Author
Topic: Rationailty in GPMC Pricing  (Read 477 times)
Rupiah
  • Very Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 824
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:53:55 pm »

Can someone in this forum help make sense of the following that is in the GPMC with respect to HAE (M-C), EJE -2006 -  (J-D) and BSW (M-C):

BC-67c - $5 2011
Macklem-Carney HAE
Quantity Printed - 424,000 - Nos. reported in SNDB - 28
VF - $100 ($95 over face)
EF - $140 ($135 over face)
AU - $200 ($195 over face)
UNC - $250 ($245 over face)
C-UNC - $325 ($320 over face)
G-UNC - $450 ($445 over face)


BC-66a-i - $100 2006
Jenkins-Dodge EJE
Quantity Printed - 455,000 - Nos reported in SNDB - 35
VF - --
EF - $125 ($25 over face)
AU - $200 ($100 over face)
UNC - $300 ($200 over face)
C-UNC - $325 ($225 over face)
G-UNC - $350 ($250 over face)

BC-71a - $20 2012
Macklem-Carney BSW
Quantity Printed - 270,000 - Nos reported in SNDB - 14
VF - $40 ($20 over face)
EF - $60 ($40 over face)
AU - $75 ($55 over face)
UNC - $110 ($90 over face)
C-UNC - $135 ($115 over face)
G-UNC - $170 ($150 over face)


If rarity is described as a function of number that is printed and number that is reported then by the publicly available data BSW should have a greater price premium over HAE and EJE.

In AU grades BSW is $55 over face, compared to HAE which is $195 over face and EJE which is $100 over face.

Even the logic that smaller denominations are more valued by collectors than larger denominations does not explain the discrepancy between EJE and BSW and a huge difference in price between HAE and BSW. At the very least one would imagine the price over face should be similar for similiar rarity.

Am I reading something wrong or does this mean that the pricing panel in the GPMC has more insight than that reported by members of this forum on SNDB.


Wonder what paper money would say if it could talk?
wagnert89
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 136
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2019, 10:50:32 am »

I would say, as many others would probably agree, that quantity found is always an important factor; however, at this point it's something different (at least for now). 

I have seen two M-C HAE notes, in person, and both had rare serial numbers (solid number and a two digit radar) which adds a rarity multiplication factor.  I have not seen any EJE or BSW prefixes in person.

I think one reason for the price varience is that the BSW notes are still current-issue and there are some floating around in circulation.  Compare this to finding those Journey notes which are no longer available in circulation.  The journey note circulation removal and the time pasted suggest it's unlikely many new finds will occur unlike the BSW notes which are still available in circulation and the final amount will not be finalized until the frontier series is removed from circulation ( replaced with new design or cyrotocurrency).   Just my opinion  :)
« Last Edit: October 16, 2019, 11:31:25 am by wagnert89 »
JB-2007
  • Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1,843
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2019, 02:12:22 pm »

These are the prices listed in the 31st edition. The 32nd edition should be out anytime now. It will be interisting to see what the prices are at. But i dont think BSW will change much probably because there are so few around that we dont really have any good precise market trend yet.
walktothewater
  • Very Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1,100
  • Join the Journey
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2019, 11:22:55 pm »

Quote
I think one reason for the price varience is that the BSW notes are still current-issue
Quote
i dont think BSW will change much probably because there are so few around that we dont really have any good precise market trend yet.
- I think these are fairly good takes on Charlton's "cold feet" over $20 BSW and M/C $10 FTH (& $50 AMK).  I have never seen one listed for sale. I've seen they prefer to be conservative when assigning BV to later notes.

I would also like to add that it seems as if there's no one on the pricing panel who have taken notice (likely the "old guard"). M/C HAE $5 got tremendous hype as it was the $5 signature-change over that every collector seemed keen on getting one before the polymer. I knew a couple collectors from Quebec who found some and none wanted to sell their circulated HAE examples for less than $200-$300 when BV was $50 (years ago). I also felt the HAF-HAL $5 prefixes got a bit of a shaft from Charlton.  I met a pricing panel contributor who felt HAF & HAG were extremely common even though just half dozen bricks were likely discovered (as far as I know).  Not hard to get in UNC but HAH and HAL are quite tough.   

From most of the ol' time collectors I talked to, no one even seemed the least bit interested in the Frontiers polymer issue.  It will probably take some time (years), and a new generation of collectors before these scarce notes get due credit in the catalogue.
rocken
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 231
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2019, 06:49:19 pm »

I tend to agree that the BSW notes are somewhat under priced in the last catalog.I happened upon one in Gem Unc ( perhaps the best known example) when they were first issued . I have been searching ever since and haven't seen any nor do I expect too  in the future. :(

 

Login with username, password and session length