The Pricing Panel

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So when you said this "No one knows how many exist, so the rest is educated guess work" you meant no one knows for certain how many exist in a certain grade, please confirm. Also do you agree that even grading firms will disagree with one another so I question the whole notion of certainty myself. We even have dealers and top collectors here with different opinions on what is meant by GEM UNC.

I was glad to see you recognize the work registry done in the CPMS newsletters, some of us rely on it as a basis to reason out population info.


Troy

No one knows how many exist, so the rest is educated guess work.

This is what I said, the rest is your statement.

I took many years before joining the CPMS, and told Dick Dunn I would only join if I got a radar number, which is did (1221). Fits well with my CNA number (11111).

There is no definition accepted for Choice, Gem, original, pristine or select Uncirculated notes. Such terms are in the fingers of the person typing them, and usually extra adverbs and adjectives are added to increase the asking price or adding to the perceived value of a particular note.

Neither Charlton nor trends uses the terms outlined above.

I am not sure how this particular "pricing panel" got so far off track.  It will be much better when Troy gets his prices on line to correct the catalogues.

Rick

No Charlton does not use those terms nor does the trends however there has been discussion on this forum about rolling out a 3 level UNC system and many buyers of Canadian currency do use those terms, particularly USA based buyers.  One dealer presented his definition of a GEM UNC note and market premium associated with it and I have provided mine which comes from the most widely used and respected system in the USA.

Continued attempts will fail to personalize the desire for the online market and many of its top buyers to have their sales data captured and reported on rare key issue notes; some of us moved well past that and understand that the prices are those decided by a large group of online auction buyers who use the Internet almost exclusively as their buy channel, the prices are their own. Until now they have had lousy representation which I seek to improve on their behalf. I understand that the online market has not been as important in the past or been so vocal so the years gone by are water under the bridge, there is serious concern looking forward however as the web is now producing more and more very important market data to be factored alongside all the other market data.

Here is where we are:

What will the process will look like for online sellers to submit appropriate data to Bob Graham for consideration? This question is for Don O or any other member of the panel that wants to jump in. This question is in response to Don O's suggestion that this could be done at a minimum to address some of the concerns raised in this thread.

I for one like the suggestion and think it represents the road to market harmony and a Charlton Guide with improved credibility.

Troy

No question the electronic market is important, and is growing in importance.

How do we determine who is qualified to submit prices to Mr. Graham, and has Mr. Graham accepted this task?

Rick

Now that's a post destined to get the job done so we can move on to even bigger and better things one day.

Thank you for that and there are many online buyers will also thank you for that.

The answers will be coming shortly, I am confident.

As for me I am taking the rest of the night off.

Troy

Evening gentlemen...

With respect to the CPMS lists of known notes they are a very helpful aid and base. But it would be unwise to use them as more. Remember, they only represent the notes that were reported to Bob & Harry plus auctions and dealer lists. Some notes have shown up twice in different grades - naturally, it was a higher grade the second time !  I understand there is a move afoot to publish these lists and that is excellent. It is critical, however, that new collectors know, like us old bags, that there are doubtless more notes of every type that are simply unreported. Some collectors are very secretive. It is a start and a great start but not difinitive so collectors ought to be wary of any use of those lists as being implied definitives in order to sell notes as " one of 5 known" etc.  Many notes show up and not all get recorded - this very week I bought a Metroploitan Bank $10 of 1902, Moore signature. The catalogue says " no known issued notes" but that is not super-surprising. I have bought totally unlisted charters over the years. The lists are a work-in-progress and I am certain that neither Harry or Bob, nor the CPMS that publishes them, would suggest otherwise. I am sure they would all be aghast that anyone might infer greater certainty than the simple reporting they provide.

As to eBay sales as a catalogue pricing base there are extreme difficulties but need to be addressed. We all know that an eBay sale might not be concluded; the item might be returned, thus no real sale; often there are no grades even 'suggested'; we have no real knowledge of the grade of the note. Auctions and dealer lists have similar reliability issues but the Editor and others have a better sense of the certainty and reliability of other sales. How to consider eBay AND factor it is the challenge. That is Bob's challenge !!

OleDon

Hi Don,

The registers are being used only in the context you mentioned by those that I know; what you said is well known to most of us.  They do however represent the best available information we have and there is an increasing number of traders reporting notes to them to improve the data.

The comment about an eBay sale potentially not concluding is not a concern I share above any other market or sales channel with less than 0.8% of my sales falling into this category, unfortuntely I don't have the other sellers 'sale not completed' %.  I recognize the online market is larger than me.

I do understand the issue that some notes may not be graded, however that is a less of an issue where only a few are known and close to a non issue if the note is the only one known. The important thing is to get the sales data captured and reflected in the guide on a go forward basis.

Now that we have established that eBay results need to be factored (it was clear they were not being factored before <at least not properly> even though it was suggested they were) I am definitely prepared to settle down and let everyone reflect on this for a few weeks to think about what comes next.

In the meantime it would be good to decide who inside the panel is going to make sure all this data is properly represented and not lost in process or lack thereof.  As you can appreciate given the history of this discussion, and several attempts by others to silence it, there is not a high degree of confidence at present that this will take care of itself.

I would like to see this through end to end so at the end of the day collectors who expressed concerns like the one who started this entire thread can breathe a sigh of relief.  It is this large and rapidly growing group of collectors who seek evolutionary steps that I serve and represent and will continue to serve and represent. Some of us who deal are also hardcore collectors so the passion runs deep on this entire matter on several different levels.

If I put on strictly my collectors hat the questions that have been asked to date are elementary and do not represent the full scope of concerns that exist, especially on the horizon of the upcoming 5th edition of the chartered note guide. I am hoping the right pricing panel is in place (ie. they are prepared to take on the new challenges before them), everyone then contributes, little or no blanket formulas are applied, online sales are factored of rare key issue chartered. Given that the guide is produced 2 or 3 times a decade a suggestion about how to factor prices year over year (as a simple baseline method in between new versions of the guide) may be useful.

There has also been a huge amount of ABNC Chartered Specimen wholesaler sales activity that should be captured. I have a lot of data as it relates to many Nova Scotia/ NS Jamaica/Halifax issue notes, Bank of Toronto & Bank of Montreal.

Obviously as you well know Chuck is going to have some important current data of his own coming from Torex.

The expectations are high as everyone knows the chartered market is on fire and the guide long overdue and essentially currently obsolete.

The fact that it is so highly anticipated creates an even greater responsibility to not disappoint. The anticipation itself is evidence of market health.

Troy