Bricks. Why Replacement Notes are sometimes not cheap.

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All the sound & fury that still rages over "inserts."

It still amazes me that asterisk and X designated replacements are as cheap as they are (considering they're one of a kind, and we'll never see them again). 

Well I guess if I have to concern myself over modern notes, I would definitely seek:  2002 AOF or 2004 HOH $5
for $10's  2001 K/T FDZ, K/D 2001 FEE, 2003 J/D BEL, BEK, BEP or 03 BER 04 BER/BET simply because theyre all short runs... no dispute about it.  Only the 2004 BEY /FEV are of any interest to me...though it seems to be the case for a million other collectors who have them.

Like Gary T, I have a few inserts, but I certainly don't consider them my "show-stopper" notes!

I love free market. No one truly "knows" for sure what is going to happen.

The SAD thing about it, is that now today more than ever, the journey replacements are based on FACT and not estimation.  It drives me nuts that the word "best guesses" is used in a recent letter. 
Lost in translation perhaps...  they are now based on HARD evidence.

Replacements are not a guessing game.  They might have been educated estimates in the past, but the $5s have been figured out, as have the $10s, $20s, $50s, and $100s.  Guess that is all of them.  And that is for Both printing companies too.

We KNOW the ream sizes and layout. Both companies.  This is not guessing at all.
Therefore sheet finds (which are hardly found at all now) determine EXACTLY a range.  Similarily, a pure or mixed mother brick  can determine a ream that was for regular notes.  It is as simple as that.

I know you can tell some frustration in my words in this thread, and that is for this reason:  I worked long hard hours many many nights to get Gilles the Black Box research papers before his March newsletter would go out, and it got to him on the last day.   Revisions had to be made in some areas as you know from the prior letter.  Gilles spent a long hard time re-analyzing his data with the Matricies I developed.  many hours right before the letter went to the printers.  And that was so the collecting body would have the most accurate numbers possible.  I didn't forsee that many changes. Perhaps about 10-15 or so.   GP has the info dating back to other stuff that I do not have, and he made the decision to update many ranges for the benifit of collectors. 
It was a transition from having very good estimates to having ranges based on Factual evidence.
Are the ranges going to change again? NO.  They went from being best estimates to being based on hard evidence and fact. Yes I used the word fact.

This is the main point:
We in fact know a ream size, from first number to last number.
THUS
We in fact know a replacement ream range, from first number to last number.
AND
We in fact know a non-replacement ream range, from first number to last number.


As more reams are discovered, the ranges that are determined do not change.... they may have an adjacent ream designated as replacements, of course, as replacements are found.  This is the result of continued research on notes.


So.....  now I am hearing about people who feel on edge about this because they think the ranges are innacurate or could change again or are made up or whatever.  This dissappoints me because this is probably the most well researched part of collecting right now, yet because someone said "this" or someone said "that", some people are willing to take that with higher meaning than ALL the factual information that it is built on.

Our hobby would also survive if people didn't collect radars, changeovers, or even prefixes in particular.  What I want to know is IF you think replacements are bulls**t, I want to know WHY. I am sitting here defending them with a solid case built, and the nay-sayers have what to go on?  (PS:Moderators, the filter doesn't pick up "bulls**t")

Second, if anyone can find a note
BEY 2005 forward, or
ALB 4Million or forward, OR
any BABN Upgraded $5
that does not fall into a 40/on matrix as described in any one of my papers, or the 5/on miniature reams,

I will give $100 by EMT to the first person who can find one.

There is my challenge to all of you.

TO GIVE ME YOUR ADDRESS PLEASE

Roberto- this includes the miniature reams, which are grouped together to form 40,000.

PS: I re-posted that BABN $10 info for you (and others).

Send me what you have... and I will check it.

I think they should just do away with all replacement notes, inserts, just record the errors in a log at the printers and the BOC as to what notes screwed up during printing. Either just reprint the same notes with the same serial numbers as before or just skip the whole lot and have a gap, i.e. if notes AOF9000000-AOF9000999 screwed up, just have a gap from AOF89999999-AOF9001000, no collector is going to know these notes in this printing range screwed up because we're talking about only 1000 notes, even if there was a 10,000 note gap, nobody would know, because we can't see every $5 note that was printed. The missing notes could just be in general circulation if we didn't know they were pulled. Do you know where note AOG77864509 is?

That way nobody would be doing brick searches anymore for replacements/inserts. They would only be looking for radars. If the BOC pulled all the radars and ladders, solid numbers, number one notes then nobody would be buying new bricks. I wonder if the BOC would do that because if they are aware that brick searchers are a teller's worst nightmare, they might consider it. Think of it, they have to place a spacial order to get the bricks, the brick searcher goes through it, hands it back to the bank, then somebody has to count all those notes by hand, which could take an hour or more, since most auto counting machines jam with new notes. I think most brick searchers pull only a few notes out of a 1000.

For your information I have returned during my brick searches well over a million dollars easily and never once, not once has a money counter jammed.  In most cases I am taken into the vault while it is counted and I have seen 2 tellers working together counting and banding 100 note bundles totally over 100K in less than 5 minutes.

FRIEDSQUID

I dunno, everytime they received new money either U.S. or Canadian and I want to buy some, they gripe about how their machines jam. I've even seen them try to put them in the machines and they jam all the time. So they end up hand counting them, takes forever. Maybe their machines are old or dirty, I don't know, but at most banks I've been at, they don't work so hot. They say it works better with circulated notes, not new. But that's just my banks in my area.

Hudson,

One of my problems with inserts is that the list that Gilles has will never be complete.  While I agree that what is on the list are proven inserts, I don't believe the list contains ALL inserts.  I like to collect one of everything, and with insert collecting, I know I will never have one of every insert because nobody will ever know every insert range.  Do we even know what percentage of insert ranges have been discovered?

I actually believe brick searching is bad for our hobby.  Brick searchers remove the cool notes and leave less for the general public to stumble across.  A friend of mine starting collecting because he came across a solid digit radar one day and decided to hold on to it.  Had the brick that note came from been searched, he may have never enterred the hobby.

Brad

Interesting point...  about the searchers robbing the bricks.

As far as the replacements go, all I can really say is that this is an extremely well researched aspect of the hobby (possibly more than anything else before- in regards to amount of people working on it (120+) and hours of analysis put in (countless).
Have we got them all? Of course not. 
Have we properly identified what we found?  Yes.

I do see your point though.  Finding radars in circulation is alot harder than finding repeaters ABCZABC for a parallel example.

Really mon,

"My total is 9 bricks over the last 10 years mon, the last 2 AOP bricks were perfect...no inserts."

It would be interesting to find out how many bricks have been serached versus those making it into circulation. In reality, there are more than plenty of bricks that make it out in circulation. So if a tree falls in the forest, how many grow-ops can you find? Not many that for sure.
For the last few years I still found 3 inserts, a radar, a repeater, and a counterfeit in circulation by accident.

As to Jamming notes;
My favorite smiley TDCT teller says they don't mind me buying and returning the notes since thier branch goes through a high volume, so they must have a good quality note counting machine. See no jams yet.
"So feel free to order other denominations. $11 please."  

'We'd be jammin now.'
PD

I actually believe brick searching is bad for our hobby.  Brick searchers remove the cool notes and leave less for the general public to stumble across.  A friend of mine starting collecting because he came across a solid digit radar one day and decided to hold on to it.  Had the brick that note came from been searched, he may have never enterred the hobby.

Brad

The percentate of "good" notes "stolen" by brick researchers is negligible in regard of the total number of bricks released by the BoC.  Think that there is 10 000 bricks for each prefix whereas the total number of bricks researched could perhaps be somewhere between 100 and 200 per week, for all the country. Maybe 300, I cannot figure exactly.  Total:  maybe 10 000 to 15 000 bricks for a year. 

And how many prefixes are released in a year, for all denominations?  20?,  30?, 40?.  So we can find that in the best case, about 1% of ALL notes are researched.  That's leave a lot of room for all we don't know and will never know.  A proof?  There is many solid radars which are found in circulation with a VF, F even VG grade... .  And there is many insert notes and ranges that we will never know their existence... . 

Somebody has to get a job at the BOC so you can pull "all" radars/solids/ladders/inserts. You'd have access to everything before it gets out into general circulation!

omebody has to get a job at the BOC so you can pull "all" radars/solids/ladders/inserts. You'd have access to everything before it gets out into general circulation!

This HAS happened and it is NOT a good thing.... Take my word on it!!!!!!

Would you like a single person to monopolize a big aspect of the rare notes? The Solids, Millions, Ladders and 2-Digit Radars are like a pat on the back for Brick Searchers.

If you are lucky enough to get one (VERY VERY RARE!!!) Then it helps pay the rising costs of brick searching.

It is estimated that Bricks searchers cover at MOST about 10% of all the bricks searched. So all the good notes that enter circulation is actually quite staggering. We have all heard about people getting Solids, Millions and Ladder's getting spit out of ATM's. 

I actually believe brick searching is bad for our hobby.

You know Brad, I never used to look at things this way...but I'm beginning to see your point.

I think there are far too many notes on the market and far too few collectors to adequately absorb them.  As I've said in the past, there are only a limited number of asterisk replacements that are truly limited in their availability.  There are many, many, many and many more new Journey insert replacements that will be announced/available and yet they sell at huge premiums. I just can't rationalize the costs and I'm flabbergasted at how many other collectors cough up such hefty premiums for a recently discovered insert!

This frequently puzzles me.  I would never spend the premiums$ collectors are currently spending for some very recent $5.00 inserts.  It just blows me away!  And I often think that if the money currently spent on a post designated serial numbered note that hits some insert range (which is too similar to its  non-replacement  counterpart) then more money would be freed up to scarcer prefixes, rarer series, and actually designated asterisk replacements.  If you want to see a bizarre discrepancy in replacements that have X as a designation and ones that don't ...just take a gander at the Birds $5.00  I find it a stretch to understand how someone would pay such a huge premium because a Bird $5 serial number falls within a certain numbered range-- and yet has no other striking feature to distinguish it from the common rabble! 

I would go for the X note any day.  I guess I'm old fashioned..but that's where I'd bank my limited resources. I still cannot comprehend the fury over today's inserts...and I still feel somewhat alarmed at the prices being paid for them!  How does that impact the really scarce/rare notes we so seldom see auctioned (eg in the 1954 series?)

I think a bit has to do with speculation. To illustrate my point:

When I sold my HOG replacements for $22.50 to forum members.... I never realized that only a slim amount would ever be found.
Someone made a mint off of me.  That could have been anyone.

Similarily, there are hardly any HOP replacements known, I certainly have never owned one. When they are new, everyone knows that more could be found. BUT are more found?  That is the root of the issue.

Sometimes more are found, and sometimes not.


Anyway, I do see your point.  It is very claer though that there are a few people who do not collect replacements because of the points you say, nevermind the note's actual designation.  That is fine, just like I don't collect changeovers.    Why? It's my opinion of what I like to collect. I also don't collect rotators, but the prices people pay.  I DO collect radars, and I will pay big bucks for one I need.

That is what it comes down to- if it is an area of your collection, then these prices might not seem so ridiculous.  Whether you (anyone) agrees with it or not, replacement notes are a part of the hobby- and as collectors learn about the significance of which notes are which, and how rare they can be in many cases, their choices in note purchasing are influenced.

The only negative voices about replacements so far (other than from people who just don't collect them) appear to be frustrated on the basis "we cannot know for sure if we got them all".  This has come from a couple people. 
However in the same sentance, they are in agreement with the numbers and the corrections that were made - because they are for the betterment of the hobby.

Here is the point:
Ranges don't "change", they get corrected. Once a proper ream range is proven to be sheet replacements, it will not change.  It may be added to, but the base remains. 
If a ream is discovered to be 40,000 instead of 45,000 notes, then an actual change happens. (Because the replacement range was not based on proper ream size).

If a Range goes from 45,000 to 1000.   WOAH- Dont worry--  This is from recalling the data to determine how the notes were placed, where they were found. In this case, the notes were found with differing FP/BP from the mother brick, and were all in a range of 1000 notes.   Sheet replacement evidence is violated, thus they are Single Note Replacements (s.n.r).  IF YOU found replacements and had them reprted to Gilles, then the range would encompass your notes still.  So no one is suddenly realizing that their found replacements are now suddenly not on the list.
For the Record: As of this list (with the follow up correction letter), there will be no more retroactive changes.

The Corrections have been made, and now we have the knowledge to get it right the first time.

Sorry I kind of brought this a bit off topic, but I think this is valuable to know.

Cheers everyone.