The Pricing Panel

News: Registration is free here at the CPMF!

If somebody doesn't like the Charlton, then for heaven's sake, DON'T buy it and quit whining!

Damn! How simple! Just ignore the problem.Love it or leave it!

Rather easy solution but probably the least acceptable,certainly the cop out method, how dear ole dad would put it.

Charlton,to maintain its business,a leadership position in the audience looking for guidance to current market pricing of Canadian banknotes,must adapt to ever changing attitudes,and trends in the market place.To do otherwise,is a disservice to the paper collecting community,and ulimately to themselves.
Falling from a position of top dog to one of potential bankruptcy because of a love it or leave it attitude is one I would never put forward-not to them.
Can't see them appreciating such a hazardous suggestion.

To advocate a love it or leave it mentality surely will be the death of any business not willing to change with the market place.I am sure I need not list hundreds of companies that have failed for just this very reason.

Seems to me a more reflective pricing panel of current trends would include a cross section of ebay sellers, collectors and dealers.

There are many variables to why a particular note sells so much higher than current book list prices.To single out anomalies on ebay is plain unfair,I've seen dealers sell 50% above book on a note,turn around and say they will buy back at below book price.I've tested this theory out.

In order for ANY business to survive they must adapt to the ever changing world of economics.One that has become a force to be reckoned with is the online sale of goods,specifically paper money.It must be dealt with.How is the question.

I have put forth a good starting solution.A X section of the community on a revamped Pricing Panel.

Many here have ignored the fact that past members of this panel have quit out of fustration.They were tired of being asked to contribute,then have their reco's dismissed as irrelevant.
Several I spoke with are at their wits end.All stated the situation needs resolving.
I personally know past members of this panel who refused to participate any longer.

Before I'm attacked,I LOVE THE GUIDE,for all its flaws.I just would like to see it improved.
Just as I love my country,and would NEVER betray it,I will still involve myself in trying to make it a better place,although imo it is the BEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD!

respectfully runningonempty

I don't think I said "ignore it". I think I said, suggest a better way, or express your individual note concerns to the someone on the pricing panel.

What I don't believe is helpful, is complaining about a few notes and implying the whole book is bad because the "system" fails sometimes.

How SHOULD it be done? That's not ignoring it, that's asking for constructive suggestions. If it was simple to improve, I'm fairly sure changes would be made quickly. Maybe the solution is painfully obvious to you, but it sure eludes me.

Try finding out how the system works and then suggest improvements, or if you know of something similar, point the panel to how that works and I'm sure they'll quickly adopt it.

I know that the one year I tried to help out on the panel it was extremely overwhilming and I had to drop out. I KNOW it's not easy so don't think it is. Just point them in the right direction.

That bait I will take, all of it.

I'll be the first to volunteer the answer to the question on how it should be done and I am willing to provide a compass and map on what direction to follow. I am offering to do this because it was just requested and I am completely undeterred by the challenge.

What I need is full disclosure of the current process before beginning the journey.

Just yesterday I was doing research on how we should be handling the registers and I contacted the founders of this model http://www.donckelly.com/4th_ed_promo.html  which I believe is more advanced than what we are doing here in Canada.

Challenge accepted.


Troy.

Don't think it was a "challenge" either. Just thought we could have some constructive discussions on how to make it better instead of just complaining.

Seems to me a database to do this would require tracking every single note of every issuer/denomination/series/type/signature combination/prefix/variation with the ability to average the known sales value, with each sale adjusted for inflation tied to the date of sale, news of changes in official "printed" and "released" numbers, new highs and lows, and discovery of hordes, while all staying statistically significant in sample size. Then, of course, there's the whole mathematics around trending and forecasting which is a science they didn't teach when I was in college.

Add to the project the cost of the computers, data storage and backup, cost of programming, initial data acquisition, data entry, on-going data acquisition costs (hopefully real-time feeds from eBay, and all auctions, but I’m not sure how you’d get dealers across Canada to submit their daily sales numbers).

It would definitely be better than the current method of printing out a survey of about 75 pages, and getting a panel of 10 or so of the most knowledgeable people in the business to fill in their “take” and then working out a consensus. At least that’s how I think it’s done. I found out how little I really knew about the hobby when I got my survey, and I only got a very small sub-section that I though I knew something about.

Subscriptions could be sold for “real-time” data on-line, and quarterly updates via discs (likely DVDs as I doubt a CD could hold that much data) and annual updates via discs, PDF or (yuck) printed book. In fact, you could argue that it’s not hugely different than one of my businesses (www.phochron.com) and I certainly have the digital publishing and internet software skills down pat.

I like the “facts” based database solution, but it certainly is beyond my computer skills and my ability to finance. I’d love to work with someone like Troy and Charlton to develop such a thing (and hey, then we could take on US and World Currencies too).

It does not therefore follow that for the Charlton guide pricing panel to allocate proper respect and consideration to the eBay market an undertaking such as the one you described is required. What you described would of course be an extremely useful and marketable informational tool with commercial potential but it is not what is required to get to 1st base.

What they need is someone on the inside with strong credentials and experience who can give recommendations on the reality of the online market and have sufficient evidence, passion and ability to influence outcome. How he or she gathers the evidence could be in various formats, a database (similar to the one you outlined) being the magical ideal, vast current direct experience being the more practical initial contribution. For example if the panel recommends a price of $9000 on an UNC 1935 $1000 this new person might be able to provide several recent examples of the note selling at $12,000 CDN. Statistically significant on this issue? Of course it is and extremely significant at that. Perhaps if the person offered to buy all available $1000 1935's in UNC "they" (the same people that have "WANTED" beside this note in their print ads) have laying around from panel members at $10,000-$11,000 CDN a piece it might add some credibility to the opinion. Or the names of the clients still waiting for theirs at $12,000 CDN. Perhaps this person might also be able to provide insight on other issues like the private sale prices of the 1935 $500 in VF/EF at prices far above what is reported in the new guide, significant? Well yeah, it is the only one available in that grade.

A reality check is needed on many, many key issues. The notes listed above are a small sample.
The 1st step is to bring someone else inside, from that changes/improvements would be recommended and undertaken. It may be discovered that 1/2 the (perception) problems may go away with increased transparency, I am not sure yet.

I will tell you I know for certain there is an emerging credibility problem with Charlton pricing when I get emails like this in the morning from buyers of the "new" price guide, and this collector is very experienced in high end material:

From: eBay Member: xxxxxxxxxx [mailto:member@ebay.ca]  
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 5:59 AM
To: troy@xxxxxxxxx
Subject: Question for item #xxxxxx - xxxxxxxxx

Hi Troy,  

Greetings, have not spoke to you for awhile (since the beautiful shinplaster I purchased), but follow your auctions, glad to see you are doing very well with your banknote business.  
Would like your opinion if you dont mind on the following:  
A friend of mine is interesting in purchasing a $1000 1937 note, represented as UNC. He asked me what I thought a fair price was (I had no idea) as I dont recall any recent comparable sales.  

Would you mind giving me your opinion on the market value of this note.  

Thanks, Steve


I am game for a project that would help the industry grow greatly (including an expansion of the pricing panel) and I am willing to review ideas and ventures to contribute where I can.

I am currently studying (and now going inside) other international markets/models such as the US, UK and Australian to attempt to have a more global view/vision of where we need to go.

I am hopeful there are others doing the same because pretending there isn't an emerging problem as raised by the original poster is only going to make this worse.

We should rally around the Charlton guide to see if it is willing to evolve with the market and improve its understanding of the market it serves.

Troy

This thread starts with the sentence..."take note of" etc.

I'm not sure if everyone knows who is being talked about but the purchase of an 18th edition should make it more clear (since the Pricing Panel names are openly published in the first page of Charlton catalogue).

Some on this thread share their diatribe for Charlton "Pricing Panel" and some provide support.

Oh what to do what to do.....?!

Sudzee and Tom and Paul...you make "cents" to me.

;)eastguy

Pricing panel is always overpriced on Ebay. I am not a Charlton defender as many here know, but I must admit it puts relative good prices for PAST issue like 1935, 1937, 1954 etc...The charlton's problem is for NEW issues...I would not pay 2200$ for a 2$ English Unc 1935 when I can find it for 1400$. I know dealers that sell this bill for that price...YES IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND RARE BILLS AT CHARLTON PRICE WITHOUT BUYING BY EBAY. you want to see... looks the link below, there's a lot of dealers like that in Canada and many are not on Internet...

http://cpnum.qc.ca/PDF%20Files/C&P_Catalogue_2005_47-64.pdf

I understand that not everyone will grasp the concept of why it is important to allocate proper consideration to the largest liquid market of collectible Canadian Currency in the world. It doesn't mean it becomes the sole driver of valuations, it means it becomes important and should be treated as such. It has, is and will continue to change the face of our industry/hobby; more so with every day that passes. The Internet, eBay in particular are now absolutely synonymous with the term "Mass Market". Tell me an industry where the "Mass Market" isn't important, if one exists, it isn't this one.

I also could not disagree with anyone more than I disagree with you Bitburger on the topic of the problem of unreliable pricing not being applicable to "past issues" - in fact the exact opposite is true, when I know for absolute certainty with the evidence to back it up that it is. That is not to say I think any less of you, I think you are heck of a forum member and I generally agree with what you have to say.

The dealer you referenced does use eBay as a viable sales channel from time to time and I know them extremely well on an ambitious transactional level. No (not many) other B&M dealer in Canada ("like that") has a similar inventory. The dealer you referenced has them all beat by miles and miles. To further stress this point what you see is not the whole iceberg of inventory either - not even close.

The note you referenced I would probably have signed off on $1500 in UNC (Charlton Price), no one would have had any grief from me on that issue. Move up the chain to the key notes in the same series $25, $50 , $100 , $500 and $1000's and that is a different story.  I know what the market will pay on ALL AVAILABLE French $25's in AU or UNC, same with the $50-$1000 in both language varieties.

My beef is with rare, key issues in strong demand and vanishing supply; I believe the pricing panel is losing touch with what this stuff is worth and will actually have to check now with those that do know if they want to know how much the market will pay. There are some very experienced people on the panel who have made gigantic contributions to the industry (in fact they built it).  They also have knowledge and a historical perspective which is unmatched that will continue to serve as an essential mission critical ingredient to the market.  However to improve the credibility of the Charlton guide in a rapidly evolving market a modernization of the approach is in order and I have faith this will happen before long.

The online market, with eBay at the head of it, is due it's respect and it will have it from the market one way or another. It has great relevance to valuations. When one of the largest dealers in Canada sells me a note for $1300 they haven't handled in a few years and they think is scarce and I pay them everything they wanted for it and I know it is scarce alright with 6 (now 7) examples known to exist (not reflected in the guide) and I present this note with very accurate information & disclosure to the market where hundreds of people have considered the value over 10 days and decide it's worth $5000 CDN in a no reserve contest. The dealer who sold it (you know the ones that tell you they have been in it for 25+ years and told me that when they wanted a "strong price" of $1300; but what grade is it I ask  "$1300 is the grade" I am told with strength in the voice...that is over book price I might add), what do you think they think it's worth now?  Answer: $5000.   How can the market be sure of that #?  Well I will take the other 6 at $4000 a piece (assumes identical or better grade), One I will keep for myself and the other 5 sold at $5000 each - case closed. Of the other 6 examples known none are available (to the best of my knowledge) and that's unfortunate because the 2nd place bidder is still waiting on his at the same price.

Does that make the dealer who sold it an idiot? NO, not in the least, that makes them a victim of market inefficiency and at a loss of understanding because of poor sharing of information in a rapidly changing market (fueled by the power of the Internet and it's incredible market reach and ability to attract new collectors to the industry resulting in sharp increases in DEMAND and reduced SUPPLY) and overall market inefficiency.

What about B&M dealers selling rare Bank of Toronto notes with less than a dozen examples known of each for a few hundred bucks until they saw the power of the Internet through the eyes of its leading seller, the same notes are now 4 figures or close to it. Then again less than a year ago I saw one person who believed he knew a whole lot about eBay (he had it all figured out he did) and chartered notes sell an early Bank of Toronto note (where 1/2 dozen or less copies existed) for 1/6 or 1/7 of what he now understands it is worth. Challenging the market and everything in it is a natural part of its evolution.

This is the reality of the behavior of a market economy and how the Internet is changing the status quo. I would like to see one market in harmony for valuation purposes as it will serve the industry well.

As we move towards this evolved model some resistence is anticipated and it is a healthy reaction in a well-oiled market economy.

Troy

p.s. runningonempty, regarding your post 2 below this one, as a service to you I will fill that order for an original English UNC $2 1935 at $1500 CDN as one comes into inventory. I will PM you before long when I have one or more available. I don't feel strongly enough about this note being undervalued to put it ahead of your desire to have this note at $1500.

I would not pay 2200$ for a 2$ English Unc 1935 when I can find it for 1400$. I know dealers that sell this bill for that price...YES IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND RARE BILLS AT CHARLTON PRICE WITHOUT BUYING BY EBAY. you want to see... looks the link below, there's a lot of dealers like that in Canada and many are not on Internet...

 http://cpnum.qc.ca/PDF%20Files/C&P_Catalogue_2005_47-64.pdf

Did you physically see the note advertised and as importantly, did you buy it?
I would also disagree that there are "a lot" of dealers selling accurately graded rarer notes at book. *shrug*

Pricing panel is always overpriced on Ebay. I am not a Charlton defender as many here know, but I must admit it puts relative good prices for PAST issue like 1935, 1937, 1954 etc.

I will respectfully disagree.
Who is to say what are "good prices?"
I would suggest it is the market place.And part of that market place,a ever expanding part of that market place is ebay.

I would not pay 2200$ for a 2$ English Unc 1935 when I can find it for 1400$. I know dealers that sell this bill for that price...YES IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND RARE BILLS AT CHARLTON PRICE WITHOUT BUYING BY EBAY. you want to see... looks the link below, there's a lot of dealers like that in Canada and many are not on Internet...  

All is not what it seems ALL the time regarding catalogues.
I did witness the $1935 english $2 sell for a buy it now price of $2200.I personally could not pull the trigger,I can't afford it ,but someone did.
The note looked great as I recall.So where do you draw the line?Obviously this buyer says the note is worth $2200.
Charlton says it's only $1500.

Anyone have a Original Uncirculated 1935 $2.00 note they are willing to sell at $1500? PM me immediately.It is sold!

Point is,Charlton needs a cross section of the largest and current sellers in the market place,along with the "experts" in paper money to contribute on the Pricing Panel.

I submit their are a few that have sold little,compared to leaders in the industry, the last few years still giving their input on prices?

respectfully,runningonempty

I also trend paper money, from 1935 to 1967. Nothing before, nothing after, it is just too large.

Catalogue prices are estimates of the retail, but just an estimate. Doesn't mean you can find one for that price, also doesn't mean one should listen to the bull and pay too much either.

The book is out of date when published, but accurate at the time of gathering the information. He tends to get increases/decreases in per centages, which may not be the way to go.

It is not possible to track every note sold, and it is also not possible to ensure that the results given are true and accurate. Notes sold privately will usually never been known. only those sold in a public auction and/or ebay have firm figures, the rest of the information comes from advertised sales. Dealers tend to keep much information as private as they should to protect the privacy of their client.

The old stuff about if note A trends for $400, I will take them all simply doesn't fit anything.

How many readers here are willing to pay $6 each for 1967 $1 no serial number notes in Unc.?
I did about 6-8 years ago to fill an order, and bought 4,500 of them. Catalogue prices were under $2.

Supply and demand set the prices, trends and catalogues only give an approximate idea.

Rick

Based on the grounds of a lack of evidence & transparency I dispute the claim that 'at the time of gathering the information it is accurate'.  I am not as sure as you are to say the least and it is these kind of generic comments that have a bulls eye on them right now, begging to be tested. To believe this you will need to believe that the panel has an accurate accounting of the affect of increased demand from the Internet. In order for this belief to translate into an opinion with credibility it needs to come with an explananation and valid arguments as to why you think it is accurate at the time of gathering the info and why you think this process has few enough faults to qualify as being "accurate" to those of us who are at the leading edge of challenging the status quo, that may fly with some inexperienced followers who are easily suppresssed, but not now, not anymore and not here. This industry is growing up and getting smarter, call it an evolution not a revolution.

Accurate according to what market reality?  What date was it exactly that the 18th edition prices were "accurate", do you mean on the 1935 $1000, $500, $100, $50, $25 french and english? What about the 1937 $1000 Bank of Canada note in UNC, what about the $1000 Devil? and what about many critical issues in the guide?

This is the crux of the issue being discussed and I am not about to let anything like this go by unchallenged. This process is healthy and should be welcome by all, expecially those on the panel.

If there is not enough support/stomach for a stress test now we can do this some other time, and some other place, but it is inevitable.

Troy.

I couldn't help it.   For the longest time, we collectors complain about the high prices of notes the dealers charge, overnight, we collectors are now complaining the dealers are causing  the charlton to lower the prices ?  Isn't it good news for the collectors ?  Isn't it beautiful that we could stock up good notes before prices catch up ?  
    This is a collectors' website, is it not, Paul ?

The old stuff about if note A trends for $400, I will take them all simply doesn't fit anything.
 
How many readers here are willing to pay $6 each for 1967 $1 no serial number notes in Unc.?
I did about 6-8 years ago to fill an order, and bought 4,500 of them. Catalogue prices were under $2.  

First,I think we need to remember we are talking about scarce notes.I hardly think 1967 1's no s/n qualify as such.
Some may say a 1935  English $2 in ORIGINAL UNTAMPERED UNCIRCULATED CONDITION is not a scarce note.That is a matter of opinion.I say it is indeed scarce at $1500.Anyone that wishes to prove me wrong by selling me one,in the above stated condition,can count it sold,after the verification of such a state.

Let's take this a step further with scarce notes.
Anyone who wishes to sell the following notes at current book has a definite sale.
1).Osbourne/Towers $2 Original Unc-$950.3 please!!
2).English $25 Original Unc$11,000
3).Osborne/Towers $1000 Original Unc $8500-two please!!!
4).1935 $1000 English Original Unc $9000
5).Gordon/Towers JA Original Unc $2000.2 please.

This is a partial list of notes desired by myself and two friends.
I am not trying to turn this into a debate about which notes are under-valued,rather that scarce notes in Original Unc are almost impossible at Catalogue.

Ending this part of my response,I suggest it truly is false to say "The old stuff about if note A trends for $400, I will take them all simply doesn't fit anything." If you can't buy them at...nugh said.
I will up-date you regarding the # of responses I receive to the above offers.

Charlton Press need to revamp the Pricing Panel imo,reflecting a more accurate picture of the market place.
Having spoke with past,fustrated members of the pricing panel,their angst did not come from pricing suggestions  being to high. On the contrary,these members of the community are upstanding and outstanding contributors to the daily activity of paper money transactions,whose contributions were discarded as being out of line-read too high of pricing.

This debate is certainly garnering ideas,suggestions that may be taken to heart by the panel.Lets hope it is taken in the spirit it is given.

respectfully runningonempty

I couldn't help it.   For the longest time, we collectors complain about the high prices of notes the dealers charge, overnight, we collectors are now complaining the dealers are causing  the charlton to lower the prices ?  Isn't it good news for the collectors ?  Isn't it beautiful that we could stock up good notes before prices catch up ?  
     This is a collectors' website, is it not, Paul ?

I think if you knew who I've spoken to you would retract that statement.It is the dealers on the pricing panel,some of the largest by volume,if reputation is a guide,that are trying to raise prices in the Catalogue.At least PAST pricing panel members.I will not speak to current members thoughts as I have had no recent conversations with any of them.
Now given that is a fact,it would be collectors, p/t or small dealers trying to keep the price down.

Where did anyone say dealers are trying to keep the price down?
Perhaps Paul should make this a dealers only website?