF was the prefix that was widely seen in the media releases of BoC at the time of the release.

If you see my post on BSW you will see some parallels between

EKZ
BSW
HBG M-C
CDF
FTH M-C

The above prefixes were widely seen in the media releases of BoC. Yet they were not widely seen in circulation.

And FFB was the only prefix that was so widely seen in BoC media releases and yet there is only one entry in the database. Go figure.

If anyone has noticed there has been a CDF reported in the SNDB on June 5th in the 5M range which makes this prefix even more interesting to follow and still very few sightings when compared to all others (CDA-CDE)

I did see that and I remain skeptical unless there is more than one sighting, or someone posts a pic. The two "newest" prefixes on the SNDB remain as FFF and FKK and both of those entries have since been deleted. Let's see some evidence before taking it as fact.

CDF reported in the SNDB on June 5th in the 5M range

I did see that and I remain skeptical unless there is more than one sighting, or someone posts a pic.

I agree with Beatrix.  I accidentally entered a typo on a relatively scarce prefix (FTH M/C) - the number was a 8M SN and I accidentally typed 6M (or 5M) and although I notified the Admin of the SNDB as soon as I had entered it- it remained for a long time.