Appreciating Notes

News: Registration is free here at the CPMF!

With the new Charlton Catalogue soon to be released I'd like to hear some commentary on which notes people think will see the strongest appreciation. Not only dollar wise but on a percentage basis.

e.g.

perhaps a '37 Osborne $ 50 in UNC may go to 11K an appreciation of 10%
although a '35 $ 50 in FINE may move from $ 1875 to $ 2250 an appreciation of 20% but only 1/3 the appreciation in dollars.

I'm not saying this will happen but is a possible example.

Is there anyone out there that think particular notes are overpriced and may well or SHOULD decline in the upcoming edition....

comments....

Thankyou
Andrew

To answer your first question - I think that most of the notes will appreciate 10-15% as expected. The BELs BERs will increase by a couple 100 percent while the other rare 2001 $10s will significantly.

Now to answer the other question...

Personally, I think that the 1954 $100s (all three signatures) as well as the 1975 $50s (BC-51a-i and BC-51b) and 1975 $100s (BC-52a-i and BC-52b) are overpriced and selling well below book (in unc). And if they are in AU and lower they just don't sell for any price!

These notes sell lower than book at shows, between collectors and especially on ebay. The obvious reason is that these notes were mostly all full runs, with the exception of the 1975 $100 AJC and some others, but still all the notes mentioned are often selling for about 50% of the book price on ebay and between collectors - but sell a little better at shows but still less than book. In addition, I have found that dealers tend to steer clear of these common notes and offer little to nothing for them in Unc condition.

Though true, the book price will not decrease in the next issue rather will maintain the same price but will continue to sell below book.

Don't forget the 1935 series, seems that every year they keep getting rarer and prices keep increasing. I look forward to see what the prices will be for the $25 issue in the 2007 book.

I'm expecting about $500 - $1000 increase the 1935 $25 English issue, if it goes up anymore it will get fairly unattainable for my future collection.

1954 replacement A/M only 8000 printed and UNC priced at 550 compared to the devils face B/C replacement 1 dollar A/A with 7000 printed priced at 3000 for an UNC or if you look at the other end of the scale 400 for a VG compared to 35 bucks something is toatally off on the price of this note

all the 1937 osborne /towers notes hardly moved last year it is time for at least a 25% increase across the board for these notes as well

all the 1937 osborne /towers notes hardly moved last year it is time for at least a 25% increase across the board for these notes as well

Generally speaking I don't think that series will move a lot with some exceptions.

$ 2 Oz  EF and better are way too low

$ 50 Oz  F and better are too low. VG's are fairly common. Although Don Olmstead had 2 at the Hamilton show and they were priced at $ 680. A far cry from the $ 375 book. I bought a VF earlier in the year. Not a very good one, no better than VF. Lots of wrinkles and very clean and poorly centered. But VF's are seldom seen so I bit the bullett and bought it.

$ 100 Oz  VF and better are going to skyrocket. I think your looking at VF 1250,2000,3500,5000 UNC. VG's and Fines still seem reasonably easy to find

$ 1000 Oz VG-EF I believe will see large percentage increases, with substantial dollar increases in the AU and UNC.


I think you will only see marginal movement in the $ 1, 5, 10, 20

The most underrated material?  My vote would be the back-of-the-book stuff (i.e. radars, low-numbers, error notes).

Such as this...
I got this on the weekend in Hamilton. Not a very high grade but low numbers in the old notes are pretty rare.

Is there anyone out there that think particular notes are overpriced and may well or SHOULD decline in the upcoming edition

I think all $1000 notes are WAY OVERPRICED -- I have never seen them sell for near what Charlton states their at.  Where Charlton gets their market value of $100 to $1000 notes (54 up) is beyond me!!

I'm surprised there is any demand for $100 in 1937 -- except for the fact that the J MacDonald portrait is a departure from the other denominations.  I can see Osborne notes going up though.

The only notes that seems worthy of interest (in the higher denominations) are the 1935 $25 (rare commemorative note), $50 (the portrait of the future king) and the $500 (because of its odd denomination) -- but I guess all 35's are coveted by collectors.  And they should be since they were issued for such a short period of time, and have an odd colour code, and cool portraits/reverse designs.

You see far too many $100 notes (1954/1975) and Charlton even admits "lower grade notes are not collectable and command no premium"

The 1988 $100 performance is probably hurt by the lacklustre performance of its predecessors.  Why the Hidden BPN AJX is so low... is likely due to everyone's avoidance of the $100's period (knowing their low desirability).  Like the $2.00 AUG- AUN their numbers are unknown. You would think it would sell for much higher...but I see the same nice specimens in certain highly regarded dealer's stock every time I go to a TNS show.  They don't move well at all-- and they often sell at less than BV on eBay.  

I believe all the Bird notes are overpriced but the $2.00 series mentioned above which might increase some more (esp the mixed up signatures).  You rarely see the change-overs (such as EGR or CBH) achieve book when auctioned on eBay.

I feel Birds are generally overpriced because they were made so well -- their paper was thick and their printing was normally quite well centered -- etc.  The exception is the $10 Bonin Thiessen ATX which seems underpriced still (& the BDH will likely go up too).  I don't understand the attraction of the $20 note when "billions" were printed.  It seems like collectors are really "reaching" when they covet notes with or without BPN's or serifs.    What interests me with the Birds series are any errors because you don't see them too often (except the odd minor error which is interesting), bleed through, or off-set from the ink not setting.

I'm actually surprised that the new type of insert (undesignated-- but for a number range) has such a high book value.  Maybe this is more a reflection on who is involved in the pricing panel than the reality?  Its surprising the X notes don't perform better when this is the last time we see them.

1979 regular $5 and $20's have flooded the market.  The 1973 $1.00 PA note seems so overpriced its laughable.  Why would 9 million notes have such a premium?  (Again the pricing panel???) You see them all the time on eBay (below book).  You see a lot of 1967 MP notes below book too.  

I agree with Rachelprivates that the "back of the book stuff" is underrated but disagree with his assessment of the 74 $2.00 R/S test note and his assessment that the 1954 $1.00 *AM note is almost commonplace.  I found one in 2004 and haven't seen 1 at a show since.  There are 3 consecutives being offered for $1500 (I believe) on eBay right now -- and he is right -- they likely won't sell -- but a lot of eBayers avoid listings around book.  Sure there may be quite a few good examples owned or known-- but their book seems way out of wack.  I always notice when either a *A/M or R/S goes up for auction (on Ebay or elsewhere) and I really don't see it that often (more *I/O than *A/M).  There may be quite a few R/S test notes around but they are test notes after all (probably the last test notes).

Some of Charlton's pricing makes sense and some of it seems like it was "wishful thinking" esp for the higher denominations.  I can understand some demand for the higher denominations in the older issues since they were so rarely kept.  These days the higher denominations in 54 and up seem as common as grass.  That's one collector's opinion...

I dont think the 1973 PA note are overpriced. There were supposedly 9 million printed but i dont think all 9 million were ever circulated and few were even hung onto. Actually PA notes are not that easy to find especially in the higher grades, you shouldn't have too much difficulty finding PA notes in F or VF but good luck finding one in UNC. There really aren't that many PA notes around anymore. I do expect the prices for this one to go up more.

These are for sale on EBay for $ 745.00 CAD. 3 Consecutive UNC's with the middle a radar.
Three at $ 275 each is $ 825. So they are listed under book and one is a radar
They have been for sale for quite sometime too.
This issue personally holds very little interest for me.
I have 30-40 UNC's that my Dad saved back when they went out of circulation few replacements but I don't actively collect the '73 $ 1

Two other notes:

If you do purchase a $100 note keep in mind you'll  be lucky to see 70% book (as most dealers would offer) since so few want them.  (Who knows?  maybe this is an investment opportunity!? )

And yes: the 2001 Journey $10 have "increase in BV" written all over them.  As we all seem to know -- poorly printed, easily & overly counterfieted, and short "shelf-life"  spells highly desired.  Especially the 2003 and missing prefixes, and the fact they were "recalled."  The biggest gains will show for 03 BER (& likely 04BER &BET), BEL, BEP and J/D BEK insert or non-insert (all conditions). It only stands to reason that the Knight/Thiessen versions will all go up as well (esp FDY and replacements).  Radars of these $10 were selling for $40 at the last TNS show. All change-overs have potential but FEN's seem over priced in light of an eBayer continually dumping them in quantity on eBay.

We should see similar performance for the $5.00 next year when the modified version comes in its place. Look out for AOB insert jumps, AOF, and jumps in most K/D notes.  The 2004 HOH (05 HOH inserts) and the HOG inserts are ones to look out for too.

Easy James! Lay off those $1000 dollar bills, their may favourite and don't deserve your ridicule Now my notes are offended!
      As for the inserts, I think that the pricing has nothing to do with the pricing panel - simply a result of supply and demand. Look at it this way, there are fairly few 'brick hunters' since a large capital is necessary and their are several outrageous fees involved making 'hunting' very very unattractive and difficult. Thus, even though some of the inserts have ranges of 100,000+, many of the notes do not get into collector's hands rather are sent into circulation.

Example: If a certain prefix has a 60,000 insert range but only a 1000 (if that!) are picked up by collectors. Therefore there is several thousand collectors (especially with ebay) searching for only a 1000 insert notes in that particular prefix for their own collection. That is why they are price the way they are. I really think that they are booked at a fair price. Just my opinion, but I do agree about those high denomination notes.

I really do believe that 73 PA's are like 67 MP's --  I think there were many that were hoarded and if the book reflected any kind of market reality we'd see them come down (as they should). Market desire and demand has waned considerably. Maybe UNC are rare but are they really worth $275?  

Look at the 1954 B/C $2.00 IB (for $100)  or the I/C $5.00  (for $500) So much more rare and hard to find in any condition.  But does the book reflect the true nature of how demand?  Devil's faces were printed in the millions yet there seems to be no end in sight of their demand (why? there's a world market for them!)

Although only 2.72 million MP's were printed 3 dealers turned my AU+ specimen down last TNS show.  Perhaps change-overs and short issues are more susceptible to market saturation/ supply and demand -then replacements, or other rarities...

Easy James! Lay off those $1000 dollar bills, their may favourite and don't deserve your ridicule  Now my notes are offended!

Oli

I'm not in the least bit "worked up" about this topic -- but why anyone would sink that kind of coin on a note with my favourite bird on it (the pine grosbeak)-- is totally beyond me (unless its an absolutely stellar EKX I suppose).  Oh I know its the portrait of the queen!

Must have money to burn!  

But then again -- your my banker-- so I WILL  lay off thos beautiful notes of yours!