Hi Tom,
Now that I have shaken off the most amazing outdoor event I have ever seen, a Rolling Stones concert with about 90,000 people there, let me say that I think your last post is really good one and represents precisely the right kind of resistence and challenge which is healthy for the market. I also personally appreciate you investing the time to craft the reply that you did. There are a lot of people, many of whom are advanced collectors and dealers, watching this thread carefully.
The issue is raised is not whether the price guide is a guideline (as RS_Dude said), that is understood by everyone, so let's get that off the table. The issue is also not grading, which is imperfect in every market, so lets get that off the table. This issue is not as simple as whether or not time is needed to compile info, print texts and distribute them, if this is part of the problem then that needs to be corrected with forward thinking. Everyone understands this too, so let's get that off the table.
The issue raised (as evidenced by the title of this entire thread) by someone other than me is and was the credibility of the pricing panel and how accurate the prices are as presented to us, by them, in an ever changing market. Leadership will become an even more difficult challenge as the market continues to grow internationally, the market has historically considered those on the panel very credible leaders. The market now has an increasing level of questions and concerns it is asserting. A pure and important issue to many at the heart of the hobby and industry that will no longer tolerate being swept aside, canned responses that used to work are not going to cut it anymore.
I think if I had to take this one on in the format you suggested Tom, 3 or 4 sentences, as simple talk as possible on a topic that has some complexity, it might go something like this (bear with me, its early, and I have had about 5 hours sleep):
1) Times have changed, the Internet (what I call the Mass Market) has increased demand more than any other time in the history of our hobby/industry, supply is at an all time low, yet prices reflected in the guide do not reflect an increasing year over year growth rate which correlates with the increase in demand (10% might the # used unjustiably and incorrectly every year to appreciate a rare key issue when demand for it has grown by triple to quadruple digits/%'s).
2) If all (or nearly all) available notes from a very rare, very key issue are presold at prices 20-40% above 18th edition price to advanced collectors (note these people are not idiots and have been collecting their entire life, many are "Connoisseurs") who also consider their collectables investments (like most collectors who are closet investors do too), then this is what the note is worth and should be priced as such in the guide.
3) The market is no longer "chugging along" as the train it once was, it is flying now because of the Internet and its ability to bring in a huge # of new collectors and investors; the market needs the right fuel and pilots to keep it in the air; if it doesn't receive this the entire market and those leading it are going to lose credibility as confusion worsens about which market is right, the B&M or Internet, and the failure to bring solutions and harmony to this will indeed create new publishing business opportunities and new market leadership opportunities as those who potentially drop the ball, despite all the signs being there, are pushed aside.
4) When similar markets like the USA and Australian (and other former and existing British Commwealth countries) have experienced a similar increase in demand the price guides and experts who compile the pricing have shown no unnecessary hesitation when providing prices in their guides which actually reflect what the market will pay, 30+% yearly increases on very rare key notes in very strong demand & vanishing supply has not resulted in panic, it has instead created a healthier dynamic market (in a market economy panic selling happens when prices are too far ahead of demand resulting in falling not increasing pricing; with increased prices you will get some people selling to realize gains and market attrition, sure, and so what says economics 101).
I hope this provides a framework for further constructive discussion and I apologize for not keeping this in a simple, easy to follow, step by step analysis/argument in posts prior. And if I am one of the guilty ones you were referring to I will also avoid appearing to be educated or articulate to the best of my ability as I don't want to lose focus of the issue at hand. I am willing to work with determination within the framework you requested, as long as it takes, so long as you believe the approach you suggested is in the best interest of the market and of this forum.
I'd like to see the panel address the valid concerns raised; from this good things will come.
Troy
p.s.
Gary: I agree with what was provided already as the definition of an Original UNC by Venga adding to it, for the most part, the Charlton explanation of UNC. I also do not have anything to add to the already large body of information and education the grandmasters who built this industry haven't already said on this topic.
